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Japanese Mobile Market Forecast (2003-2009) Volume 1 - 2006
Research On Asia, Group, Inc., March 2006, Pages: 81
Mobile Market Forecast (2005-2009)
Due to the merger between au and TU-KA in November 2005, only three mobile operators are delivering their services in Japan’s mobile market. Besides, ATSTEL and NTT DoCoMo, among the three PHS operators (NTT DoCoMo, Willcom, ASTEL) stopped accepting new subscribers on April 20, 2005 and at the end of April 2005 respectively. In the future, Willcom will be the sole supplier of PHS service. YOZAN, which acquired PHS infrastructure from ASTEL Tokyo, is poised to concentrate on WiMAX business. YOZAN launched WiMAX service utilizing PHS base stations in December 2005.
Japan’s mobile market is in a mature phase. New subscriber addition, which posted over 1,000 of increases every year until 1999, has been flat since 2000. However, 2004 was a year of change for mobile telecommunication market in Japan. The 3G technology, which accounted for 20.38% of the market in 2003, was widely adopted in mobile telecommunications. Thanks to the launch of numerous 3G mobile services, various mobile data communications become available, and ARPU of incumbent users is undergoing huge changes. Now, mobile phones are able to offer diversified services according to the lifestyles of users, ranging from voice communication and e-mail to mobile contents.
ROA Group predicts that the number of mobile users will reach 91.811 million by the end of
FY2005 (by March 2006). It has been assumed that Japanese mobile market is too saturated to add new subscribers. However, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced it would review allocation of bandwidth while allowing new entrants to advance into the mobile market. Thereby three new entrants revealed their plans to join the market. IP Mobile will start its service in October 2006, followed by eMobile in March 2007 and BB Mobile in April 2007.
This is the first time that Japan’s mobile market has new entrants in 12 years since 1994. The changes will reduce general service charges and bring about various brand new services. Besides, Willcom’s PHS business made a notable performance in 2005. The number of PHS users was falling after it reached its peak in April 2002. Its accumulated subscribers dropped to less than 5 million in 2004.
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