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The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology On Carriers' Network Development Strategies
Pioneer Consulting, Pages: 166
The evolution of 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile telecommunications technologies has been researched and written about ad infinitum. More recently, the topic of WiMAX, a particular 4G technology which promises to deliver 70 Mb/s data speeds over a 50 km radius, has been the focus of much attention and hype.
Many telecom analysts had come to the conclusion that 4G was just a distraction from making 3G work until the IEEE approved the 802.16e standard for mobile WiMAX in December 2005. Subsequently, the WiMAX Forum announced the first certified fixed WiMAX (802.16d or 802.16-2004) equipment in January 2006.
With this new found credibility, manufacturers and network operators are looking again at the benefits promised by 4G technologies and they are starting to invest serious time and effort in developing fixed and mobile products which should be commercialized within the next three years.
The report addresses the following key issues:
- What are the dynamics between 3G & 4G - competing or complimentary?
- What are the standards and regulatory issues in 4G?
- Which manufacturers are leading 4G development?
- How are carriers approaching the 4G issue at a strategic level?
- What would be the impact of 4G on networks, in terms of bandwidth requirements, under different penetration scenarios?
Thus, the overall purpose of this report is to give the reader some fresh perspectives on the issue of 4G by looking at this technology, not as an isolated phenomenon, but as part of an ongoing technological evolution and to provide some ground-breaking analysis in terms of average user bandwidth demand, as well as the usual measurements of subscribers, penetration rates, installations, and equipment sales.
The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology on Carriers' Network Development Strategies, concludes that WiMAX will have a significant role to play in the evolution of mobile networks. A survey of manufacturers and network operators indicates that they are making plans to incorporate 4G technology as a value-adding adjunct to existing mobile infrastructure and services.
'WiMAX has received a lot of negative publicity recently' says Julian Rawle, Managing Partner, 'but when you look beyond the hype and anti-hype, there is a viable business case for the fixed standard and maybe also for the mobile standard.'
Instead of characterizing the evolution of 3G and 4G mobile technologies as a battle to the death between species, the report highlights the potential for complementarity between the various technologies which reside under the 3G and 4G 'umbrellas'. Pioneer's Managing Partner, Howard Kidorf, commented 'In modeling scenarios for 4G development, we found that accelerated growth in demand for 4G stimulates interest in broadband wireless applications which also has a beneficial impact on demand for 3G.'
Nevertheless, Pioneer acknowledges that the future of 4G technology is by no means certain. More investment in R&D is required, the issue of global spectrum harmonization is unresolved, and equipment certification has only recently begun.
Pioneer's report segments the potential WiMAX market into 'fixed wireless backhaul' and 'mobile'. It provides forecasts to 2010 of subscriber numbers, penetration rates, and base station installations across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific for 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile technologies. The value of WiMAX equipment in the backhaul market is forecast and an innovative approach is used to forecast mobile demand in terms of bandwidth usage.
The conclusion from these forecasts is that WiMAX will establish market share over the next few years at a significant growth rate but will not become the dominant mobile technology any time soon.
This report should be of interest to:
- Fixed network operators
- Wireless network operators
- Wireless Internet Service Providers
- Equipment suppliers
- Component suppliers
- Venture Capital funds
Report Scope & Structure
Mobile telecom technologies covered in this report: GSM; GPRS; EDGE; HSCSD; UMTS / WCDMA; CDMA EV-DO; HSDPA; FLASH-OFDM; WiMAX; Wi-Fi; FLO
Geographic regions covered in this report are: North America; Europe; Asia Pacific
- Chapter 1 – Executive Summary provides a synopsis of the key data points, analysis, and conclusions from all sections of the report.
- Chapter 2 – Introduction describes the purpose and scope of the report and provides a top-level explanation of the methodologies used.
- Chapter 3 - Evolution of Mobile Technologies describes how mobile telecom technologies have evolved and then looks in detail at the attributes of 3G and 4G wireless technologies. This information is then used to provide a comparative analysis of both technical capabilities and cost.
- Chapter 4 - Market Dynamics looks at existing 3G network deployments, assesses 3G's current market share, and describes the challenges facing 3G in becoming the mainstream mobile technology of choice. This chapter then goes on to look at the status of 4G wireless technology development including applications in backhaul and access. Finally, the prospects for future deployment of 3G and 4G wireless technologies are considered.
- Chapter 5 - Major 4G Initiatives provides detail on the manufacturers and service providers which are leading the development of 4G technologies, highlighting key initiatives, global and regional strategic trends, and current developments.
- Chapter 6 - Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis provides Pioneer's regional forecasts for fixed WiMAX in the mobile backhaul market, and scenario analysis of potential bandwidth demand for mobile WiMAX.
- Chapter 7 – Conclusions summarises key conclusions drawn from analysis in all preceding chapters.
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