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Emerging Markets in Digital Power Electronics: Component, Converter and System-Level Opportunitites, Second Edition
Darnell Group, June 2006, Pages: 237
Topics Covered Include:
- digital power management: business trends & technology drivers
- digital benchmarking survey results
- worldwide and regional market forecasts
- competitive environment
The 237-page, Second Edition report on 'Emerging Markets in Digital Power Electronics: Component, Converter and System Level Opportunities' details how this market will surge to nearly $800 million in digital power integrated circuit sales within five years.
The expanded analysis in the Second Edition details the rapidly emerging opportunities for digital power electronics and highlights the early successes as well as the continuing challenges facing this important new arket. The migration of digital power management technologies into power conversion is being called “disruptive,” akin to the shift from linear to switch-mode power supply design. Dramatic shifts in technology such as this are often accompanied by changes in industry leadership. Today’s leading suppliers cannot ignore their sizable sales base of existing non-digital products. But emerging competitors are not limited in the same way and may be able to establish early leadership positions in the new technology. This new report quantifies the anticipated adoption of digital techniques by both power converter makers and OEM system designers.
A unique feature in this new edition is an entire chapter devoted to analysis of a “digital power competitor benchmarking survey” to identify which integrated circuit (IC) makers and which power converter makers are “ahead” in the development of a commercial presence in the emerging area of digital power. The report also includes comprehensive market forecasts for unit and dollar sales of digital ICs, as well as the first-ever five-year projections of digital IC pricing trends. The report details digital IC sales of $169 million in 2006, surging to early $800 million within 5 years. Finally, the report includes a detailed analysis of the market and technology factors that are driving this emerging market as well as profiles of 30 digital IC makers and 19 digital converter makers.
The fundamental purpose of this study of the emerging markets in digital power electronics is the identification of potential market opportunities, and the development of market penetration strategies for components and power converters in the following merchant market segments: Communications, Communications Power Systems, Data Communications, Computers, Industrial, Lighting, Medical, and Military/Aerospace. This study determines and defines the changing market opportunities for various power products as a result of trends in digital power management and control, projected between 2006 and 2011. The power products most likely to adopt digital control solutions in these applications include external ac-dc power adapters, embedded ac-dc power supplies, isolated dc-dc converters, non-isolated dc-dc converters (point-of-load and voltage regulators), telecom rectifiers, external dc-dc for communications power systems and lighting ballasts.
This study provides: estimates of how the worldwide and regional consumption of power converters will be affected by the adoption of digital control techniques in OEM systems; a determination of the perceived needs of each market niche and the factors critical to the successful penetration of them; an analysis of the perceived “leaders” in digital power management and control commercial product development, based on a benchmarking survey; and an overview of the major suppliers and developers in the current digital power management market.
In addition, this study provides detailed forecasts for: (1) the total available market for digital power management and control by power product; (2) the served available markets for digital loop control and converter management ICs by power product; and (3) digital IC “functional equivalent” forecasts by IC type. Finally, a detailed analysis of the semiconductor and converter companies perceived as offering the “best” digital control products – based on price, interoperability, design tools, hybrid analog/digital solution, and pure digital solution – is given.
Scope
This research report identifies market opportunities and develops market penetration strategies for power products in the following digital power management and control market segments: Communications, Communications Power Systems, Data Communications, Computers, Industrial, Lighting, Medical, and Military/Aerospace. In addition, the market is analyzed by Power Product, including External AC-DC (battery chargers and adapters), AC-DC Front Ends, Telecom Rectifiers, Telecom DC-DC Converters, Isolated DC-DC Converters (bricks and bus converters), and Non-isolated DC-DC Converters (point-of-load modules, VRMs, and VRDs). The report includes:
(1) Five-year worldwide and regional unit forecasts covering the period 2006 to 2011 for ac-dc power supplies, dc-dc converters, telecom rectifiers and lighting ballasts used in the applications expected to adopt digital power management and control solutions. Also included are conservative, moderate and aggressive scenarios for worldwide and regional unit adoption of digital loop control, power factor correction (PFC) loop control, converter management and system management. Finally, worldwide and regional dollar, unit and pricing forecasts are provided for the digital IC “functional equivalent” market by IC type.
(2) Identification of the key characteristics of each market segment, along with business development and technology trends.
(3) Perception of “leadership” among digital power management and control semiconductor makers and power conversion manufacturers, in terms of currently available commercial products. This analysis is based on a digital “benchmarking” survey that measured Price, Interoperability, Design Tools, Pure Digital Solutions and Hybrid Analog/Digital Solutions.
(4) An overview of the major suppliers and developers for digital power management and control products, including current partnerships and initiatives.
Methodology
Primary and secondary research were conducted of major system makers; the users/specifiers of power converters; producers of advanced-technology ICs serving the targeted markets; and the major makers of dc-dc converters and ac-dc front ends. The majority of data were obtained as a result of primary research and interviews. Background information was obtained through secondary research.
The data for the benchmarking survey were collected with a written questionnaire, with additional details obtained through the use of “open questionnaires” and telephone interviews. These two techniques are excellent complements if properly employed. The written questionnaire could include detailed lists of features not possible with the telephone interviews, while the open questionnaire format of the phone interviews often led to a great deal of information on a few key questions.
The advantages and disadvantages of different types of data collection methods were considered. The open questionnaire type was used for the following reasons: First, the field to be polled was restricted to qualified respondents knowledgeable in the markets and technologies covered. Second, the interviewers were also knowledgeable in the markets and technologies covered by the study and were thus capable of eliciting proper and meaningful responses and interpreting them within the structure of the survey. Third, while the written questionnaire provided valuable insight and a good overview of the field, the volume of detailed data required would have been difficult or impossible to obtain without either too long a written questionnaire or too much detailed follow-up.
The benchmarking survey included questions designed to determine who are the leaders in the Digital Power IC Market, the Digital Power Converter Market and the overall Digital Power Market. The survey results allowed for the determination of broad leaders within the market, as well as for certain criteria in the market, such as Price, Interoperability, Pure Digital Solution and so on.
Overall, several hundred representatives of systems, power converter and semiconductor companies were contacted to complete the survey. Potential participants were reached through a number of our mailing lists including those receiving the PowerPulse daily newsletter, attendees at the Digital Power Forum and several additional members of large system makers. These representatives were able to complete and fax back the survey or were invited to complete the survey in an online form. Respondents to this survey included representatives from the leading server, storage, data communications, communications, power supply, dc-dc converter, power semiconductor, and microprocessor and distributor companies.
Research Design
The design of the survey was structured in non-disguised form. Although the respondent was told exactly what information was desired and the purpose for which it would be used, no specific company was identified as the sponsor of the research. At the beginning of each telephone interview, the interviewer identified himself and concluded the identification with the following statement: “I’m calling for the Darnell Group, which publishes research reports on power electronics. We’re conducting some research on trends in power management, and if you can spare a few minutes, we would appreciate your confidential answers to a few questions.” This opening was employed to minimize fears that the interview was an attempt to elicit company-confidential data. By using this approach, it was possible to ask questions that if asked in isolation would more than likely have resulted in the respondent asking why the interviewer wanted to know that or for what purpose the data would be used.
In addition to the use of questionnaires, secondary sources of information were used as supplements. For example, annual reports and 10-Ks were requested for many of the companies involved in this market.
Correlation and Analysis
By employing multiple primary and secondary information sources and using various forms of primary information-gathering techniques, all results were cross-correlated and tested for reasonableness. In addition, the thorough and appropriate use of statistical analysis techniques insured that the conclusions drawn from this report accurately represented the surveyed markets. We believe that this combination of thorough and detailed data gathering, together with the use of sophisticated statistical analysis, has yielded a high degree of accuracy in the final report.
Our forecasts are constructed from the “top down.” Methodologically, top-level numbers are the most verifiable, consistent and least open to interpretation. Bottom-up “surveys” of key manufacturers have been used only for purposes of validation, not for developing specific forecasts. Using this methodology, product categories and end users can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. As a result, our forecasts are not based on the “self-report” of companies, which have low rate accuracy and are considered the least reliable statistically.
Several cross-correlations were used in this particular study to validate the data. For example, comparisons of “most important features” for price, interoperability and so on were compared for consistency. In other cases, the same information was requested in several questions using different formats to ensure consistency. Through this methodology, some surveys were eliminated.
These forecasts are a reflection of our analysis of end-market product and technology trends and the effect those trends will have on sales of power converters. They are sales forecasts, not regional production forecasts. No forecast is meaningful without an accompanying analysis, which provides detailed insights into the trends behind the numbers. We are confident that this detailed methodology has produced the most accurate forecast possible for the markets and technologies discussed in this analysis of the global digital power management market. As a consequence, the projections and observations made in this report provide a sound foundation for market and product planning efforts.
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