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Mobile Music: Ringtones, Full Track Downloads & Streaming, 2006-2011' (3rd Edition)
Juniper Research, Aug 2006, Pages: 195
Executive Summary
- Introduction
- Types of Mobile Music
- Market Drivers and Constraints
Ringtones and Ringbacks
Figure ES.1: Drivers and Constraints in the Mobile Ringtones and Ringback Tone Markets.
Ringtone and Ringback Market Drivers
Ringtone and Ringback Market Constraints
OTA Full Track Mobile Music
Figure ES.2: Drivers and Constraints in the OTA Full Track Mobile Music Market.
OTA Full Track Mobile Music Market Drivers
Figure ES.3: Global Cellular Subscriber Growth by Technology 2004-2011 (millions)
OTA Full Track Mobile Music Market Constraints
- The Market for Mobile Music
Market Breakdown by Product Type
Figure ES.4: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Product Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
Table ES.1: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Product Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
Figure ES.5: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Product Split ($m) 2006 and 2011.
Regional Outlook for the Mobile Music Market
Figure ES.6: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Regional Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
Table ES.2: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Regional Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
1. Technology
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 2G
1.2.1 Communication Technologies of 2G
i. GSM
ii. TDMA
iii. CDMA
iv. D-AMPS
1.2.2 Data Services
i. SMS
a. The Working of SMS
Figure 1.1: SMS Message Flow
b. Types of Messaging Services
- Mobile-originated SMS
- Mobile-terminated SMS
c. Premium-rate SMS (PRSMS)
ii. MMS
a. How Does MMS Work?
Figure 1.2: MMS Application Services
b. MMS Services
- MMS Entertainment and Information Services
Figure 1.3: Nokia’s 6280 3G Handset Supporting Video Streaming, and Sony Ericsson F500i and Samsung VGA Picture Phones
c. Personalisation
iii. The SMS/MMS Value Chain
Figure 1.4: SMS/MMS Value Chain
- 1.3 2.5 & 2.75G
1.3.1 GPRS
1.3.2 EDGE
1.3.3 CDMA2000
- 1.4 3G
Figure 1.5: 3G Access Technologies
Figure 1.6: Global 3G CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Subscribers (Millions)
Figure 1.7: Global 3G UMTS (WCDMA) Subscribers (Millions)
1.4.1 UMTS
Figure 1.8: Evolution of UMTS
i. WCDMA
1.4.2 1x EV-DO
1.4.3 1x EV-DV
1.4.4 TD-SCDMA
- 1.5 Beyond 3G
1.5.1 HSDPA
Figure 1.9: Application of HSDPA and its Enhanced Versions
Table 1.1: Global Operators using HSDPA Services
1.5.2 4G
i. WiMAX
Figure 1.10: WiMAX Evolution
Figure 1.11: Working of 802.16 Standard
- 1.6 Mobile Technologies Compared
Table 1.2: Comparative Chart of Mobile Technologies
Figure 1.12: Evolutionary Path of Communication Technologies
- 1.7 Other Enabling Technologies
1.7.1 Wireless Internet Technologies
i. WAP
Figure 1.13: UK WAP Page Impressions, September 2002 – May 2005 (Millions)
1.7.2 Future of WAP – Where is WAP Heading?
Figure 1.14: Future Path of WAP
i. The i-mode Alternative
Figure 1.15: Growth of i-mode Subscriber Base (Millions)
Figure 1.16: Growth of i-mode Menu Sites
1.7.3 Languages, Platforms and Operating Systems
i. Languages
a. Java
ii. Platforms
a. J2ME
b. BREW
iii. Operating Systems
a. Palm OS
b. Windows Mobile
Figure 1.17: Windows OS mobile screen
1.7.4 Other Relevant Technologies and Standards
i. MP3
Figure 1.18: MP3 Phones: Sony Ericsson K700i and Siemens SX1
ii. MP4
iii. MIDI
Figure 1.19: Sony Ericsson T610 Mobile Phone
iv. Bluetooth
v. Open APIs
a. The Khronos Group
Figure 1.20: Khronos Group Activities
2. Cellular Market Growth
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2 Growth of the Cellular Market
2.2.1 Global Cellular Subscriber Market
Figure 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth, By Region (m) 2004-2011
Table 2.1: Cellular Subscribers, By Region (m) 2004-2011
Figure 2.2: Cellular Subscriber Growth, By Region (m) 2004-2011
Figure 2.3: Population and Mobile Subscribers
Figure 2.4: Cellular Subscribers Penetration by Region 2004-2011 (%)
2.2.2 Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base
Table 2.2: Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base (m) 2005
2.2.3 Growth of 3G
Table 2.3: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
Figure 2.5: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
- 2.3 Regional Cellular Market Growth
2.3.1 North America
Figure 2.6: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts, by Technology (m) 2006-2011
Table 2.4: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
2.3.2 South America
Figure 2.7: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
Table 2.5: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
2.3.3 Europe
Figure 2.8: Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
Table 2.6: Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
2.3.4 Asia Pacific
Figure 2.9: Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
Table 2.7: Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
2.3.5 Rest of the World
Figure 2.10: Rest of the World Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
Table 2.8: Rest of the World Cellular Subscriber Forecasts by Technology (m) 2006-2011
- 2.4 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment
Figure 2.11: Revenue Growth Mechanisms
2.4.1 Consumer Behaviour towards Mobile Services
Figure 2.12: End-user Demands
i. Mobile Services Industry Life Cycle
Figure: 2.13: Life Cycle of Mobile Entertainment Services Industry
Figure 2.14: Killer Cocktail for Mobile Revenue Growth
ii. Mobile Entertainment Value Chain
Figure 2.15: Value Chain of Mobile Entertainment Industry
2.4.2 Mobile Entertainment Forum
Figure 2.16: MEF Strategic Industry Map for Mobile Entertainment
3. Mobile Music Market Development
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 Value Chain of Mobile Music Services
Figure 3.1: Value Chain for Mobile Music
- 3.3 Players in Mobile Music Services
3.3.1 Selected Operators
i. ‘3’ UK
ii. Airtel
iii. China Unicom
iv. KDDI
v. O2
vi. SK Telecom
Figure 3.2: SK Telecom MelOn Music Service
vii. Sprint Nextel
viii. Vodafone
3.3.2 Selected Music Companies
i. EMI Music
ii. Universal Music Group
3.3.3 Some Other Mobile Music Value Chain Players
i. End2End
ii. Entriq
Figure 3.3: Entriq MediaSphere Solution Overview
iii. Jamba/Jamster
iv. Immersion Corporation
Figure 3.4: VibeTonz System Components
v. LogicaCMG
vi. Loudeye
vii. Musiwave
viii. Napster
ix. Nokia
Figure 3.5: Nokia N91
x. Shazam
- 3.4 Forecast Definitions and Methodology
3.4.1 Forecast Definitions
3.4.2 Forecast Methodology
Figure: 3.6 Forecast Methodology.
- 3.5 The Total Market for Mobile Music
3.5.1 Product Breakdown
Figure 3.7: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Product Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
Table 3.1: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Product Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
Figure 3.8: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Product Split ($m) 2006 and 2011.
Figure 3.9: Reconciliation of Total Mobile Music Revenues from Edition 2 and Edition 3.
3.5.2 Regional Outlook for the Mobile Music Market
Figure 3.10: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Regional Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
Table 3.2: Total Revenues from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Full Track Music). Regional Forecast ($m) 2006-2011.
4. Ringtone and Ringback Tone Market
- 4.1 Evolution of Mobile Ringtones
Figure 4.1: Evolution of Mobile Tones
4.1.1 Monophonic and Polyphonic Ringtones
Figure 4.2: Nokia 8801
4.1.2 Realtones
Figure 4.3: Sony Ericsson K508i
Table 4.1: Details of Selected Operators Providing Realtone Services Worldwide
4.1.3 Video Ringtones
Figure 4.4: Sanyo MM-5600
4.1.4 Karaoke Ringtones
4.1.5 Silent Ringtones
- 4.2 Ringtone and Ringback Tone Drivers and Constraints
Figure 4.5: Drivers and Constraints in the Mobile Ringtones and Ringback Tone Markets.
4.2.1 Drivers
i. Personalisation
ii. Fun
iii. Product Innovation
iv. Growing Disposable Incomes
v. Increasing Mobile Penetration
Figure: 4.6 Cellular Subscribers Penetration by Region 2004-2011 (%)
vi. Competition
4.2.2 Constraints
i. User Confidence
ii. Pricing
iii. Billing
iv. Speed of Advanced Network Roll Out and Handset Availability
v. Market Maturity
vi. Operator Centricity
vii. Do It Yourself Ringtones
- 4.3 Ringtone Market Forecasts
4.3.1 Ringtone Market Characteristics
4.3.2 Popular Ringtones
Table 4.2: Top Ten UK Ringtones 2005
4.3.3 Ringtone Users
Table 4.3: Percent of Mobile Users Who Download Ringtones. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 4.7: Mobile Users Who Download Ringtones (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.4: Mobile Users Who Download Ringtones (m). Regional Forecasts 2006-2011.
4.3.3 Ringtone Traffic
Figure 4.8 Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.5: Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 4.9: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.6: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
4.3.4 Mobile Ringtone Revenues
Table 4.7: Average Price ($) Paid Per Ringtone. Regional Forecast 2006-2011
Figure 4.10: Total Revenues from Mobile Ringtones ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.8: Total Revenues from Mobile Ringtones ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
4.3.5 Mobile Ringtone ARPU
Figure 4.11: ARPU for Mobile Ringtones ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.9: ARPU for Mobile Ringtones ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
- 4.4 Ringback Tones
4.4.1 Ringback Tone Market Characteristics
Figure 4.12: Spread of Ringback Tones in Different Regional Markets
4.4.2 Ringback Tone Users
Table 4.10: Percent of Mobile Users Who Use Ringback Tones. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 4.13: Mobile Users Who Use Ringback Tones (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.11: Mobile Users Who Use Ringback Tones (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
4.4.3 Ringback Tone Traffic
Table 4.12: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 4.14: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.13: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
4.4.4 Ringback Tone Revenues
Table 4.14: Average Price ($) Paid Per Monthly Ringback Tone Subscription. Regional Forecast 2006-2011
Figure 4.15: Total Revenues from Ringback Tone Subscriptions ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.15: Total Revenues from Ringback Tone Subscriptions ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
4.4.5 Ringback Tone ARPU
Figure 4.16: ARPU for Ringback Tones ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 4.16: ARPU for Ringback Tones ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
5. Full Track OTA Music Market
- 5.1 Digital Music via Internet and Mobile
5.1.1 New Music Channels
5.1.2 Media Players
i. WinAmp
ii. Windows Media Player
iii. QuickTime
iv. RealPlayer
5.1.3 Online Music Stores
Table 5.1: Some Online Music Stores
v. iTunes Music Store
Figure 5.1: iTunes Music Store
Figure 5.2: Motorola ROKR
vi. Sony Connect
5.1.4 Evolution of the Mobile Device as a Music Resource
Figure 5.3: Selected Music/Multimedia Phones
5.1.5 Comparison of Internet Music and Mobile Music
Table 5.2: Comparative Analysis of Internet and Mobile Music
- 5.2 Delivery of Full Track Mobile Music
5.2.1 Streaming
i. Mobile Radio
ii. Vodafone Radio DJ
Figure 5.4: Sony Ericsson V630i and Nokia N70
5.2.2 Downloading
i. Six Stages for Effective Delivery for Master Recording
a. Authentication
b. Subscription
c. Payment
d. Transfer of Rights
e. Music Selection and Transfer
f. Verification and Activation of the Music
- 5.3 Mobile Full Track Music – Drivers and Constraints
Figure 5.5: Drivers and Constraints in the OTA Mobile Music Market.
5.3.1 Drivers
i. Proven demand for personal mobile music enjoyment
ii. Single communications and entertainment device
iii. New delivery channel
iv. Increasing 3G availability and penetration
Figure 5.6: Global Cellular Subscriber Growth by Technology 2004-2011 (millions)
v. Maturing Delivery Platforms
vi. Growing Disposable Incomes
5.3.2 Constraints
i. User Confidence
ii. Music Industry Acceptance
iii. Rights Management
iv. Internet Alternative
v. Price Levels
vi. Business models
vii. Operator Centricity
viii. Music Handset Availability
- 5.4 The Market for OTA Full Track Music Downloads
5.4.1 OTA Full Track Download Users
Table 5.3: Percent of 2.5 and 3G Mobile Users Who Download Full Track Music. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 5.7: Mobile Users Who Download Full Track Music (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.4: Mobile Users Who Download Full Track Music (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
5.4.2 OTA Full Track Download Traffic
Figure 5.8: Average Number of Full Track Music Downloads per User per Year. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.5: Average Number of Full Track Music Downloads per User per Year. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 5.9: Total Number of Full Track Music Downloads per Year (m).Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.6: Total Number of Full Track Music Downloads per Year (m).Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
5.4.3 OTA Full Track Music Download Revenues
Table 5.7: Average Price Paid Per Full Track Mobile OTA Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 5.10: Total Revenues from Full Track Mobile OTA Downloads ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.8: Total Revenues from Full Track Mobile OTA Downloads ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
5.4.4 Mobile Full Track OTA Download ARPU
Figure 5.11: ARPU for Full Track Mobile OTA Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.9: ARPU for Full Track Mobile OTA Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
- 5.5 The Market for Streamed Mobile Music Services
5.5.1 Streamed Mobile Music Service Users
Table 5.10: Percent of 2.5 and 3G Mobile Users Who Use Streamed Music Services. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 5.12: Mobile Users Who Use Streamed Music Services (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.11: Mobile Users Who Use Streamed Music Services (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
5.5.2 Streamed Music Traffic
Table 5.12: Average Number of Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year. Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 5.13: Total Number of Monthly Streamed Music Subscriptions per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.13: Total Number of Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
5.5.3 Streamed Mobile Music Service Revenues
Table 5.14: Average Price Paid Per Streamed Music Monthly Subscription ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Figure 5.14: Total Revenues from Streamed Mobile Music Services ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.15: Total Revenues from Streamed Mobile Music Services ($m). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
5.5.4 Streamed Mobile Music Service ARPU
Figure 5.15: ARPU for Streamed Mobile Music Services ($).Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
Table 5.16: ARPU for Streamed Mobile Music Services ($). Regional Forecast 2006-2011.
6. Regulation and Controls
- 6.1 Regulations for Mobile Music
6.1.1 Anti-piracy Regulations
i. Inernational Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI)
ii. Austrailasian Performing Rights Association (APRA)
iii. Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA)
6.1.2 Copyrights Acts
i. Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988
ii. US Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA)
6.1.3 Digital Rights Management
i. Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
a. OMA-DRM
- 6.2 Other Regulations – Mobile Content
6.2.1 Self Regulation – The Operators’ Approach
i. Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)
ii. Internet Content Rating Association (ICRA)
6.2.2 ICSTIS
6.2.3 OFCOM
6.2.4 CTIA
6.2.5 Pan-European Legislation
i. Directive 95/46/EC: Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy
ii. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)
iii. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)
6.2.6 Regulating SMS
i. Premium Rate SMS Regulation in the UK
ii. The E-money Directive
iii. The Problems with Regulation
a. The Objections to PRSMS Regulation in the UK
b. Age Verification Problems
c. Issues With Opt-in and Opt-out
- 6.3 Telecoms & Internet Regulations
6.3.1 Introduction
6.3.2 Who Are The Regulators?
6.3.3 Regulatory Environments
i. Pan European
ii. National Legislation
iii. Self Regulation
6.3.4 The UK Regulatory Environment
i. The Data Protection Act 1998 (DPA)
ii. The E-Commerce Directive (2000/31EC) and The Electronic Commerce Regulations 2002
7. Billing
- 7.1 Introduction
7.1.1 Changing Billing Requirements
7.1.2 Revenue Sharing with Content Providers
i. Operator-Owned Portals
ii. Third-party Portals
- 7.2 Requirements of Billing
7.2.1 Accuracy
7.2.2 Timeliness
7.2.3 Security
7.2.4 Privacy and Anonymity
- 7.3 Billing Types
7.3.1 SMS Models
i. Standard SMS Payment Model
ii. Premium SMS Payment Model
7.3.2 SMS MT Reverse Billing
7.3.3 Premium Rate SMS (PRSMS)
Table 7.1: The Three Principles of PRSMS
7.3.4 Premium Rate MMS (PRMMS)
7.3.5 Stored Value Accounts
7.3.6 Enabling Technologies
i. Subscriber Identity Module (SIM)
ii. Mobile Wallets
iii. Swipe Machines
7.3.7 Postpaid and Prepaid Billing
Figure 7.1: Billing Process for Mobile Entertainment Services
7.3.8 Billing and Charging Models
7.3.9 Pricing Models
- 7.4 Security
7.4.1 Public Key Infrastructure (PKI)
Figure 7.2: Main Components of Public Key Infrastructure
7.4.2 Digital Signatures
Table 7.2: How Digital Signatures Allow Security Services to be Applied to Billing Information
- 7.5 Billing Rules and Regulations
7.5.1 European Union Directives
7.5.2 UK Laws
7.5.3 Existing PRSMS Rules and Regulations
- 7.6 Mobile Bodies
7.6.1 The Mobile Payment Forum
Figure 7.3: Payment Life Cycle of M-payment
7.6.2 The Mobile Payment Services Association (MPSA)
7.6.3 NACHA
- 7.7 Billing for Mobile Music
Figure 7.4: Billing Relationship of Players in the Mobile Music Market
7.7.1 Billing Models
Table 7.3: Billing Models Used by Popular Online Music Stores
i. Subscription-based billing
a. Example of Subscription-based Billing: Napster
ii. A la carte/Pay-per-track Billing
a. Example of A la carte: iTunes
- 7.8 Payment and Transaction Processing Profiles
7.8.1 Bango
Figure 7.5: Co-existence of On and Off-Portal Models
7.8.2 mBlox
- Appendix 1: Global 3G Operators
- Appendix 2: List of Major Regulators Worldwide
- Appendix 3: List of National Recording Industry Associations
- Appendix 4: Web Addresses for Companies Included in Report
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