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Viewing report
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European Pay-TV Forecasts
International Marketing Reports Ltd, Aug 2001, Pages: 113
'David Brown's report provides an unparalleled and comprehensive source of data on the European Pay-TV industry, including every key statistic necessary for your business strategy. It will make planning faster, cheaper and more accurate. Already described by industry authorities as 'invaluable', 'highly informative' and 'well-researched', it will provide you with the tools needed to develop a European strategy and business plan for Pay-TV channels
The data, short and long-term forecasts, and analysis contained in the report are absolutely vital for anyone involved in European Pay-Television.
On a country-by-country basis, it provides information on the TV environment, distribution options, channels already broadcasting and their prospects, with forecasts up to 2008 for Pay-TV, including broadband and Video-on-Demand, and an assessment of winners and losers. '
Pay-television in Europe is an important and growing market. Already worth more than €20 billion in Western Europe, it will more than double this figure by 2008. If T-commerce revenues are included the figure will triple by 2008 to over €75 billion.
This expansion is being accompanied, inevitably, by increasing competition amongst content providers. Digital technology has brought down entry barriers and the competition has intensified between channels and content producers. The cake is getting larger, but it is being divided among more players.
At the same time, there is a trend towards consolidation and vertical integration on the distribution side that has led to fewer players and more power for the leading companies. This had meant a squeeze on channel providers, already under threat from increased competition. Carriage fees paid to channels are being reduced and alternative sources of revenue, such as interactivity, have proved illusory.
It has become very difficult for smaller, weaker channels to survive and many have failed and been forced to close. The advantage is with the larger groups with several channels than can benefit from economies of scale and well-known brands. They have the power to negotiate carriage fees, though at lower levels that previous contracts.
Even they cannot afford to be complacent, however, as competitors from other areas of the media and entertainment sector enter the market. MTV, for example, is facing fierce battles across Europe with local services, not least in the UK where publisher Emap has launched several new channels.
The first section of the report focuses on channels, with case studies on UK-based and pan-European channels and, in addition, a list of channels available in Western Europe.
GROWTH SECTORS
The report finds that the strongest growing sectors in European pay-TV will be broadband and Video-on-Demand (VOD). This will be in line with the growing importance of personalised television, leading to a greater emphasis on programming rather than channels (with all this implies for branding and the distribution of content). Personalised Video Recorders (PVR) will have a big impact as they will change viewing habits, undermine advertising as a source of revenue and force advertisers to seek other ways of getting their message across. VOD and PVRs, will become a major form of television programme and film consumption.
Pay-TV Cable1 will do well in comparison to DTH (at least in urban areas), partly because it starts from a lower base and DTH is nearing saturation in the main pay markets, but also because of its bandwidth and return path advantages. In the UK, however, cable will continue to find it difficult competing against a dominant BSkyB unless it is prepared to invest much more heavily in areas such as VOD and customer service.
T-commerce revenues will expand substantially as technology improves and viewers get more used to using the TV set as a way to buy goods and services. Thus, while pay-TV revenues are forecast to rise by over 2.3 times, T-commerce revenues will go up by more than 12 times. This reflects that fact that it is starting from a relatively low base, but it does mean that T-commerce will generate nearly 40% of the Average Revenue per Unit or subscriber (ARPU) in 2008, compared to around 10% in 2002.
Pay cable TV is defined as commercial cable television such as that in the UK and France rather than the utility cable distributing largely free-to-air channels that dominates Dutch and German networks.
GROWTH MARKETS
The UK will remain the largest pay-TV market in Europe, with France and Germany strong in terms of revenues. As far as penetration is concerned, the UK, France, Spain and Scandinavia will be the strongest pay-TV markets in Europe in 2008.
On the content side, the winners will tend to be those who can secure content that people want and/or which delivers audiences valuable to advertisers and are effective at getting it distributed via all platforms. In general the bigger players who benefit from economies of scale, vertical integration and strong brands will always be at an advantage.
REPORT OBJECTIVES & STRUCTURE
The report covers the macroeconomics – the overall assessment of the major European markets, including prospects and forecasts. It provides detailed information on the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. For each country the report analyses the TV environment, channels available via satellite, pay-TV distribution including broadband, the pay-TV channels the each territory and prospects and forecasts up to 2008. The forecasts cover numbers and penetration for paytelevision, cable, satellite, digital homes, broadband, VOD, and revenues from TV and from Tcommerce. The report concludes with an analysis of the European market as a whole as well as winners and losers in general terms.
The appendix of the report contains details of website addresses for further information on Conditional access, UK regulation and licensing, European regulation as well as a glossary.
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