PREDICTION With the 2012 deadline for Kyoto compliance rapidly approaching, the post-Protocol world is struggling to establish a multilateral agenda for tackling climate change.
SUMMARY The timeline for the next major global debate on climate change is uncertain. While piecemeal US climate change initiatives gather momentum, Americas participation in a multilateral agreement will require Chinese involvement. Europe will continue to lead the abatement agenda, but it cannot block a renaissance of nuclear power.
METHODOLOGY
ANALYSIS The Montreal Action Plan is open ended American industry is preparing for inevitable federal action on climate change Chinese involvement is central to active US participation Flue gas desulphurisation will become the norm for European coal plant A weak European emissions trading scheme will fail to deliver Existing dependence will force Europes anti-nuclear lobby on to the back foot Nuclear renaissance will centre in Moscow and Beijing
APPENDIX Further reading Ask the analyst
List of Figures Figure 1: China versus America: GDP and emissions growth Figure 2: FGD: how it works Figure 3: Original EU-15 and new member state generation mixes Figure 4: Forecast % breakdown of global nuclear output, 2003 to 2030
