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The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and their Implications for Human Healthcare
Decision Strategies International, Inc., June 2006, Pages: 132
This ground breaking, 132 page report links current information on emerging life sciences technologies with a scenario planning approach to identify growth opportunities and threats between now and 2020.
In the coming years, the convergence of genomics, proteomics, stem cell research, regenerative medicine, bioinformatics, nanotechnology and other life science technologies will pose significant opportunities and challenges in every sector of society. Two years ago, we, along with the William and Phyllis Mack Center for Technological Innovation, part of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, embarked on an ambitious program to lay out a range of reasonable futures for biosciences. Based on numerous workshops at the Mack Center and individual interviews with over 50 leading experts from academia, government and the private sector, the report represents a truly unique undertaking.
This report presents four scenarios that describe how emerging life science technologies might impact human healthcare between now and 2020. Major trends and uncertainties are identified, as well as key stakeholder groups expected to play a significant role in shaping the future. The Four Scenarios describe the commercialization potential of emerging bioscience technologies within a framework of potential future forces and events.
Decision-makers can use the meta-scenarios articulated in this report as a starting point for crafting their own strategies for proactive and reactive response to the dynamic and competitive biosciences environment. Our long-term goal is to provide decision makers in various industries with strategic insights needed to develop, commercialize and deploy emerging life science technologies.
Decision-makers who will benefit from this report:
- CEO's, General Managers, Executives
- Business Unit Leaders
- Strategists
- Marketing Executives
- Investors/Analysts
Industries and other stakeholders:
- Pharmaceuticals
- Biotechnology
- Healthcare Providers
- Advocacy Group
- Academic Medical & Biotechnology Programs
- Undergraduate & Graduate Business or Strategy Programs
Acquire this Report and begin to visualize the future of your industry...
How Scenarios Can Help Decision Makers Anticipate the Future
What Is Scenario Planning?
Scenario planning is a management tool for visualizing and describing several “possible futures” based on trends, uncertainties, stakeholder roles and cause-and- effect relationships (drivers). This approach is especially applicable to technology-driven industries that are evolving under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity.
Scenarios can be “meta-scenarios” that apply to an entire industry or set of technologies (such as biosciences), or “micro-scenarios” for a specific firm, industry or interest group. The scenario planning approach we developed enabled our research team to identify the most important uncertainties in biosciences, and use those to describe likely scenarios that can be monitored and planned for. For the biosciences, we identified “technological success” and “public support” as two critical variables/drivers, and these became the parameters for the 2x2 matrix used to create the four scenarios.
Ideally, decision makers can use these meta-scenarios as a starting-point to craft micro-scenarios and strategies for their organization, industry and environment. Our report identifies the trends, uncertainties and strategic factors that will influence commercialization of life science technologies and the evolution of health care in the coming decades.
Who Can Benefit From Reading This Report?
This report offers value to individuals and organizations in many fields, including:
- Managers in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, insurance, consumer products and other industries who are planning their business strategies,
- Policymakers trying to understand how to address the factors that will transform the future,
- Healthcare providers and practitioners, and
- Consumers and advocacy groups who want safe, effective, affordable medical cures and treatments.
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