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Vioxx Recall - Revenue Analysis and Impact on Cox-2 Inhibitor Markets
Frost & Sullivan, Nov 2004
Demonstrating the Safety of Cox-2 Inhibitors is Critical
The recent recall of Vioxx - after data from a clinical trial linked its continued use to cardiovascular adverse effects - has affected not only the Cox-2 inhibitor market, but also the pain management industry in the United States. A key challenge facing the market is the need to demonstrate the safety of Cox-2 inhibitors in long-term use, which in turn entails longer clinical trials and additional expenses. Gaining the approval of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is likely to become more difficult. The FDA may even require more data on the safety of similar drugs currently on the market. With so many issues surfacing, the future of the Cox-2 market, for the moment, looks uncertain.
This research analyzes the impact of recall of the drug, Vioxx, on the Cox-2 inhibitors market. This thorough analysis includes physicians’ perspectives that are expected to give pharmaceutical companies a new depth of information on measures to counter the effects of recall. The research discusses the impact of the recall in terms of revenue and patient forecasts and physicians’ past and future prescription trends.
Impact of Vioxx Recall Felt in Market Revenues
Physicians’ reluctance to prescribe Cox-2 inhibitors for pain therapy is increasing, says the analyst of this research service. A growing amount of data - suggesting that other Cox-2 inhibitors may also carry the risk of cardiovascular adverse effects - is likely to further hurt this market as physicians and patients look to over-the-counter (OTC) products or traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) to relieve the pain.
The impact of these changes is being seen in the market revenues. Before the recall of Vioxx, Cox-2 inhibitor revenues in the United States were expected to increase from $3,814 million in 2003 to $5,374 million in 2010 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0 percent. This projected increase was due to growing awareness and extensive marketing. Following the recall, however, the situation is expected to change significantly. In a pessimistic scenario, market revenue in 2010 is estimated to be $3,128 million. The research discusses three possible scenarios after the recall - pessimistic, conservative, and optimistic.
Insurance Reimbursement Poses a Strong Challenge
Insurance reimbursement is likely to be another stumbling block for the Cox-2 inhibitor market. Even before the Vioxx recall, insurance companies frequently questioned the efficacy and cost of Cox-2 inhibitors. Post recall, these companies have increased their concerns and some even opted to remove Cox-2 inhibitors from their preferred lists. The change in reimbursement coverage is likely to affect a wide cross section of patients, notably those suffering from arthritis, notes the analyst. Altered reimbursement coverage is likely to adversely impact the market by reducing the number of patients that are actually prescribed Cox-2 inhibitors.
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