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Pharmaceutical And Biotech Growth Strategies: Future Drivers And Opportunities
Business Insights, Jan 2004, Pages: 150

  Description  

  Table of Contents  
    
    
    
   
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Executive Summary 8
Introduction 8
Major pharma 10
Specialty pharma 11
Biotech 12
Chapter 1 Major pharma 16
Summary 16
Introduction: major pharma health check 17
Blockbuster growth model 19
Demand for blockbuster drugs 19
Investors’ emphasis on revenues 20
Optimizing returns on pharmaceutical R&D 20
Innovation is more sustainable than patent defense 22
Current blockbuster market 23
Reliance on blockbuster sales 25
Is blockbuster growth sustainable? 26
Growth through M&A 28
Drivers of pharmaceutical M&A 29
Focus on productivity improvements 30
The productivity crisis in R&D 32
The productivity crisis in sales 33
Is consolidation the answer? 35
Downsizing to improve efficiency – short-term gains 36
Revenues are directly proportional to investment in sales – no scale
economies 38
Pipeline productivity is directly proportional to R&D investment –
no scale economies 39
Implications for major pharma 41
Outlook for the major pharma sector 42
From blockbuster to ‘multi-buster’ – opportunities arising from
pharmacogenomics 43
Treatment by genotype 43
Improvements in diagnosis 44
Maximizing revenues in the post-genomics era 45
Focus on core competencies – benefits of networked growth 46
Short-term tactics – becoming the licensing partner of choice 48
Longer term strategy – moving from licensing to networking 52
Chapter 2 Specialty pharma 60
Summary 60
Introduction: specialty pharma health check 61
Growth-by-acquisition business model 62
Search strategies 63
Acquisitions 64
Single product acquisitions 65
Franchise acquisitions 66
Corporate acquisitions 67
Focused sales and marketing activities 68
Limitations of the growth-by-acquisition model 69
High cash burn 70
Over-reliance on individual product acquisitions 70
Lack of appropriate acquisition targets 71
Best acquisition targets too expensive 72
Outlook for specialty pharmas 73
Growth drivers to 2007 74
Continued top tier consolidation liberates products for specialty
pharmas 74
Large pharmas ignore therapeutic markets with lower revenue
potential 76
Revenue window of opportunity for specialty pharmas 79
Patent expiries fuel generic and drug delivery company growth 80
Biotechs move downstream 81
Japanese market opens up to specialty pharmas 82
Barriers to short-term growth 83
Growth drivers, 2007-12 85
Genomics and related technologies yield more drug targets 86
Pharmacogenomics micro-segments disease markets 87
Introduction of biogeneric drugs 88
Major pharmas divest entire therapeutic franchises 89
Barriers to longer term growth 90
Winning growth strategies 92
Improved search strategies and better structured agreements 94
Targeting the right therapy areas 95
Creating partnership networks 96
Acquire or co-promote? 100
Moving upstream to reduce reliance on acquisitions 101
Chapter 3 Biotech 106
Summary 106
Introduction: biotech health check 107
The evolving biotech market 110
Changing competitive landscape 111
Intra-biotech competition 112
Biotech-pharma competition 112
Changing balance of power between biotech and pharma 113
Desire for independence 113
Stratification of biotech sector 114
Growth strategies 115
Biotech growth influences 115
Cost containment 117
Income 117
Perception 118
Product potential 118
Adoption of growth strategies by biotechs at different stages of development 119
Integrated biotechs 119
Developing biotechs 125
Co-development companies 129
Platform technology companies 133
Outlook for the biotech sector 137
Integrated biotechs will consolidate to improve productivity 139
Developing and co-development companies will work together to avoid
restrictive agreements with pharmas 141
Development stage companies will partner rather than go-it-alone to market 143
Platform technology companies will expand their services to protect against
mimicry 145
Chapter 4 Appendix 148
Index 148

List of Figures
Figure 1.1: The forecast for pharmaceuticals: challenges to the root causes of profitability are
gaining strength 17
Figure 1.2: Segmentation of the blockbuster market by therapy area, 2002 24
Figure 1.3: Relative reliance on blockbuster sales, 2000-02 26
Figure 1.4: The relationship between volume and costs in the traditional pharmaceutical business
model 31
Figure 1.5: The productivity crisis in R&D 33
Figure 1.6: Factors affecting physician detailing productivity 34
Figure 1.7: Workforce productivity at the top 15 Western pharmas, 1998-2000 37
Figure 1.8: Pharmaceutical revenues are directly proportional to investment in sales 39
Figure 1.9: The commercial value of leading companies’ late-stage pipelines is directly
proportional to their R&D spend 40
Figure 1.10: Using market-driven genotype screening to increase the revenue potential of
pharmacogenomics-derived products 46
Figure 1.11: Networked pharmas respond rapidly to fluctuating resource needs by outsourcing to
cost-efficient specialist vendors 47
Figure 1.12: Networked pharma deals across the value chain 56
Figure 1.13: Networked pharma in 2015 58
Figure 2.14: Specialty pharma companies’ evolution towards fully integrated pharmaceutical
company status 62
Figure 2.15: Impact of acquisitions on specialty pharmas’ operating profit margins 68
Figure 2.16: Scenarios of future specialty pharma sector growth 73
Figure 2.17: A handful of mega-companies will dominate the industry by 2005 80
Figure 2.18: Future revenue opportunities for specialty pharmas 93
Figure 3.19: Biotech industry growth, 1992-2001 108
Figure 3.20: Comparison of therapeutic sources of revenue by 10 leading and 12 emerging biotech
players, 2007 113
Figure 3.21: Major influences on biotechnology growth strategies 116
Figure 3.22: Amgen’s alliance network, 2003 124
Figure 3.23: Biotech growth strategies 139

List of Tables
Table 2.1: Forest’s position in the global depression market, 2001-03 69
Table 3.2: Parameters of biotech industry growth, 1992-2001 108
Table 3.3: Relative importance of major influences on biotech growth strategies at different stages of company development 116




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