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Pharmaceutical And Biotech Growth Strategies: Future Drivers And Opportunities
Business Insights, Jan 2004, Pages: 150
Executive Summary 8 Introduction 8 Major pharma 10 Specialty pharma 11 Biotech 12 Chapter 1 Major pharma 16 Summary 16 Introduction: major pharma health check 17 Blockbuster growth model 19 Demand for blockbuster drugs 19 Investors’ emphasis on revenues 20 Optimizing returns on pharmaceutical R&D 20 Innovation is more sustainable than patent defense 22 Current blockbuster market 23 Reliance on blockbuster sales 25 Is blockbuster growth sustainable? 26 Growth through M&A 28 Drivers of pharmaceutical M&A 29 Focus on productivity improvements 30 The productivity crisis in R&D 32 The productivity crisis in sales 33 Is consolidation the answer? 35 Downsizing to improve efficiency – short-term gains 36 Revenues are directly proportional to investment in sales – no scale economies 38 Pipeline productivity is directly proportional to R&D investment – no scale economies 39 Implications for major pharma 41 Outlook for the major pharma sector 42 From blockbuster to ‘multi-buster’ – opportunities arising from pharmacogenomics 43 Treatment by genotype 43 Improvements in diagnosis 44 Maximizing revenues in the post-genomics era 45 Focus on core competencies – benefits of networked growth 46 Short-term tactics – becoming the licensing partner of choice 48 Longer term strategy – moving from licensing to networking 52 Chapter 2 Specialty pharma 60 Summary 60 Introduction: specialty pharma health check 61 Growth-by-acquisition business model 62 Search strategies 63 Acquisitions 64 Single product acquisitions 65 Franchise acquisitions 66 Corporate acquisitions 67 Focused sales and marketing activities 68 Limitations of the growth-by-acquisition model 69 High cash burn 70 Over-reliance on individual product acquisitions 70 Lack of appropriate acquisition targets 71 Best acquisition targets too expensive 72 Outlook for specialty pharmas 73 Growth drivers to 2007 74 Continued top tier consolidation liberates products for specialty pharmas 74 Large pharmas ignore therapeutic markets with lower revenue potential 76 Revenue window of opportunity for specialty pharmas 79 Patent expiries fuel generic and drug delivery company growth 80 Biotechs move downstream 81 Japanese market opens up to specialty pharmas 82 Barriers to short-term growth 83 Growth drivers, 2007-12 85 Genomics and related technologies yield more drug targets 86 Pharmacogenomics micro-segments disease markets 87 Introduction of biogeneric drugs 88 Major pharmas divest entire therapeutic franchises 89 Barriers to longer term growth 90 Winning growth strategies 92 Improved search strategies and better structured agreements 94 Targeting the right therapy areas 95 Creating partnership networks 96 Acquire or co-promote? 100 Moving upstream to reduce reliance on acquisitions 101 Chapter 3 Biotech 106 Summary 106 Introduction: biotech health check 107 The evolving biotech market 110 Changing competitive landscape 111 Intra-biotech competition 112 Biotech-pharma competition 112 Changing balance of power between biotech and pharma 113 Desire for independence 113 Stratification of biotech sector 114 Growth strategies 115 Biotech growth influences 115 Cost containment 117 Income 117 Perception 118 Product potential 118 Adoption of growth strategies by biotechs at different stages of development 119 Integrated biotechs 119 Developing biotechs 125 Co-development companies 129 Platform technology companies 133 Outlook for the biotech sector 137 Integrated biotechs will consolidate to improve productivity 139 Developing and co-development companies will work together to avoid restrictive agreements with pharmas 141 Development stage companies will partner rather than go-it-alone to market 143 Platform technology companies will expand their services to protect against mimicry 145 Chapter 4 Appendix 148 Index 148
List of Figures Figure 1.1: The forecast for pharmaceuticals: challenges to the root causes of profitability are gaining strength 17 Figure 1.2: Segmentation of the blockbuster market by therapy area, 2002 24 Figure 1.3: Relative reliance on blockbuster sales, 2000-02 26 Figure 1.4: The relationship between volume and costs in the traditional pharmaceutical business model 31 Figure 1.5: The productivity crisis in R&D 33 Figure 1.6: Factors affecting physician detailing productivity 34 Figure 1.7: Workforce productivity at the top 15 Western pharmas, 1998-2000 37 Figure 1.8: Pharmaceutical revenues are directly proportional to investment in sales 39 Figure 1.9: The commercial value of leading companies’ late-stage pipelines is directly proportional to their R&D spend 40 Figure 1.10: Using market-driven genotype screening to increase the revenue potential of pharmacogenomics-derived products 46 Figure 1.11: Networked pharmas respond rapidly to fluctuating resource needs by outsourcing to cost-efficient specialist vendors 47 Figure 1.12: Networked pharma deals across the value chain 56 Figure 1.13: Networked pharma in 2015 58 Figure 2.14: Specialty pharma companies’ evolution towards fully integrated pharmaceutical company status 62 Figure 2.15: Impact of acquisitions on specialty pharmas’ operating profit margins 68 Figure 2.16: Scenarios of future specialty pharma sector growth 73 Figure 2.17: A handful of mega-companies will dominate the industry by 2005 80 Figure 2.18: Future revenue opportunities for specialty pharmas 93 Figure 3.19: Biotech industry growth, 1992-2001 108 Figure 3.20: Comparison of therapeutic sources of revenue by 10 leading and 12 emerging biotech players, 2007 113 Figure 3.21: Major influences on biotechnology growth strategies 116 Figure 3.22: Amgen’s alliance network, 2003 124 Figure 3.23: Biotech growth strategies 139
List of Tables Table 2.1: Forest’s position in the global depression market, 2001-03 69 Table 3.2: Parameters of biotech industry growth, 1992-2001 108 Table 3.3: Relative importance of major influences on biotech growth strategies at different stages of company development 116
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