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Southscan 2004 Vol 19: A Bulletin of Southern African Affairs
Southscan, Jan 2004
Misjudged strike on privatisation may open way for changed political landscape
The main South African trade union federation this week took a calculated risk in calling a general strike for two days, and seems to have lost. Its failure to demonstrate widespread support among workers for its anti-privatisation strategy it has opened the way for an attack by President Thabo Mbeki on the movement and its leadership and may result in a substantially changed balance of forces within the Triple Alliance.
The strike took place after the publication of generally favourable economic indicators, which showed that the economy was on an upward path of 2.8-3.6 per cent growth, but which also indicated that mass unemployment would not be solved by current policies without a long term increase in the country's skills base - a decades long project.
The stay-away also demonstrated to 250 foreign delegates attending the International Institute of Communications conference in Johannesburg that resistance to the Telkom privatisation, the key issue, was not strong enough to divert the government.
Mbeki's attack
In his weekly 'Letter from the President' on Friday October 4, Mbeki made an unprecedented attack on Cosatu's action against privatisation this week. After a four-page summary of African National Congress successes in government, Mbeki wrote, 'Yet there are others who have decided that both the ANC and the masses of our people are wrong. These, who see themselves as our comrades, say that we must change policies...'.
He added, 'Twice, within a relatively short period of time, in August 2001 and October 2002, they have organised general political strikes. They did this to drag the workers and the working people into a struggle against both their organisation, the ANC, and the government they elected in 1999. Thus they presented these masses with the extraordinary and strange challenge to fight against and defeat themselves, apparently in their own interest!'
The letter marked seven days in which Mbeki has used both the ANC party machinery and government to begin a campaign against what he calls the 'ultra-left'. While there was ambiguity about whether this 'ultra-left' included Cosatu when he launched the opening volley at last week's ANC national policy conference, the letter this Friday made it quite clear that the leadership of his Alliance partner was indeed in his line of fire.
The strike was supported by the SA Communist Party, the Landless People's Movement, the Anti-Privatisation Forum, the Socialist Party of Azania and the Treatment Action Campaign. It came under attack from the ANC and its Women's League and Youth League, and by the Pan-Africanist Congress, as well as the Democratic Alliance and New National Party. In a cabinet press conference attended by five ministers and designed to undermine Cosatu, they came out, guns blazing, to denounce Cosatu's strike figures, to defend the state's policy, and to highlight what they called 'a crisis of leadership' in the federation.
To an extent Cosatu's problems are of its own making. After last August's strike (SouthScan v16/18), which failed to garner the levels of support needed to demonstrate to government that it was still the formidable force of anti-apartheid days, it went down the same road again.
According to Cosatu president Willie Madisha, the leadership was pressured into the action by an impatient membership. 'We wanted to postpone the strike but workers were very angry, accusing us of selling out. We had to give in because we could not ignore the wishes of our members,' said Madisha.
Anger comes from the high level of unemployment. According to official statistics released last week the country's unemployment rate for February this year was 29.4 percent, marginally down from 29.5 percent in September last year. In the expanded definition of unemployment - including the so-called discouraged job-seekers - the rate stood at 40.9 percent. This definition includes those economically active South Africans between the ages of 15 and 65 who are willing and able to work, but have not tried to find employment four weeks prior to being surveyed.
Cabinet insiders said the strike should have been cancelled after ruling party discussions last weekend. At this ANC policy conference delegates agreed to resuscitate the National Framework Agreement to negotiate privatisation at national, provincial and local government levels, to put social plans for retrenched workers at the heart of these negotiations and to follow a 'non-ideological' path in discussions.
In a memorandum dated September 25 and leaked to the SA Press Association, Cosatu general-secretary Zwelinzima Vavi said federation leaders were extremely concerned at the low turn-outs for earlier protests and said '... we fear... we are in for an unprecedented political humiliation that can have dire consequences for our status as an important role player in the transformation of our country'. On Wednesday night he commented that he believed his memorandum had helped rally the troops and that the strike had been successful.
Reclaiming territory
The ANC's message in the past week has been that it is more representative of the masses - 'the revolutionary movement' - than Cosatu or the broader 'ultra-left'. Mbeki's attack last week was about reclaiming ground that the federation had successfully begun to occupy.
In the past year, Cosatu has taken on an increasingly political mantle. It has taken up mass campaigns with the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC) for AIDS treatment and spearheads the campaign for a basic income grant.
The left in the Tripartite Alliance has acknowledged the growing influence and support of social movements like the TAC, the Landless People's Movement and the Soweto Electricity Crisis Committee.
At its congress in July, the SA Communist Party said it would 'walk on both sides of the street' - it would be in an alliance with the ANC, but also link up with the new social movements.
Faced with this gathering front Mbeki has listened to lieutenants in the ANC who have long warned of its nascent force and he has come down with an iron fist. It is an ominous sign for the Left, and a move against which some in the ANC are warning; Mbeki's speech to the ANC policy conference left many members uneasy as he suggested the 'ultra-left' inside the ANC could go their own way. 'We must pay attention to the principle - better fewer, but better', he warned.
His impatience may be matched within the alliance Left. At the recent SA Communist Party congress the mood was noticeably antagonistic to Mbeki and SACP members who were also his ministers. A number of them were ousted from the central committee, and talk of a split from the alliance was given more credence than before. Now the government is likely to press home its advantage and prepare the ground for its December conference where Leftists of all descriptions will come under attack.
In a new political landscape the spectrum may soon run from the Mbeki (tending away from austerity since the government will have more money to put into social projects - departments are now disbursing all their budgets and more), to the 'ultra leftists' in the new civil society organisations based on the unemployed and otherwise marginal population, with the SACP straddling the two uneasily and attempting to keep a balance in the leadership of an increasingly factional trade union federation. Currently on the right-wing is the white-collar National Education, Health and Allied Workers' Union (Nehawu), and on the left-wing the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa), the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), as well as Madisha and Vavi.
The SACP has called on its partners to consolidate a 'democratic, developmental state'. It was incumbent on all alliance partners to rise above 'factionalist labelling imputing conspiratorial motives'.
On a micro level a success for the strike would not only have demonstrated to government Cosatu's continuing relevance on the issue of privatisation and macro-economic policy, but would also have rallied the morale of its own members. There have been increasingly public battles between leaders of member unions and allegations that the government is infiltrating the movement in a bid to oust radicals (SouthScan v17/18). At the heart of the matter is the federation's inability to replace its dwindling industrial core with new members from the service and other white collar sectors. Here again it is following a well trodden path in industrialised countries like Britain, where it took over ten years of economic restructuring before union membership began to rise again on the back of the new service unions and in a less hostile political climate.
Mbeki, who is well attuned to the UK experience and is briefed by his friend Tony Blair, has deployed another familiar tactic to win support for the state's privatisation programme. Public Enterprises Minister Jeff Radebe (ousted in July from the SA Communist Party's central committee) announced plans to sweeten the pill for Telkom workers by launching a public share ownership scheme as part of the listing. He will also organise a massive public education campaign on the benefits of privatisation.
Support claims
Mbeki's attack came as strike support figures revealed that support in the parastatals (at the top of the list for privatisation) was low. Overall, most statistics suggested Cosatu's claim of 60 percent support was overblown. The SA Chamber of Business (an organisation likely to exaggerate rather than under-play strike damage) claimed absenteeism of 15%, while the independent labour consultancy Andrew Levy and Associates suggested absenteeism of between two percent and 15 percent.
Cosatu based its tally on counts in sectors where it well organised, like the mines and bigger manufacturing plants, as well as on reports from regional offices.
Cosatu has been unable to effectively organise in the services sector (the fastest growing), the informal sector (the largest job creator), or among vulnerable farm and domestic workers.
In addition, casualisation and outsourcing of workers is tearing at union support.In the fastest-growing sectors such as trade (42% of which is informal), business service industries and management, trade unionism has not been entrenched, so labour conditions are a lot more flexible.
Last year's independent Mesebetsi Labour Force Survey and the 2001 NMG-Levy annual report on labour relations and employee benefits has highlighted the move towards outsourcing, contract and other forms of 'atypical' work. In a survey covering 1994-1998, '68% of sample companies reported that they outsourced; 79% had outsourced more than once; with 65% contemplating further outsourcing,' said NMG-Levy.
Cosatu's growth path has been reversed, with the trade union federation posting a 10% decline in membership in 2001. This is the first time Cosatu has lost members since its formation in 1985. In 2000 it boasted 1.8m members - now there are just over 1.6m.
Increasingly, small and medium-sized businesses drive the economy.
As the strike ended Cosatu president Willie Madisha said workers in affiliated unions would decide whether or not to embark on further strikes if the government did not respond to an ultimatum on privatisation by the end of the month. This might include quarterly strikes, in line with a decision taken by the Cosatu congress in 2000 and confirmed in top level Cosatu meetings in 2001. This year the planned strikes had been postponed until this week because of the pending growth and development summit.
Telkom offering
Telkom represents the crown jewels in the government's parastatal kit. It depends on selling off a share for a substantial profit to kickstart foreign investment, and to give it further openings for black empowerment.
The initial public offering (IPO) should raise a substantial part of the R12 billion planned to come from privatisation. The state owns 65 percent of the company, which is variously valued at between R35 billion and R60 billion, including its 50 percent stake in cellphone operator Vodacom. US-based SBC Communications and Telekom Malaysia together own 30 percent, Ucingo has 3 percent and 2 percent will be allocated to staff. Market conditions and regulatory issues delayed the IPO, which was originally planned for last year. The telecomms slump lowered Telkom's value from about R100bn ($9.6bn) at the beginning of last year to approximately R35bn today, according to analysts.
SA economy:
FDI will not cure mass unemployment says report
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] One of the key conclusions of a new report on foreign direct investment into South Africa is that FDI, while an efficient means of technology transfer, it is not a solution to high unemployment. The report, by the Johannebsurg-based Edge (Economic Development, Growth & Equity) Institute, surveyed the 162 companies that entered South Africa after 1990. The bulk of the companies (57 percent) were from Europe with 22 percent from the United States and Canada and 15 percent from East Asia.
Main author London Business School professor Saul Estrin said the findings indicated that FDI, while an efficient means of technology transfer, was not a solution to high unemployment.
Among the report's conclusions are that -
· It was wrong to bemoan mergers and acquisitions and to assume greenfields investments would bring more job creation and actual capital flows.
· The vast majority of firms were happy with the return on their investment, which suggested South Africa was 'a very attractive investment destination'.
· Most of the firms invested in order to penetrate the South African or regional market - and not to escape high production costs at home.
· Foreign comapnies were more likely to appoint black people to key decision-making positions, but not into ownership.
Meanwhile a study by the German Chambers of Commerce released last month in Johannesburg revealed that top international investment companies have more confidence in South Africa's government and economic climate.'The devaluation of the Rand and crime still remained major concerns,' Matthias Boddenberg, the chief executive officer of the South Africa-Germany Chamber of Commerce, said.
However, Boddenberg said South Africa's attractiveness for foreign direct investment was poor. The UN's World Investment Report last month rated South Africa's performance at attracting foreign direct investment at 113 out of 140 countries.The report placed South Africa at 77 in terms of potential for attracting foreign direct investment.
Growth up, but not enough
Indicators presented by the Standard Bank this week show that South Africa's potential economic growth rate may be between 2.8 and 3.6 percent per year, still significantly below the around 6-7 per cent needed to make a dent on mass unemployment and promised by the Gear (Growth, Employment and Redistribution) plan .
Iraj Abedian, group economist of the Standard Bank, said the economy's output potential had been in an upward trend since 1992.On the unemplyment issue Abedian said skills augmentation had to be a top priority. 'Growth (alone) is not going to solve the problem of unemployment in South Africa.'
Abedian outlined what he called 'the next steps'. These included redressing historical imbalances; an integrated poverty alleviation strategy; and a strategy for dealing with unemployment, unemployability and skills mismatch.
Region:
SADC backs Mugabe but keeps him out of the limelight
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] Zimbabwe's neighbours have been unwilling to show any public dissension with President Robert Mugabe and the crisis in Zimbabwe was 'not on the agenda' of last week's Southern African Development Community summit in Luanda.
However, attempts to keep the rancour hidden failed during a public pillorying of Mugabe's policies by ministers of industry and trade, who said the political instability in Zimbabwe was giving negative perceptions of other countries in the region, leading to public and investor insecurity.
Then SADC, which was meeting from 27 September to 3 October, snubbed Mugabe by denying him the deputy chairmanship of the grouping, apparently concerned that his leadership would destroy the organisation's reputation. The Zimbabwean officials put a brave face on it by citing 'pressing commitments' at home, especially the controversial land reform process.
Zimbabwe has deputised in all meetings and this role was supposed to have been formalised by the summit. The post would have automatically led to Mugabe becoming its chairman a year later in Harare. Instead, the Tanzanian president, Benjamin Mkapa, was appointed to the post and next year's heads of state meeting will now be held in Tanzania.
Zimbabwe's Minister of Information, Jonathan Moyo, said Mugabe was anxious to concentrate on his agrarian reforms. 'Zimbabwe wants to engage the UNDP [UN Development Programme] and mobilise all resources to ensure the success of its agrarian reforms. That is a priority, which supersedes everything else. Being deputy chair means hosting the next summit and would therefore distract us from all that,' he said.
While avoiding publicly rebuking Mugabe, the new SADC chairman, the Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, his predecessor, the Malawian President Bakili Muluzi, and the body's executive secretary, Prega Ramsamy, all emphasised the need for regional stability during the summit's opening ceremony.
But in the final declaration the summit 'pledged continued support' for Mugabe, who had briefed the delegates on his land reform.
'We are convinced that the ongoing land reform in that country is aimed at the rational, fair and equitable distribution of land to be used for the benefit of the people of Zimbabwe,' Mkapa said at the summit's closing ceremony.
'We in SADC remain united in appreciating the need for, and supporting, land reform in Zimbabwe,' he added.
Meanwhile in South Africa the Industrial Development Corporation is reported to have been involved in negotiations with the World Bank for massive funding for a land reform programme in order to prevent 'a second Zimbabwe' from occurring in South Africa.
Zimbabwe:
EU quandary over visa bans
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] Despite hefty criticism from inside the European Union, the Zimbabwean trade minister, Samuel Mumbengewi, was given a Belgian visa to allow him to attend the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) ministerial session and the opening ceremony of the ACP-EU negotiations on new Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) on September 27 in Brussels.
But EU governments may postpone a meeting next month with Southern African Development Community foreign ministers because of concerns over Zimbabwe's participation and SADC's solidarity with Zimbabwe.
European and US bans on Zimbabwean officials may be a key reason for Zimbabwe's disbarment from the deputy leadership of SADC, decided at the grouping's summit this week. However, by appearing to polarise the EU and SADC the 'smart sanctions' are starting to have the opposite effect from their original purpose, say analysts.
The visa decision for the ACP meeting was criticised by British members of the European Parliament and by the Zimbabwean opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), who say it is a violation of the EU Council of Minister's travel ban against Zimbabwean top officials decided last February.
The Belgian authorities responded that the visa was delivered only for a very limited period of time, between 22 and 27 September and that it was only valid for Belgian territory and not for the rest of the EU.
In addition, they say that the measure was decided after the European Council of Ministers gave their approval on the grounds that the EU-ACP are not a bilateral but a multilateral meeting, involving a total 93 states from four continents.
However, after earlier well-publicised visits by Zimbabwean ministers to the UN in New York, and by President Robert Mugabe to the Food and Agricultural Organisation in Rome, the latest decision has made the bans look ineffective.
SADC meeting
SADC ministers are scheduled to meet their EU counterparts in Copenhagen on November 7 and 8, but a number of EU countries were unwilling to relax a travel ban on key members of the Zimbabwean government, including on Foreign Minister Stan Mudenge.
Other SADC members were unlikely to attend a meeting without Zimbabwe. The talks may therefore be postponed, held at a less senior level, or have their venue moved to Mozambique.
Region:
Optimistic conflict report by Mbeki despite ominous signs from Cote d'Ivoire
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] The issue of conflict resolution was again near the top of the Southern African Development Community summit's agenda, especially in light of the crisis in Cote d'Ivoire. SA President Thabo Mbeki , as chairman of the African Union, had been in discussions there with other West African states about the situation which has effectively split the country.
Mbeki told his parliament that there was clearly an atmosphere in favour of resolving Africa's wars. Long-standing problems in Sierra Leone, Angola and the Comoros Republic had been resolved, he noted.
But in Cote d'Ivoire it was again outside forces that have stabilised the situation - this time the French; earlier in Sierra Leone the British. There are signs that the new French government under a politically unconstrained president may reinvigorate the earlier policy of selective interventions in former African colonies, say analysts.
And just after the SADC summit the hosts, Angola, went into conclave with Nigeria to discuss reports that a US naval presence may be established on Sao Tome, to safeguard strategic oil resources in West Africa (SouthScan v17/19).
Angola, just out of its civil war, has the largest standing army in the region, and rather than contemplating demobilisation is still in the market for arms. It has been suggested that it could become active in peace operations for the UN, as in the eastern Congo, but it has made no offer. However, there is heightened awareness that it could begin taking a hand in regional imbroglios.
On the DR Congo Mbeki said he was convinced it would soon be possible to establish a transitional government that would pave the way for elections there. This week he was meeting representatives of opposition parties and civil society in the Congo to discuss the peace process. The delegates, some of whom had been at the Sun City talks earlier this year, arrived in South Africa on Wednesday at the invitation of Mbeki, who was acting in his capacity as chairman of the African Union.
Referring to Burundi, Mbeki expressed confidence the government and rebel groups would agree to a ceasefire.
Although there had been a setback in the Sudan, Pretoria had been in contact with the Sudanese government and would also be talking to the Sudanese People's Liberation Army. South Africa would contact the convenor of the peace talks, Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi, 'to see what contribution we can make', Mbeki said.
On Madagascar, Mbeki said Madagascar's President Marc Ravalomanana would visit South Africa soon. The AU is the only major international organisation that has not yet recognised the Ravalomanana government, a decision inherited from its former status as the Organisation of African Unity. At its inaugural summit, it barred Madagascar from taking its seat in the 53-nation body after ruling that Ravalomanana's election in December -disputed by outgoing head of state Didier Ratsiraka - was unconstitutional.
On the Western Sahara dispute, Mbeki said Pretoria was in contact with James Baker, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special envoy on the issue. Mbeki said he had also held talks with Morocco's King Mohammed VI about the issue. Morocco terminated its membership of the OAU and has not joined the AU in protest for its recognition of Polisario's Saharawi Democratic Republic.
The AU plans to create a peace and security council once the founding protocol has been ratified by a simple majority of members. It will also create an African standby force.
Cabinda talks?
Meanwhile Angola has said it is ready to open talks with armed separatist groups in Cabinda on limited autonomy. US and French oil companies produce about 700,000 barrels of crude per day from Cabinda, providing most of the government's revenue.
However, Joao Lourenco, MPLA secretary-general, again ruled out full independence for the province. He also ruled out mediation. Nzita Tiago, leader of FLEC-FAC, appealed earlier for mediated talks to end fighting in Cabinda. Another separatist group, FLEC Renovada, has not commented on possible talks.
International:
EU aid disbursements - slowest for the furthest
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] An internal report from EuropeAid, which manages two-thirds of the European Union's assistance to the rest of the world, has revealed huge discrepancies in the speed of disbursements to the various regions of the world.
In broad terms, the further away the beneficiaries, the slower the aid disbursements are in reaching them. South Africa gets one of the worst treatments.
The report shows that last year the period between the commitment date and the disbursement date was one year for projects financed by the EU in the Balkans, which is remarkably fast if one take into account the EU's usual lengthy disbursement procedures.
'Normal' food aid, which is delivered to compensate for food deficits outside of emergencies, follows suit with an average period of 2.06 years between commitment and payment dates, ahead of aid to the Former Soviet Union and Mongolia under the TACIS programmes, which take 3.55 years.
The gap between decisions and payments takes 4.1 years in the case of the European Development Fund programmes destined for the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states, including all Southern African Development Community members excepting South Africa. Then 4.52 years elapses in the case of Development and Human Rights programmes.
The EU's aid to South Africa is on average disbursed 4.61 years after the financing decision, while the time frame stretches to 6.79 years in the case of the Asian and Latin American countries.
The only exception to this unwritten but real rule of disbursement speed related to geographical proximity is the case of the Mediterranean countries, which, despite their proximity to the EU, must wait on average 6.34 years before receiving their funds.
No technical or political explanation for this trend is offered in the document from the EuropeaAid Co-Operation Office.
Congo:
Fears of turmoil mount in the east as foreign forces pack their bags
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] The Burundian army left last week the positions it has been holding in southern Kivu, in the Fizi and Baraka mountains near the Ubwari peninsula on Lake Tanganyika, say various sources in Bujumbura. It remains to be seen whether Burundi, which has never admitted having troops inside the DR Congo to prevent infiltration from the rebel Hutu 'Forces for the Defence of Democracy' will also pull out from the port of Kalemie, on Lake Tanganyika, but much further to the south, in northern Katanga.
Off the record, Burundian officials justified their military presence in the Congolese port from the second half of 1998 by the need to protect the traffic between the ports of Bujumbura and Mpulungu in Zambia.
So far, 15,312 foreign troops have withdrawn fromthe DRC, Maj-Gen Mountaga Diallo, force commander of the UN Mission in the DRC, said on Wednesday. The departed troops numbered 10,233 Rwandans, 2,287 Ugandans, 2,092 Zimbabweans and 700 Burundians, the UN agency IRIN reported.
The UN mission, MONUC, reported that there had been about 23,400 Rwandan troops in DRC. Zimbabwe had the second-largest contingent of forces in the DRC, with some 12,000, followed by Angola with about 8,000.
The departure of the Rwandan troops is generating a humanitarian and security crisis in many areas. The Bukavu-based NGO 'Heirs of Justice' on Wednesday urged the international community to send UN troops into the Shabunda area to protect civilians and the distribution of food and medicines to the inhabitants.
The departing Rwandan troops were followed by their allies from the Congolese Rally for Democracy (CRD) rebel group, the local authorities and a cohort of inhabitants who all seemed to fear a worse evil. The members of the last humanitarian organisation in the area had fled two days earlier. Immediately, the Mai-Mai 'resistants' led by 'General' Padiri stepped in. But they found an empty city. Nearly all 40,000 inhabitants had sought a refuge in the surrounding forests.
In Bukavu itself, five people died and several were injured at the Mugogo market some 15 km from the city centre on 28 September, the UN Mission in Congo's 'Radio Okapi' reported. According to CRD military sources, the deaths occurred during a clash between two rival factions of rebel soldiers who were collecting taxes from the traders. After the incident, civil society and religious leaders urged in a local radio broadcast the population to keep calm but expressed concern at the proliferation of armed groups. Meanwhile, the Kinshasa correspondent for the Belgian daily La Dernière Heure has reported that many people in the capital do not believe the Rwandan soldiers' withdrawal is genuine. All sources agree that soldiers in uniform are leaving Congolese territory, but many buses full of young Rwandans in plain clothes are at the same time crossing the Congolese border.
The paper also mentions rumours from Kisangani that the Rwandan military has not really left the area but has instead donned the uniforms of the CRD army. These allegations are supported by the European Christian NGO coalition 'Concertation chrétienne pour l'Afrique centrale', which confirms that in several Eastern Congo towns abandoned by the Rwandan army, militias have taken over amid fears of the local population. A national human rights NGO, the 'Association Africaine de Defense des Droits de l'Homme' (ASADHO), reported the redeployment of some 250 Rwandan troops in South Kivu.
On Tuesday the Christian coalition and the European Congo Network urged the states of the region and the EU member states to help provide security conditions for the local populations. The UN's reaction so far has only been verbal. It has urged the CRD rebels to make a truce with the other armed groups and to try to come to an accomodation before a transition agreement is adopted by the different Congolese parties, which were gathering for a new session of the inter-Congolese dialogue in Pretoria this week.
Despite a plea by the UN secretary general Kofi Annan for a doubling of the force, MONUC's total deployment of uniformed members, including military observers and troops to protect them, numbers only 4,302.
MONUC's head, Amos Namanga Ngongi, said that the Rwandan withdrawal could be completed before the end of next week, ahead of the agreed deadline. Zimbabwe announced that the final withdrawal of its troops would begin on Friday, from Lubumbashi.
But the numerous political and economic interconnections between the Congo's eastern neighbours make it unlikely that stability will soon follow. Already there are reports of groups based in Uganda fomenting trouble for the Kenyan government, while Rwanda believes that Interahamwe forces have moved onto Ugandan territory, from which they can organise attacks on it. Kenya has been critical of Uganda's unilateral disarmament programme near its border and has sought instead a regional approach.
The governments of Uganda and the Congo have set up a joint commission to establish peace in the Ituri region of north-eastern Congo and along the countries' shared border. Both countries fear that a power vacuum could lead to further chaos between the local Hema and Lendu ethnic groups, which regularly clash, as well as rebel groups such as the Uganda-backed Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie-Kisangani-Mouvement pour la liberation - RCD-K-ML (SouthScan v17/18).
Rwanda also has continuing economic interests in the eastern Congo beyond its primary security interest. According to an Economist Intelligence Unit report last month nearly all of Rwanda's exports at a border crossing between Cyangugu in south-western Rwanda and Bukavu in the DR Congo went unrecorded, and are worth an estimated $10 million per year. Rwanda's total recorded trade exports are around $85m. There may be similar high levels of unrecorded trade across its other borders.
Concerns about instability as foreign forces leave have also been raised by Zambia. At the end of a two-day meeting the Zambia/Namibia Joint Permanent Commission on Defence and Security on 27 September expressed 'serious concern [over] the continued instability prevailing in the eastern part of the DRC'. Clashes occurred last month with Mai-Mai militia in the Pweto area of eastern DRC that led to a fresh trickle of refugees into Zambia. Around 100 Congolese cross into Zambia each month fleeing sporadic skirmishes. There have also been reports of gunmen from the Congo harassing Zambian villagers (SouthScan v17/19). Zambia has around 55,000 refugees from the Congo.
Zambia:
Sexual exploitation in refugee camps
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] In nearly in all the refugee camps in Zambia allegations of sexual exploitation are on the increase and are being reported to UN agencies. However, little action appears to be taken.
SouthScan visited Mayukwayukwa and Maheba refugee camps this week and heard allegations that women and children are not being given enough food to sustain them for two weeks by the camp workers, as per UN High Commissioner for Refugees arrangements, unless they have sex with them. In some cases women are promised marriage on condition that they do not reveal the affairs.
Zambian Red Cross Society officials in the camps say the situation is getting out of hand and that no offender has yet been punished. The issue is of even greater urgency when it is set against the underlying crises of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa.
In West Africa in February this year a report on sexual violence and exploitation of refugees identified staff from international and local non-governmental organisations as well as UN agencies as frequently using their positions to sexually exploit women and children. The report further states that 'exploiters appear to be able to pay for sex when and with whom they want, and to do so with impunity, since the very people they exploit are not able to complain about their situation for fear of their source of basic survival being removed'.
In Zambia abusers have been reported to the UNHCR and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF). In Maheba refugee camp alone, at least 25 cases of abuse of women and children by humanitarian workers have been reported in just two weeks; in Mayukwayukwa the situation seems to be worse.
UNICEF representative in Zambia Stella Goings has received reports of child abuse. 'Our job is to understand vulnerability and making certain that we are working to protect, not exploit people in need. It also means we have to educate the truck drivers who deliver the food, the police and the registry to be people of integrity,' she said.
In a bid to stop child sexual abuse, UNICEF, Save the Children and World Food Programme (WFP), have developed training courses, and in March this year, the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) established a Task Force to guard against abuse in humanitarian crises. It has not, however, made an impact in the Zambian refugee camps.
The UNHCR chief for Central Africa, Ahmed Gubartalla, seems to agree that the task force is somehow ineffective. He noted the only way to protect the refugees from any form of exploitation is to repatriate them to their respective countries and has set next year as deadline for the exodus, despite protests from several refugees in Mayukwayukwa and Maheba camps that unless the situation improves in their countries they will not go back.
· Gubartalla said the 4,000 Angolan refugees who recently returned to their homes spontaneously, should have sought assistance and clearance from his organisation before leaving. 'We bear no risk as UNHCR, if those refugees are attacked or anything happens on the way- that would be their own fault as they were not cleared by anyone,' he said.
International:
SA sharply rejects UK's Iraq dossier claims
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] There was rare tension in diplomatic relations between South Africa and Britain last week when SA vigorously refuted a key element of Prime Minister Tony Blair's case against Iraq, as presented in an intelligence dossier to the British parliament.
Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Aziz Pahad discounted any possibility of South Africa, as the only African country with enrichment capacity, having supplied uranium to Saddam Hussein's regime. Pahad also noted that the International Atomic Energy Agency had already rejected claims that Iraq could have obtained uranium from Africa to make nuclear weapons, as Blair had asserted. The agency had said there was no substance to the report, and Pahad chacacterised the British allegations as 'vague'.
The unusually sharp tone was followed by another blast at the US by former president Nelson Mandela, who this week said in Jakarta, Indonesia, that 'No country, however powerful it may be, is entitled to act outside the United Nations'. He added that countries were only challenging the mandate of the UN now because Secretary-General Kofi Annan is black.
Mandela and the South African government have good relations with Iraq. Mandela has called the US a threat to world peace and has said its belligerent policy toward Iraq is an effort to appease the oil and arms industry.Before meeting with Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz on the sidelines of the World Summit in Johannesburg last month, Mandela told reporters he was 'appalled' by US threats against Baghdad. Aziz is a frequent diplomatic visitor, and during last month's Summit he used the opportunity for a medical visit to a top private Johannesburg clinic.
With the focus for a potential nuclear material supplier turned off SA, next in line has been the DR Congo where a small nuclear power station, built in the early '70s, has been mothballed (SouthScan v16/06). Erosion is threatening the nuclear waste storage at the Kinshasa Regional Centre for Nuclear Studies (Cren-K) at Kinshasa university. The Voice of America has now reported that the US has offered to buy the uranium fuel.
But even here the view of experts is that Iraq has not been supplied with nuclear material. A Belgian specialist of the DRC's mining sector called the contention in Blair's dossier 'nonsense'. Professor Hugues Leclercq from the Catholic University of Louvain, says that the DRC does not currently have any U-235 uranium, which in any case would have to be made into U-238 and plutonium-239 to be used for the fabrication of a nuclear device.
The Congo's sole uranium mine is at Shinkolobwe in Katanga, whose ore was used to make the atomic bombs which were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945; it is completely flooded and it has not produced anything since 1960, Leclercq noted in an article in La Libre Belgique on September 27.
In an interview with SouthScan, Leclercq said he had heard of attempts by Congolese traffickers to market some ore and uranium fuel stolen from the Kinshasa University research centre in 1970, but in any case the quantities were minimal and inappropriate for military use. Moreover Leclercq, along with the US former UN weapons inspector Scott Rittner, doubts that Iraq has the installations to produce plutonium in sufficient quantities to become a nuclear power in the near future.
Since Gabon stopped producing uranium in the late 1990s there are only three African producers. One is Namibia, whose output from the Rossing mine is operated by the British-based Rio Tinto Zinc corporation, and which is likely to be under close surveillance by British intelligence. Another producer is Niger, whose production is operated by a French state-owned company. The only country able to develop a nuclear warfare capacity is South Africa. Africa's uranium production last year was Niger - 3,096 tonnes; Namibia - 2,239 tonnes; South Africa - 898 tonnes.
The IAEA says it has been given guarantees about the use of nuclear products in South Africa - which in addition has ratified the non-proliferation treaty, as well as a stricter addendum last week. With SA increasingly pivotal to US strategic plans for Africa US President George Bush is now planning a visit there early next year, either to garner support for his Iraq war plans, or to deal with the aftermath. Assistant Secretary of State Walter Kansteiner visits South Africa later this month.
Zimbabwe:
MDC faces major dilemma after defeat
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] Serious questions now face the opposition Movement for Democratic Change after its resounding defeat in the local government elections. One response inside the MDC has been a call from the party's youth wing for a confrontation with the government of President Robert Mugabe, but analysts say this would have little chance of success.
Intimidation and apathy marred Zimbabwe's rural district council elections last weekend, with MPs and party activists arrested and assaulted. At the same time the opposition's attempts to mount legal challenges to the government actions have been thwarted in series of High Court judgements.
The local government elections were held in 1,397 rural districts and 27 urban wards. The MDC only fielded 646 candidates, citing intimidation and bureaucratic hurdles which resulted in 702 ruling Zanu-PF candidates being elected unopposed. Zanu-PF swept up 1,300 wards to the MDC's 50, while the rest went to independents.
The MDC had been denied permission to hold a single campaign rally following a ban because of 'the likely threat to public peace' posed by the rallies, with the police citing a section of the recently gazetted Public Order and Security Act.
Brian Raftopoulos of the University of Zimbabwe's Institute of Development Studies, said that the government's tactics of preventing peaceful protests may have brought violent protest under consideration by elements within the party, but he warned that the ground was 'exceedingly unpropitious'.
MDC's national youth leader, Nelson Chamisa told SouthScan that the youth were running out of patience with its leadership for trying to pursue a 'fruitless avenue' of change through dialogue.
'Its obvious that Mugabe will never give up power voluntarily so we have to consider other avenues, even if it means fighting,' he said.
Tsvangirai himself recently hinted that his party was working on a plan to remove Mugabe from power but declined to elaborate, saying the information was not for public consumption yet.
'More than 80 percent of Zimbabweans want change. But we have to choose between violent and non-violent paths, the challenge being a young generation who believe it is time to think about armed struggle. We must be conscious that beyond this chaos, we'll have to pick up the pieces,' he said in a recent interview.
Tsvangirai last week reshuffled his party's national executive and shadow ministries in a move he said was aimed at strengthening the organisation to prepare it to take charge as Zimbabwe's next government. Several of his colleagues in the trade unions are now in the new national executive.
Analysts said Mugabe could now be pushing Tsvangirai back to the negotiating table to form a government of national unity, albeit with a significantly small role. The concept has the support of Nigeria and South Africa, who last week thwarted attempts by Australian Prime Minister John Howard to suspend Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth.
Both Zanu-PF and MDC have declared that the inter-party talks, which started in April, were 'dead and buried' but South Africa has publicly attacked Tsvangirai for his opposition, saying the majority of Zimbabweans should make the decision.
Some political commentators believe Nigeria and South Africa could have taken a foreign policy gamble in blocking Australia's attempt to suspend Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth with the hope that in six months, when the Commonwealth is next due to consider Zimbabwe, Mugabe would have completed his land resettlement programme and, with good rains, the country would have enough food and be on its way to economic recovery .
This would pull the rug from under the MDC. Mugabe would then retire peacefully and triumphantly as a national hero.
Meanwhile, Mugabe has approved an increase in pensions for himself and his ailing deputies under a plan proposed by the Minister of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare, July Moyo.
Under the plan, the pension of a former president will now be 100 percent of his pensionable income. Former presidents who served for at least one full term would be paid an annual pension equal to their annual salary when they vacate office. A former president and vice-president will now be able to commute a third of his or her pension at the time of retirement.
Mugabe is 78 while his deputies are well in their 80s.
Meanwhile, to add to the MDC's woes, it is being blocked in variouis court actions by a bench now stacked with judges favourable to the ruling party.
MDC leaders, Morgan Tsvangirai, Welshman Ncube and Renson Gasela were this week indicted to appear in court on 11 November on treason charges that they plotted to assassinate Mugabe. This is despite the fact that the state's star witness, Ari Ben Menashe, has refused to testify in the trial (SouthScan v117/04;06;09).
Another MP, Roy Bennet was this week kept in police custody until Wednesday for refusing to vacate his farm while Paul Madzore, the MDC MP for Glen View was this week cleared of charges of attempted murder.
Learnmore Jongwe, who is facing charges of murdering his wife, has been denied bail three times while several MDC members in Bulawayo remain jailed for alleged murders of Zanu-PF members Cain Nkala, who was declared a national hero by Mugabe, and Limukani Lupahla - despite being cleared of any wrongdoing by the Supreme Court. Another MDC MP, Fletcher Dulini-Ncube, is also being charged for the same offence.
And the Supreme Court this week reserved judgement on Tsvangirai's bid to gain access to the (publicly available) voters' rolls for the presidential elections held in March.
Zambia:
More scientists sent to uncover secrets of GM food
[SouthScan v17/20 4 Oct 02] The Southern African Development Community sought at its summit this week to deal with the sensitivities of countries in the region believing genetically modified food aid could be poisonous by sending a team of scientists to the US. They will arrive hard on the heels of Zambian scientists on a similar mission to a country where use of GM foods is widespread.
Initially the states rejecting the GM grain made an economic case against contamination of their own seed stocks, especially since some of them export food products to the European Union, which has strict controls on GM foods.
Zimbabwe subsequently softened its stance, but Zambia is now stressing the health aspect - despite the World Food Programme noting that Zambians have been eating GM maize for seven years now without untoward effects - while President Levy Mwanawasa is denying there is a starvation threat.
At its summit this week the SADC Council of Ministers requested the World Health Organisation to provide further clarification on GM foods and approved setting up an advisory committee to develop guidelines on the foods. It also sanctioned the dispatch of 20 SADC officials and scientists to the US on a fact-finding expedition.
'For those member states that have accepted this grain, they have to launch awareness campaigns to ensure that the GMO maize is not planted and that it be milled into flour before distribution to beneficiaries,' SADC said in a statement.
Of the six countries affected, only Zambia has formally refused GM foods, while Zimbabwe has accepted them only reluctantly and with strict controls.
The Zambian action has coincided with hefty denials by the government there that famine is a problem despite independent reports saying that the hunger situation is worsening.
The US through the WFP shipped in thousands of tons of GM maize which have been distributed countrywide, but the Zambian government then rejected the offer following warnings from local scientists. Zambia has no regulations for biotechnology foods.
The US government then invited the Zambian scientists in, but local analysts say the hunger situation is now dictating that the government must accept the maize, with or without the report of the scientists. The media is recording deaths from hunger every day but government - particularly Mwanawasa and his agriculture and co-operatives minister, Mundia Sikatana - persistently deny that there is starvation and say there is enough food to feed the people until March next year.
Mwanawasa believes the situation in the country is being negatively reported by foreign media showing 'fake electronic footage' of malnourished children, who he claims are not Zambians. 'The thing is that the stance taken by Zambia to reject GM maize has annoyed some big powers that had economic interest in the matter', he says.
But opposition MPs from various rural constituencies and provinces have said that deaths are recorded nearly every day. After Moomba MP Vitalis Mooya said that in his constituency in the southern part of the country three old women died of hunger he was threatened with arrest for what Mwanawasa called 'alarming the nation'.
Recently, hungry villagers looted about 500 bags of GM maize at Chief Moomba's palace in Monze district, which is in Mooya's constituency. Police warned they would arrest the looters but the MP intervened.
Opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) MPs are calling on Mwanawasa and his government to answer their question - 'Die today of hunger or 30 years later' after eating the GM maize, and they point out that Mwanawasa, too, is 'alarmist' since he declared the hunger situation in the country a national disaster.
They also note that he has failed to explain why people continue to loot the GM maize when the country, according to him, has enough food.
Meanwhile SADC has called for the cancellation of debts owed by six countries where more than 14 million people are threatened by famine. (SouthScan v17/16).
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