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The China Market for GM (Genetically Modified) Crops Market
GCiS, Oct 2006, Pages: 192
Ch.1 Introduction & Methodology 1.1
METHODOLOGY USED IN THIS STUDY 1.1
SAMPLING 1.2
Figure 1.1: Total Sampling (No. Interviews) 1.2
Figure 1.2: Supplier & Distributor Segmentation by Type 1.2
RESEARCH PROCESS 1.3
Figure 1.3: GCiS Research Process 1.5
SPECIFIC ISSUES FOR THIS PROJECT 1.6
DEFINITIONS 1.6
KEY ENGLISH-CHINESE TRANSLATIONS 1.8
Ch. 2 Total Analysis 2.1
I. Total Market 2.1
MARKET IN SUM 2.1
NOTABLE FINDINGS 2.4
SELECT TOTAL MARKET FIGURES 2.5
Figure 2.1: Total Cultivated Area of GM Crops (2000-2004) 2.5
Figure 2.2: Total Cultivated Area of GM Crops (2000-2004) 2.5
Figure 2.3: Total Output of GM Crops (Cotton) 2.6
Figure 2.4: Total Output of GM Crops (Cotton) 2.6
Figure 2.5: Summary of GM Crops Being Researched in China 2.7
Figure 2.6: GM Crops Being Researched in China 2.7
Figure 2.7: GM Crops Approved for Commercial Production 2.8
Figure 2.8: Total Sown Area of Farm Crops in China 2.8
OPPORTUNITIES 2.9
Figure 2.9: Opportunities for Sale of Select GM Crops 2.9
II. Market for GM Cotton Seeds 2.13
KEY POINTS 2.13
MARKET SIZE 2.14
Figure 2.10: Market Size Calculation 2.14
MARKET GROWTH 2.15
Figure 2.11: Total Cultivated Area of GM Crops (2002-2004) 2.15
Figure 2.12: Cultivated Area of Cotton 2.16
Figure 2.13: Cultivated Area of GM Cotton 2.16
Figure 2.14: Growth in Cultivated Area of GM Cotton – Chart 2.16
MARKET FORECASTS 2.17
Figure 2.15: Market Forecasts (2005-2009) 2.17
Figure 2.16: Market Forecasts (2005-2009) – Chart 2.17
MARKET SHARES 2.18
Figure 2.17: GM Cotton Seeds Market Shares 2.18
Figure 2.18: GM Cotton Market Shares 2.19
MARKET DEVELOPMENT 2.20
Figure 2.19: Total Cultivated Land of Traditional and GM Cotton 2.20
Figure 2.20: Costs Comparison between GM and Non-GM Cotton Crops in 2004 2.21
Figure 2.21: Savings with GM Cotton Crops per Family and Laborer in 2004 2.22
Figure 2.22: Avg Land Area in China per Family, Laborer by Main Agri. Provinces 2.23
Figure 2.23: Average Land Area in China per Family, Laborer – Chart 2.23
Figure 2.24: Total Cotton Cultivated Land in China (1995-2004) 2.24
Figure 2.25: GM Cotton Cultivated Land in China (2001-2004) 2.24
Figure 2.26: China GM Cotton Cultivated Land Forecasts (2005-2010) 2.25
Figure 2.27: China GM Cotton Cultivated Land Forecasts (2005-2010) – Chart 2.26
III. Market for Other GM Crops 2.27
GM RICE – SUMMARY 2.27
Figure 2.28: Total Sown Area of Grain Crops in China (000 Hectares) 2.28
Figure 2.29: Total Sown Area of Rice in China 2.28
MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GM RICE 2.30
Figure 2.30: Equal Costs of GM and Non-GM Rice Crops Price Estimation 2.30
Figure 2.31: Rice Yield Statistics and Forecasts (1996-2010) 2.31
Figure 2.32: Annual Profit from Rice Yield per Family and Laborer at Equal GM
and Non-GM Crops Costs 2.32
Figure 2.33: Lower Costs (20%) of GM Rice Crops Price Estimation 2.33
Figure 2.34: Savings with GM Rice Crops per Family, Laborer at 20% Lower Costs 2.33
Figure 2.35: Total Rice Cultivated Land in China (1996-2004) 2.34
Figure 2.36: Estimated GM Rice Cultivated Land in China (2006-2015) 2.35
Figure 2.37: China GM Rice Cultivated Land Forecasts (2005-2010) – Chart 2.35
GM WHEAT – SUMMARY 2.36
Figure 2.38: Total Sown Area of Grain Crops in China (000 Hectares) 2.37
Figure 2.39: Sown Area of Wheat in China 2.37
MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GM WHEAT 2.39
Figure 2.40: Equal Costs of GM and Non-GM Wheat Crops Price Estimation 2.39
Figure 2.41: Wheat Yield Statistics and Forecasts (1996-2010) 2.40
Figure 2.42: Annual Profit from Wheat Yield per Family and Laborer at Equal GM
and Non-GM Crops Costs 2.41
Figure 2.43: Lower Costs (20%) of GM Wheat Crops Price Estimation 2.42
Figure 2.44: Savings with GM Wheat Crops per Family & Laborer at 20%
Lower Costs 2.43
Figure 2.45: Total Wheat Cultivated Land in China (1996-2004) 2.44
Figure 2.46: Estimated GM Wheat Cultivated Land in China (2006-2015) 2.44
Figure 2.47: China GM Wheat Cultivated Land Forecasts (2006-2015) – Chart 2.45
MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GM CORN 2.46
Figure 2.48: Equal Costs of GM and Non-GM Corn Crops Price Estimation 2.46
Figure 2.49: Corn Yield Statistics and Forecasts (1996-2010) 2.47
Figure 2.50: Annual Profit from Corn Yield per Family and Laborer at Equal GM
and Non-GM Crops Costs 2.48
Figure 2.51: Lower Costs (20%) of GM Corn Crops Price Estimation 2.49
Figure 2.52: Savings with GM Corn Crops per Family & Laborer at 20%
Lower Costs 2.50
Figure 2.53: Total Corn Cultivated Land in China (1996-2004) 2.51
Figure 2.54: Estimated GM Corn Cultivated Land in China (2006-2015) 2.51
Figure 2.55: China GM Corn Cultivated Land Forecasts (2007-2015) – Chart 2.52
GM TOMATOES 2.53
GM RAPESEED 2.54
Figure 2.56: Total Sown Area of Oil-bearing Crops in China 2.55
Figure 2.57: Growth in Sown Area of Rapeseed 2.55
Figure 2.58: Sown Area of Rapeseed 2.56
GM TOBACCO 2.57
Figure 2.59: Total Sown Area of Tobacco in China 2.58
Figure 2.60: Sown Area of Tobacco in China – Chart 2.58
GM PEPPER 2.60
Figure 2.61: Total Sown Area of Vegetables in China 2.60
Figure 2.62: Total Sown Area of Vegetables in China – Chart 2.61
GM SOYBEANS 2.62
Figure 2.63: Imports of Soybeans 2.63
Figure 2.64: Exports of Soybeans 2.63
Figure 2.65: Imports and Exports of Soybeans 2.64
Figure 2.66: Domestic Production of Soybeans 2.64
Figure 2.67: Domestic Output of Soybeans 2.65
OTHER 2.66
IV. Government Regulation of the Industry 2.67
KEY POINTS 2.67
APPROVAL PROCESS 2.68
Figure 2.68: Current Stages of GM Crops 2.70
Figure 2.69: GM Bio-safety Approval Flow Chart 2.71
APPLICABLE RULES & REGULATIONS 2.73
V. Market Characteristics 2.75
MARKET TRENDS 2.75
MARKET DRIVERS 2.77
MARKET INHIBITORS 2.78
VI. Additional Information 2.81
MARKET ENTRY 2.81
CHALLENGES FOR FOREIGN SUPPLIERS 2.83
SUGGESTIONS FOR FOREIGN SUPPLIERS 2.84
Ch. 3 Supplier & Distributor Analysis 3.1
I. Background on Suppliers & Distributors 3.1
Figure 3.1: Background on Suppliers & Distributors Interviewed 3.3
Figure 3.2: Ownership of Suppliers Interviewed 3.4
Figure 3.3: Type of Companies Interviewed 3.5
Figure 3.4: Seeds Produced/Sold by Suppliers & Distributors Interviewed 3.5
Figure 3.5: Average Number of Employees by Company Type 3.6
Figure 3.6: Average Revenues by Company Type (2004) 3.7
Figure 3.7: Average Revenues (2004) 3.7
Figure 3.8: Average Percent Revenues from GM Crops by Company Type 3.8
Figure 3.9: Average Percent Revenues from GM Crops by Company Type 3.8
Figure 3.10: Percent Suppliers Exporting 3.9
II. Sales Information 3.10
KEY POINTS 3.10
OUTPUT 3.11
Figure 3.11: Average Annual Output of Insect Resistant Cotton by Company Type 3.11
Figure 3.12: Average Annual Output of Insect Resistant Cotton by Company Size 3.11
Figure 3.13: Average Annual Output of Insect Resistant Cotton by Ownership 3.11
Figure 3.14: Average Annual Output of Insect Resistant Cotton 3.12
SALES 3.13
Figure 3.15: Average Sales of Insect Resistant Cotton Seeds by Company Type 3.13
Figure 3.16: Sales of Insect Resistant Cotton by Company Size (2004) 3.13
Figure 3.17: Sales of Insect Resistant Cotton by Ownership (2004) 3.13
Figure 3.18: Average Percent Total Sales for GM Crops 3.14
Figure 3.19: Average Percent Total Sales for GM Crops by Company Size 3.14
Figure 3.20: Average Percent Total Sales for GM Crops by Ownership 3.15
SALES GROWTH RATES 3.16
Figure 3.21: Average Sales Growth Rate 3.16
Figure 3.22: Average Sales Growth Rate by Company Type 3.16
Figure 3.23: Average Sales Growth Rate by Company Size 3.16
Figure 3.24: Average Sales Growth Rate by Ownership 3.17
Figure 3.25: Average Sales Growth Rates 3.17
Figure 3.26: Current Sales Growth Rates 3.18
PRICING INFORMATION 3.19
Figure 3.27: Insect Resistant Cotton Prices – Actual Market Prices 3.19
Figure 3.28: Average Price Charged for Insect Resistant Cotton 3.21
Figure 3.29: Prices Charged for Insect Resistant Cotton 3.21
Figure 3.30: Average Price Charged for Insect Resistant Cotton by Company Type 3.21
Figure 3.31: Average Price Charged for Insect Resistant Cotton by Company Size 3.22
Figure 3.32: Average Price Charged for Insect Resistant Cotton by Ownership 3.22
Figure 3.33: Average Prices Charged for Insect Resistant Cotton 3.22
Figure 3.34: Assessment of Current Pricing Trends 3.23
Figure 3.35: Assessment of Current Pricing Trends 3.23
MAIN CUSTOMERS 3.26
Figure 3.36: Main Customers for GM Crops 3.26
SALES CHANNELS USED 3.28
Figure 3.37: Sales Channels Used 3.28
Figure 3.38: Sales Channels Used 3.28
Figure 3.39: Sales Channels Used by Company Size 3.29
Figure 3.40: Sales Channels Used by Ownership 3.29
Figure 3.41: Sales Channels Used by Company Type 3.29
Figure 3.42: Sales Channels Used 3.30
Figure 3.43: Average Percent Sales by Channel (Overall) 3.31
Figure 3.44: Average Percent Sales by Channel (Suppliers) 3.31
Figure 3.45: Average Percent Sales by Channel (Distributors) 3.31
Figure 3.46: Flow of Goods in GM Crops Market 3.32
DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS 3.33
Figure 3.47: Average Number of Distributors by Tier 3.33
Figure 3.48: Number of Distributors by Tier 3.33
Figure 3.49: Number of Tier 1 Distributors by Company Size 3.34
Figure 3.50: Number of Tier 1 Distributors by Ownership 3.34
Figure 3.51: Average Number of Tier 1 Distributors 3.34
Figure 3.52: Number of Distributors by Tier (Suppliers) 3.35
Figure 3.53: Number of Distributors by Tier (Distributors) 3.36
Figure 3.54: Suppliers Providing Technical, Sales Support to Distributors 3.37
Figure 3.55: Suppliers Providing Support to Distributors by Company Type 3.37
Figure 3.56: Suppliers Providing Support to Distributors by Company Size 3.38
Figure 3.57: Suppliers Providing Support to Distributors by Ownership 3.38
Figure 3.58: Suppliers Providing Support to Distributors 3.38
SALES OFFICES 3.40
Figure 3.59: Average Number of Sales Offices 3.40
Figure 3.60: Average Number of Sales Offices 3.40
Figure 3.61: Average Number of Sales Offices by Company Type 3.41
Figure 3.62: Average Number of Sales Offices by Company Size 3.41
Figure 3.63: Average Number of Sales Offices by Ownership 3.41
Figure 3.64: Average Number of Sales Offices 3.41
III. Competitive Analysis 3.43
KEY POINTS 3.43
COMPETITIVE SITUATION 3.44
Figure 3.65: Assessment of Competition 3.44
Figure 3.66: Assessment of Competition 3.45
Figure 3.67: Assessment of Competition by Company Size 3.45
Figure 3.68: Assessment of Competition by Company Type 3.45
TOP SUPPLIERS 3.46
Figure 3.69: Top GM Crop Suppliers 3.46
Figure 3.70: Assessment of Strengths & Weaknesses of Monsanto 3.47
Figure 3.71: Assessment of Strengths & Weaknesses of Andai Cotton 3.47
Figure 3.72: Assessment of Strengths & Weaknesses of Hebei Chuangshiji 3.47
FEEDBACK ON SUPPLIERS 3.48
Figure 3.73: Awareness of Select Suppliers 3.48
Figure 3.74: Awareness of Select Suppliers 3.48
Figure 3.75: Assessment of Supplier Market Positions 3.49
Figure 3.76: Self-Assessment of Market Share 3.49
IV. Market Assessment 3.51
Key Points 3.51
OPPORTUNITIES 3.52
Figure 3.77: Assessment of Opportunities for Sale of Insect Resistant Cotton 3.52
Figure 3.78: Assessment of Opportunities by Company Size 3.52
Figure 3.79: Assessment of Opportunities by Ownership 3.53
Figure 3.80: Assessment of Opportunities by Ownership, Company Size 3.53
DEMAND FOR GM COTTON 3.55
FIGURE 3.81: ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND FOR GM COTTON SEEDS 3.55
Figure 3.82: Assessment of Demand for GM Cotton Seeds 3.55
Figure 3.83: Assessment of Demand for GM Cotton Seeds by Company Size 3.56
Figure 3.84: Assessment of Demand for GM Cotton Seeds by Ownership 3.56
Figure 3.85: Assessment of Demand for GM Cotton Seeds by Ownership, Size 3.56
MARKET GROWTH 3.57
Figure 3.86: Assessment of Consumption Growth Rate of GM Cotton Seeds 3.57
FUTURE OF THE MARKET 3.59
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS 3.61
V. Supplier & Distributor Profiles 3.64
List of Contacts LoC.1
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