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Germany Food and Drink Report Q3 2007
Business Monitor International, Oct 2007, Pages: 67
The Germany Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germanys food and drink industry.
Although a full set of official trade figures had yet to be released at the time of writing, early indications from Germany’s Federal Statistical Office suggested that August 2007 would see a major increase in the price of milk and dairy products. The German press in early August reported that the price of milk in some parts of country had increased by more than 10% in less than a week, while butter and cheese prices reportedly rose by 50% and 10% respectively. The upsurge in the price of milk and dairy products on supermarket shelves has, in part, been triggered by growing demand in emerging economies such as China, Russia and some Eastern European countries, where people are drinking more milk as their standard of living improves. In China in particular, there is a shortage of home-produced milk. A third of all the milk produced worldwide is now being transported to China, much of it from the EU and a significant amount from Germany, which produces 27bn litres a year. Although German dairy farmers would like to increase production to cope with a current shortfall, they are prevented from doing so by EU milk quotas, imposed in 1984 and in force until 2015. Instead German dairy farmers have opted to increase their own prices, which they have long claimed are artificially low. This move has been reflected in higher retail costs for basic dairy items such as milk, butter and cheese.
In addition to higher-priced dairy products, a new round of price rises looks set to affect other basic food products. Bread prices could be the next to rise, partly because an increasing number of farmers are dedicating their maize crops to bio fuels, which are seen as a remedy for dependence on oil. The move by some farmers toward crops that can be used for biofuels has led to a slump in barley production. Some industry figures are now predicting that German beer prices could rise by as much as 40% as a result.
Chocolate is also likely to become more expensive because of the higher price of milk, while higher cheese prices look set to push up the price of various processed food items, including pizzas. Although we do not believe that Germany’s discount retailing model is under any immediate threat as a result of the recent price increases, hard discounters are likely to find their current business strategies being increasingly squeezed. This could accelerate their efforts to diversify their product portfolios, price ranges and target markets.
Meanwhile, Germany’s tobacco sector on September 1, 2007 saw the introduction of a new Federal law banning smoking in federal buildings, trains and other forms of public transport. The new law also bans cigarette sales to people under the age of 18. The law is just the latest in a series of new smoking restrictions being introduced across the country. On August 1, 2007, three German states imposed partial bans on smoking in places such as restaurants, hospitals, schools and state offices. Two more states plan to enforce similar laws by the end of the year. The remainder of Germany’s states are set to follow suit in 2008. Although it is too early to assess the full impact of these new restrictions, some are already predicting that on-trade sales of alcoholic drinks could suffer.
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