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Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry
Credit Analysis & Research Limited, Dec 2008, Pages: 99
After recording a strong performance in FY07, the Indian Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry fell into hard times in FY08. The domestic sales of the industry grew by 4.07% in FY08 as compared to a growth of 33.26% in FY07. The Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Goods Carrier (M&HCV GC) segment particularly bore the brunt of the situation, with the domestic sales in this segment declining by 5.88% in FY08. The Light Commercial Vehicles Goods Carrier (LCV GC) segment, due to diversity of its usage, managed to clock a decent growth of 11.65%. The Passenger Carriers (PC) segment registered a strong growth of 26.51% on the back of ordering by both, private players and State Transport Undertakings (STUs). The first half of FY09 brought more bad news for the industry as, in addition to M&HCV GC segment, the PC segment and the Export sales too remained subdued. Even the torch bearing LCV GC sub-segment of Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) 3.5 to <=5 tonnes). Tata Motors (TM) launched its tippers ‘1618’ and ‘2518’. It also launched multi-axle trucks ‘2516 Super Turbo’ and ‘3118’ and Tractor Trailer (TT) ‘Novus – LPS 4923 TC’. Ashok Leyland Limited (ALL) launched its multi-axle vehicle ‘3121 H’ and Tractor Trailer (TT) ‘4921’. Eicher Motors (EM) launched a multi-axle vehicle ‘HERCULES 35.31’. In the PC segment, TM launched its PC model ‘Super Milo Bus Chassis’, ALL launched its luxury bus model ‘Luxura’ in addition to two bus models, targeting the Bus Rapid Transport System (BRTS) and an inter-intra city bus model ‘12m BS II’ and Isuzu-Swaraj Mazda (SM) launched a 40-seater luxury bus. A number of launches are lined up for FY09 too.
Recently, the industry also saw a few collaborations between the domestic and the international manufacturers. ALL and Nissan Motor (NM) entered into a Joint Venture (JV) for manufacturing LCV, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) entered into a JV with Warrenville, a wholly-owned affiliate of Navistar International Corporation for manufacturing diesel engines for M&HCVs, EM and AB Volvo (Volvo) entered into a JV for manufacturing CVs.
In the short term, the industry growth is expected to be weighed down by the adverse macro-economic environment. Though the interest rates are not likely to climb up any more in this fiscal, it will take some time for the availability of credit to improve. In FY09, CARE Research expects the GC unit sales to grow between 4-5% while in tonnage terms, the segment is likely to see de-growth of 2-3%. However, the long-term growth should remain on track. We estimate the GC segment to register a 5-year Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6-7.5% in tonnage sales. The PC segment is expected to grow between 6-8%.
We estimate the CV industry to close FY09 with negative growth rate, however, it is expected to maintain its long term 5 year CAGR of 6-8% till FY13. The report on ‘Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry’ is divided into three sections. Section I of the report provides 5 year coverage on the industry from FY03-08, with specific focus of the performance of the industry in FY08 and H1 FY09. In addition, for a new reader, the basics of the industry too have been provided in Section II of the report. Section III of the report gives an analysis of the top five industry players which is followed by extensive data points in the annexure. Section I Current Status of the Market- The segment-wise performance of the industry in the domestic and export market in FY08 and H1 FY09 have been provided. Growth trends for each of the vehicle segments have been tracked for the past 5 years.
- Leadership position of the players in each of the vehicle segments have been presented along with the latest vehicle launches by the players.
Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry
- The cost & profitability trend of the industry has been covered for the last three years to underline the critical costs incurred by the companies.
- The emerging trends of the industry have been highlighted and a SWOT analysis of the industry is done.
- Our Long term (FY08-13) and short term (FY09) sales projection for the Goods Carrier segment have provided. Industry estimates of Long term sales projection for Passenger carriers have provided. Section II Industry Basics
- The evolution of the industry has been tracked from the days of restrictive government policies to current scenario along with the regulatory changes that were encountered in the process.
- The characteristics of the industry and its demand drivers have been explained, with specific focus on the impact of macroeconomic (Industrial activity, Interest rates, road infrastructure) and regulatory environment (overloading, aging & emission norms).Section III Company Financials
- This section gives the profiles of the top five players, namely, Tata Motors Ltd., Ashok Leyland Ltd., Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., Eicher Motors Ltd., Swaraj Mazda Ltd. The profile includes financials of the company for the last three financial years, product ranges, sales mix, capex plans and global forays. Besides this the details of corporate actions by other global and local players in India is also provided.
- Segment –wise domestic as well as export units sales of the industry as well as the top 5 players has been provided for the last 5 years (FY03-FY08).
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