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China Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Report 2007
Research In China, June 2007, Pages: 44
The global aluminum consumption is growing strongly: the global aluminum consumption in 2006 was higher than estimated growth levels with an increase of 8.0%, and the gap between supply and demand was 490 thousand tons. China is still the most important driver in the global aluminum consumption industry with a growth rate of 22.6%. The increase of consumption in China is due to the increase of demand in the construction, electric power and transportation industries.
It is predicted that there will only be a small surplus of primary aluminum in the world in 2007 and 2008: about 390 and 110 thousand tons, which means the increase of global aluminum inventories will be quite limited in the next two years. At present, global aluminum inventories can be supplied in 5.9 weeks, which is far lower than the average level of 9.3 weeks in the past 30 years. And once the consumption growth surpasses estimations, the inventories will be reduced and effect the price of aluminum.
In the next two years, the decreasing price of aluminum oxide will stabilize and will probably not decrease below 3000 Yuan/Ton in 2007.
Along with the increase of the output of China’s aluminum oxide industry, the dependency on import aluminum ores has increased drastically; it is predicted that the external dependency in 2008 will increase to 47.3%. And at present, the imported aluminum ores in China are mainly from Indonesia.
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