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Office Furniture Market Report 2004
Key Note Publications Ltd, April 2004
We estimate that, in 2003, the apparent UK market for office furniture and accessories was £1.18bn at manufacturers' selling prices (msp), a decrease of 1.8% on 2002. In 2002 and 2003, there was a steep downturn in demand for office furniture in the UK and worldwide, as a result of the deterioration in economic conditions and delayed decisions relating to investment in new office construction and office refurbishments until the return of more favourable conditions. Between 1999 and 2001, the apparent UK market for office furniture increased by 19%, although between 2001 and 2003, it fell by 18.3%.
Many new offices — and speculative offices that are still undergoing construction in areas that used to be in high demand, such as the M4/M40 corridors and central London — remain unlet. Even if the high gross domestic product (GDP) rates that are predicted by the Government for 2004 and 2005 are reached, there is little prospect of a quick recovery in demand for office space, as a result of the major changes taking place in the commercial sector of the service economy. It is evident from the various pronouncements made by companies with a large labour force that a rising number of routine service-sector jobs are being moved overseas to benefit from lower costs — a trend that is also evident in the manufacturing sector. Relocating overseas has serious implications for office furniture manufacturers, as it is likely to adversely affect demand in the domestic market.
Although the commercial sector is contracting, the public sector is expanding as a result of investment in service jobs. A major reorganisation of the National Health Service (NHS) is under way and a large number of civil service jobs from the various Ministries are to be relocated from London to the regions. In addition, expenditure on services such as education and the police has grown, as greater emphasis is being placed on improving their performance. Inevitably, this will lead to an increased demand for office space.
The rapid application of new technical developments in communication networks has led to the rise in the number of people working from home and away from a fixed office location. Demand for dedicated home-based office furniture is expected to grow rapidly, as more companies encourage people to work away from the office. In addition, flexible working and multitasking is increasing, which might change the type of furniture that will be required in the future.
Over the next 5 years, sales of office furniture are expected to rise steadily and, overall, between 2004 and 2008, the market is forecast to grow by 20.9%. Growing demand in the public sector and from home office workers is likely to outweigh the negative effects of some job losses in the commercial sector, which might be recouped over time.
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