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Digital Home Control Points and Revenue Distribution thru 2016
The Diffusion Group, April 2007, Pages: 61
The introduction of multimedia delivery over uncontrolled broadband will have a profound impact on the shape of both service and content revenues of the Digital Home. The stakes remain high as this market and particularly, home multimedia, enter the early stages of maturity.
This report is the second part of a two-report series updating TDG’s first in-depth study of the control points in the Digital Home. The first report, Digital Home Revenue and Profit Distributions in the U.S. – A Reality Check outlined the balance of forces in today's digital home (DH) market and identified those elements likely to impact the evolution of this ecosystem.
This update applies key findings from the Reality Check in order to (a) identify a set of scenarios regarding how the digital home is likely to evolve, (b) articulate forecasts for the scenario TDG considers most likely, and (c) offer recommendations for strategic planners within organizations interested in the future of the digital home in general and digital multimedia in particular.
Addressing the complex interactions between emerging digital home sectors, this report also sheds light on possible options for the future of digital home revenues, profits, and strategies that businesses should take in order to ensure prosperity for years to come. Subjects under consideration in this report include:
- The digital home visions and strategies needed to survive and succeed in what will be a rapidly evolving environment;
- An examination of the clusters of the digital home, including Productivity, Communication and Entertainment.
- A cross-market analysis between consumer needs, future DH scenarios, and business interests; and
- Detailed forecasts of the various DH sectors as well as explanations of the phenomena TDG considers most likely to occur and their likely impact on DH market dynamics.
Key Findings From the Report:
- TDG expects entertainment services expenses will peak in 2008, plateau through 2011, and begin a dramatic decline in 2012.
- The revenue and profit erosion associated with digital home services will be countered by several factors, including new technologies and their consequent applications and services.
Report Excerpt:
The juggernaut known as Microsoft remains virtually unchallenged in the consumer PC operating systems market. Given the general anemia that characterizes the U.S. PC market (and its associated pricing pressure), the threat posed by Linux in the enterprise segment and the emergence of Web-based computing services will increase as time goes by.
That said, Microsoft has never been a sleeping giant (at least not for too long) and it is using its tremendous resources to ensure its future dominance of the digital convergence market. Several fronts that have seen serious Microsoft engagement include:
- Digital formats and protocols (Audio, Video, DRM, Network protocols);
- The digital gaming market;
- The CE market (including smartphones, portable players, and PCs as a CE device);
- Internet-based services (MSN portal); and
- Its end-to-end IPTV system.
While it is too early to talk about the successes or failure of these engagements, it is clear that Microsoft is quite serious about the multimedia business. When Microsoft gets serious, others should as well.
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