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Cigarettes & Tobacco Market Report 2007
Key Note Publications Ltd, Aug 2007, Pages: 86


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The prevalence of cigarette smoking in the UK has fallen significantly since the early 1970s, and hence demand for cigarettes and tobacco is also in long-term decline. Nonetheless, the market grew by 10.3% in terms of value between 2002 and 2006, to £16.13bn at retail selling prices (rsp). This official figure almost certainly underestimates the true level of spending on tobacco in the UK, because it takes no account of spending on smuggled goods.

The increase in spending is partially explained by higher taxes, but the large increase in immigration from Eastern Europe that has taken place since 2004 may also have been a factor. Other trends have restrained the increase in the value of the market: some smokers have switched to lower-cost cigarette brands as the Government has continued to increase tobacco taxes, while others have switched to roll-your-own (RYO) products.

Cigarettes represent by far the largest sector of the market. The sector has been hit by an increase in smuggling, although the value of legitimate sales appears to be rising. Sales of hand-rolling tobacco (HRT) are growing in terms of both value and volume, and the sector is winning market share as high taxes encourage consumers to look for cheaper alternatives to manufactured cigarettes. The cigar sector is in long-term decline: the market has suffered from the trend away from formal eating occasions, from growing intolerance of strong smoke and from the fact that cigars have simply become less fashionable. Sales of pipe tobacco are also in long-term decline.

The UK tobacco market is dominated by two publicly quoted companies, Imperial Tobacco and Gallaher. Following a series of acquisitions, Imperial Tobacco is now the world's fourth-largest tobacco company. Gallaher became part of the third-largest tobacco company in the world as a result of its merger with Japan Tobacco in December 2006. British American Tobacco (BAT), the other UK tobacco major, is the world's second-largest tobacco company and is increasingly focused on fast-growing developing markets, rather than advanced economies. It has only a small share of the UK market.

Key Note forecasts that the UK market for cigarettes and tobacco will continue to increase in terms of value between 2007 and 2011. However, volume consumption will continue to decline, and the growth in the market's value will be driven by price rises as the Government increases tobacco taxes in line with inflation. Further restrictions on smoking are likely to come into effect and antipathy towards smoking will grow among the non-smoking public. However, the high levels of immigration should have a positive impact on the market, and evidence from Scotland suggests that the ban on smoking in enclosed public places (effective nationwide from 1st July 2007) may also fuel sales of tobacco as people increase the amount they smoke at home.

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