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360 Degree CEO Review of the Global Wireless Test & Measurement Markets
Frost & Sullivan, Dec 2007, Pages: 99
Market Overview
Introduction of New Technologies Driving Growth
Spurred on by the development of new technologies such as W-CDMA/HSDPA, HSUPA, TD-SCDMA, and CDMA2000 1xEV-DO, revenues in the world wireless communications test and measurement market grew by 13.7 percent in 2006. While 3G technology has been playing a vital role in the progress of this market, HSDPA and HSUPA are also likely to enhance market value and growth in the future. Additionally, in countries such as China, where the number of mobile subscribers and service providers is constantly increasing, TD-SCDMA has been a significant driver for growth The vision in the wireless arena is to integrate all technologies, such as 3G, W-CDMA, HSDPA, HSUPA, WiMAX, WLAN, Wi-Fi, and so on – in one network.
Quiet significantly, 3G long-term evolution (LTE) is likely to happen in the near future (expected to be deployed in late 2007 or early 2008). 4G standards are also being implemented gradually and therefore, the capabilities and services of WiMAX and so on are expected to increase. 'Although the standards for 3G LTE are in place and the quality of full video download are not very commendable at present, they are expected to be rolled out in a more efficient manner with 4G technology,' notes the analyst of this research service. 'More R&D is expected in the 4G arena to ensure the efficient functioning of hybrid networks, full-motion video, wider bandwidth, and so on.'
TD-SCDMA Standard to Become the Dominant 3G Standard in China
After eight long years (from 1998-2005) of development, China’s domestically developed 3G technology standard TD-SCDMA is expected to be the core of China’s mobile network. China’s Ministry of Information Industry (MII) named TD-SCDMA the country’s official standard for 3G mobile phone services on January 20, 2006. China has implemented a series of tests on TD-SCDMA since 2001, and results show that the equipment and terminals based on TD-SCDMA can support most of the 3G services. China Telecom, China Netcom and China Mobile have carried out the TD-SCDMA trials before real commercial use, in the northern city of Baoding, the eastern city of Qingdao and the southern city of Xiamen in China, respectively, in 2006. The result of these trials is expected to be the basis on which China will decide when and to whom to issue its first 3G license. It is widely believed within the industry that China is likely to issue a TD-SCDMA license ahead of WCDMA and CDMA2000 standards, and implement favorable policies for operators using the technology.
Among the product segments, the mobile station test equipment segment accounted for maximum revenues in 2006, and is likely to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5 percent between 2006 and 2013. This segment, along with the base station & air interface test equipment segment is likely to account for about 94.3 percent of the World wireless test and measurement equipment market by 2013. 'GSM remains one of the leading wireless technologies and emerging technologies such as W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA are likely to lend to the growth of the GSM testing segment,' says the analyst. 'While CDMA has been slowly but steadily gaining popularity with CDMA2000 1x EV-DO, the WLAN and Bluetooth standard segment had the smallest revenue share of the base station and air interface test equipment market, with a meager 5.8 percent in 2006.'
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