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Weathering the Storm in Savings 2007
Datamonitor, Dec 2007, Pages: 19
OUR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Our believes that 2008-09 will be characterized by struggling economies worldwide 2
Rising interest rates, excessive borrowing and negative savings rates have combined in a perfect storm that will shake most of the worlds economies 2
The widespread securitization of loans will compound this problem 2
Consumers were not alone in overextending themselves; state debt servicing is up against budget, while tax revenues are sharply down, which may signal a muni bond crisis ahead 3
The US economy is not healthy enough to expand itself out of these conditions 5
Foreign direct investment may also boost the economy; unfortunately foreign investors have run for the hills 6
A continued Treasury sell-off may further depress the dollar and, at worst, force interest rate hikes 7
Another major terrorist attack in the US will destabilize the economy further 7
Market capitalization, to varying degrees, will fall worldwide as US stock markets continue their jitters 8
With consumers seeking safe havens, banks will compete fiercely to secure share of wallet 8
Inter-bank rivalry will be exacerbated by competition from alternative savings and investments providers 9
In key economies, savings deposits will hold their own against alternative vehicles 10
DURING THE DOWNTURN, THE RACE WILL BE TO THE SWIFT; A FOCUSED EFFORT WILL YIELD RESULTS IN THE RECOVERY 11
Early strategies must focus on maintaining rate parity 11
Customers will be keen to optimize tax-free savings 11
Online savings accounts and money market accounts will provide quick wins 12
Providers operating with downsized budgets can optimize effectiveness through focused and targeted marketing 13
Banks that can harness investments in customer relationship management will optimize the opportunities that an expanded customer base offers 14
Deepening and expanding customer ties will be key 14
Customers are more likely to reward those providers who offer innovative solutions for improving their overall financial position 14
During the downturn, despite the influx into savings products, consumers will also be dealing with debt 14
Exchange rate volatility presents opportunities for gains 15
As stock markets begin to recover, the trick will be to hold on to savings customers 15
Falling interest rates will provide new opportunities for banks 16
APPENDIX 17
Definitions 17
Capital protected product 17
Certificate of deposit (CD) 17
Customer relationship management (CRM) 17
Fixed income annuity 17
Fixed income instruments 17
ISA 17
Offset account 17
Structured product 17
Sweep account 17
Whole life insurance 18
Methodology 18
Further reading 18
Ask the analyst 18
Our consulting 18
Disclaimer 18
List of Figures
Figure 1: General obligation and revenue muni yields have increased in recent weeks, while Treasury yields have decreased, indicating a shift from munis to Treasuries 5
Figure 2: The US has run a trade deficit since 2001 6
Figure 3: US dollar exchange rates have fallen against the European currencies since the last market downturn 7
Figure 4: Deposits as a % of retail savings & investments, UK, US, China, India, 2002-11 11
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