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Philippines Commercial Banking Report Q12008
Business Monitor International, Jan 2008, Pages: 32
The Philippines Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines commercial banking industry.
From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensive comparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible in the past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sector and conditions prevailing in other sectors.
The Philippines’ overall CBBER is 45.3. The country has a lower CBBER than most countries in the Asia Pacific region surveyed by BMI. The Philippines’ CBBER compares poorly to Hong Kong’s region leading score of 79.5 and is closer to the lowest score attained in the region, Sri Lanka’s 28.4.
The Philippines earns low to moderate scores for each of the four banking elements of the limits to potential returns. In relation to other countries surveyed by BMI, the Philippines is a country where total assets are moderate, the likely growth in total assets is moderate, the expected growth in client loans is very small and there is little potential for banks to earn fees from distribution of insurance products and other activities. A solid performance with regard to BMI’s overall Country Risk Rating (CRR) has helped to offset low scores in the other key areas.
Following Q107’s 17-year high growth rate of 6.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), the Philippine government remains optimistic about hitting its full-year target of 6.1-6.7%. However, with exports expected to moderate in H207 and capital inflows anticipated to slow, we remain more cautious about the growth prospects, forecasting economic growth of 6.0% in 2007.
The Philippines enjoyed its fastest growth rate in 17 years in Q107, as healthy domestic consumption, sustained export growth and increased government spending combined to boost growth to 6.9% y-o-y. Government officials have said that the full-year target of 6.1-6.7% growth is well within reach, and could even be revised up after the Philippines recorded the third-best first quarter performance of all Asian countries, trailing behind only Vietnam (7.7%) and China (11.1%). In light of the recent data, we have revised up our growth forecast for 2007 to 6.0%, although we still retain a slightly more conservative outlook than the government, as we anticipate exports and remittance inflows to drop slightly from their highs in H207. Beyond 2007, we have also upped our growth forecasts, although we still expect growth to slow as the government’s fiscal stimulus lessens as it strives to achieve a balanced budget. We are now forecasting growth to average 5.6% over our five-year forecast period, as it gradually slows from 6.0% in 2007 to 5.3% in 2011.
Also available
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