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Croatia Insurance Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, March 2008, Pages: 30
The Croatia Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's insurance industry.
This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI’s Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.
Croatia’s IBER is 56.3. Relative to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it is a moderately attractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Croatia stands out for its strong regulatory framework. The economic outlook is germane. Government policies are likely to remain constant over the long-term. However, the IBER is held back by the underdevelopment of the life segment, the bureaucracy and external risk.
Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 16% annually in local currency terms and by 16% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 18% annually in local currency terms and by 18% in US dollar terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the anticipated rise in nominal GDP from around US$48bn to US$71bn and an expected increase in non-life penetration from 2.78% of GDP to 4.00%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from US$117 per capita in 2007 to US$270 per capita in 2012. Croatia’s total population is declining.
The competitive landscape, in both the non-life and the life segment, is fragmented. Neither segment is particularly open to participation by foreign groups, and there exist clear barriers to entry into the market as it is still largely controlled by the state. As the market is underdeveloped, however, Croatia may still attract some foreign interest.
Croatia’s non-life segment has grown significantly over the last two years. It is currently among the top in its region. Like most other countries in the region, more than half of this is accounted for by motor insurance. However, the market is still primarily local and somewhat under-developed, meaning that there may be room for cross-border groups to move in.
The main weakness of Croatia’s insurance sector is the small size of the life segment. Despite the several cross-border companies present, it is apparent that the market is not yet a strong one, though its score is about average for Eastern Europe in the IBER breakdown.
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