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Poland Insurance Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, March 2008, Pages: 33
The Poland Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Polands insurance industry.
This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI’s Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.
Poland’s IBER is 63.4. Relative to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, it is a moderately attractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Poland stands out for the likely absolute growth in non-life premiums and the measure of openness of the non-life and life segments. The economic outlook is positive and the new government is committed to introducing fiscal and economic reform. However, the IBER is held back by overall size of the industry and low levels of life and non-life penetration. It is also held back by the legal framework and bureaucracy in Poland.
Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 14% annually in local currency terms and by 15% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 10% annually in local currency terms and by 11% in US dollar terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the anticipated rise in nominal GDP from around US$419.8bn to US$610bn and an expected increase in non-life penetration from 1.67% of GDP to 2.30%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from US$207.20 per capita in 2007 to US$350 per capita in 2012. Poland’s total population is declining.
The competitive landscape, in both the non-life and the life segment, is very open to participation by foreign groups, although foreigners are more important in the life than in the non-life segment. The former state-owned monopoly, PZU, has lost market share, but still accounted for over 40% of gross non-life premiums in 2004. The market is small by world standards, and so the number of world-class multinationals who are present in Poland is astounding. Rationalisation of these firms has begun and we find it difficult to believe that there will not be further significant rationalisation
The strengths of the sector lie in its relative size in comparison to other countries in the region, its continuing growth and the relative openness to foreign players. Economic conditions are, and are likely to remain, favourable, and the new government is committed to privatisation and introducing fiscal and economic reform. The main weakness of Poland’s insurance sector is the low penetration rate and the overall legal framework and bureaucracy of the sector. There may also be threats from the international credit crisis and some slowdown in the economy.
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