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Slovenia Insurance Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, March 2008, Pages: 30
The Slovenia Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenias insurance industry.
This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI’s Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.
Slovenia’s IBER is 62.6. Relative to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), it is a highly attractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Slovenia stands out for its country structure and regulatory framework. The economic outlook is germane. Government policies are likely to remain constant over the long term. However, the IBER is held back by the underdevelopment of the life segment. It is also held back by the external risk and bureaucracy in Slovenia.
Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 8% annually in local currency terms and by 7% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 15% annually in local currency terms and by 14% in US dollar terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the anticipated rise in non-life density from around US$855 to US$1,193 and an expected increase in life penetration from 1.49% of GDP to 2.19%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from about US$314 to US$600, and the population is slowly increasing.
Neither the life nor the non-life segment is particularly open to participation by foreign groups, as they are both largely controlled by former state monopolies. The top five local firms claim 90% of the total market. There could be a realignment of interests within Austrias financial services, which means that Grawe or UNIQA would rethink their commitment to non-life insurance in some of the smaller markets in the CEE region. Alternatively, there could be a piecemeal sale of individual operations across the region.
Compared with the other countries in Eastern Europe, Slovenia has a very strong economy and is likely to grow further. It is likely to remain largely stable regardless of the upcoming elections in October, due to a broad political and economic consensus. While the market is not easily penetrated from the outside, Slovenian insurers are branching out and developing businesses off shore. There remain a large number of people with insufficient or indeed no insurance. There are few players, however, in the Slovenian market, and the top five companies hold 90% of the market. Rationalisation, therefore, is not as much of a factor here as in other Eastern European countries. Slovenia’s economy may also be adversely affected by a decrease in its export market, due to the slowing down of its main trading partners. The rate of inflation is also one of the largest in the EU.
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