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Saudi Arabia Insurance Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, March 2008, Pages: 29
The Saudi Arabia Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabias insurance industry.
This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI’s Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries. Saudi Arabia’s IBER is 51.6. Relative to other countries in Middle East and Africa, it is a moderately attractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Saudi Arabia stands out for the country structure. However, the IBER is held back by the underdevelopment of the life segment and non-life premiums. It is also held back by the legal framework in Saudi Arabia and GDP volatility.
Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 18% annually in local currency terms and by 18% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 26% annually in local currency terms and by 25% in US dollar terms. In the non-life segment in 2007-2012 the anticipated rise in nominal GDP from around US$363bn to US$396bn is low. However, there is a better relative increase in non-life penetration from 0.67% of GDP to 1.40%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from US$3.8 per capita in 2007 to US$10 per capita in 2012. Saudi Arabia’s total population is expected to rise from 24.7mn to 28.02mn.
The non-life market is fragmented, but will likely become less so. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) has indicated that it will not be issuing new licences for five years. Many of the newly established firms may find that Saudi Arabia is not the bonanza for health and auto insurers that they expected it to be. Massive competition may cause a compression in premiums. Consolidation and/or exits from the market may result. NCCI will remain a dominant force in the non-life segment. Erosion of its market share will not necessarily mean an erosion in its profitability. Saudi Arabia’s non-life segment is relatively small but is rapidly growing. A larger contributor to the non-life segment is health insurance, which is expected to grow significantly in coming years, in response to policy changes. However, this sector may be more competitive than anticipated by other commentators. The legal framework is a significant drawback on IBER and looks likely to worsen.
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