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United States Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2008
Business Monitor International, May 2008, Pages: 110
The United States Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Despite concerns over the economy, the US drug market should continue its solid growth in the comingyears with BMI expecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.99% for 2007-2012. By the end of the forecast period total drug expenditure should reach US$364.7bn. The key driver of growth is swelling health expenditure, which in the next five years should breach the US$3trn mark. According to data from the OECD, in 1980 the US spent 8.8% of GDP on health. In 2012,BMI estimates that this will have risen to 17.9%, by far the highest level in the world. The event that will have the most impact on health expenditure will be the Presidential election in 2008. The two leading Democratic candidates - Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton - have both pledged to implement universal health systems if elected.
However, it is difficult to know whether this would have an inflationary or deflationary impact. Less emphasis on the private sector might stop health insurance premiums spiralling upwards, but bringing more than 40mn uninsured citizens under coverage will also require increased spending. Meanwhile, underlying trends such as the rapidly ageing population and increasing numbers of retirees will continue unabated.
One problem that drug-makers are complaining about is raised approval standards at the US FDA, meaning that fewer product candidates are making the grade. Jean-Paul Garnier, CEO of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), claims that his company is preparing 25 launches over the next few years, but a number are being delayed, which would not have been delayed two years ago. This has caused BMI to slightly downgrade the US’s Business Environment Ranking, although the country is still comfortably the leader in the Americas region and is still at the top of the global rankings ahead of Switzerland.
Tougher operating conditions have not deterred FDI. Over the past quarter a number of US assets have been snapped up with OTC firm Adams Respiratory Therapeutics being bought by UK-based Reckitt Benckiser. Japanese drugmaker Astellas has also acquired US-based biotech firm Agensys in a deal worth US$537mn, as it looks to expand its portfolio of monoclonal antibody (MAb) therapies. The falling dollar, meanwhile, has played into the hands of domestic drugmakers, such as Schering Plough, with a strong presence overseas.
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