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Poland Food and Drink Report Q2 2008
Business Monitor International, March 2008, Pages: 63
The Poland Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Polands food and drink industry.
Signs that the Polish mass grocery retail (MGR) sector is continuing to consolidate were evident in the first quarter of 2008, as discussed in BMI’s recently published Poland Food & Drink Report for Q208. Following its 2007 acquisition of the Ahold Polska store network, French retailer Carrefour leapt from the country’s number six MGR operator up to second position. Then in early 2008 the company announced its expansion plans for the year, which include the launch of 20 Carrefour 5 Minute, as well opening 36 stores across three formats, with an investment of EUR100mn (US$146mn). Carrefour also said that it will use these investment funds to complete the rebranding of the Ahold Polska stores, saying that it does not plan on making any more acquisitions this year, but will instead focus on organic growth and integration of its previous acquisitions. This followed the deal between Germany’s Tengelmann and Portuguese retailer Jerónimo Martins in which Tengelmann agreed to sell its Plus discount stores in Portugal and Poland for EUR 320mn (US$460mn). Jerónimo Martins was already the leading discount operator in Poland, operating over 1000 stores under the Biedronka banner, with this acquisition significantly beefing up its store network.
Poland’s retail scene is crowded, with about 20 large chains vying for market share, but is also far from mature. The country’s Spolem co-operative networks have thousands of outlets but face tough competition and are consolidating into a single network in order to better compete. In many places Spolem and independents are still the most accessible grocer for most consumers. However, co-operatives are the only format forecast to decline in value, dropping 42.9% to US$0.7bn between 2007 and 2012. Currently we are forecasting that the total MGR market will see growth of 70.4% over the forecast period, to reach US$64.8bn. The value of the hypermarket segment is forecast to grow by 94.3% to US$37.43bn, representing the largest value share within the MGR market. Supermarkets will experience growth of 66.2% to US$17.9bn while discount stores will grow by 28.8% to US$7.4bn in 2012. Given that a relatively large percentage of the population is still on low incomes, the discount format is popular in Poland, and will remain so for some time.
Currently, most convenience stores in Poland are located in petrol stations and are not part of a wider network, but are small independent operations. However, this is slowly changing, with Carrefour now leading this shift. BMI is forecasting that convenience stores will grow in value terms by 45.4% to US$1.6bn to 2012, driven by increasing incomes and longer working hours. However, if Carrefour enjoys success with this model and decides to expand further, this could have a significant impact on this market segment and we would adjust our forecasts accordingly. As reflected in these expansions, the leading players in the MGR sector are increasingly taking a larger percentage of overall sales, forcing smaller and less successful operators out of business, a trend we expect to continue, if not accelerate, in coming years.
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