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Australian Mobile Market, 2007 Review & 2008-2012 Forecast
Telsyte, April 2008, Pages: 46
Section Description Page
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
2 INTRODUCTION 7
2.1 Methodology 7
2.2 Definitions 8
3 2007 AUSTRALIAN MOBILE MARKET REVIEW 9
3.1 Overall Market Review 9
3.1.1 Beyond 100% mobile penetration… and counting 9
3.1.2 Non-voice and 3G drive ARPU U-turn 10
3.1.3 SMS dominates but mobile broadband “explodes” 12
3.1.4 Overall market shares 14
3.2 3G Market Review 15
3.2.1 3G market shares 17
3.3 Mobile Market Review Summary 18
3.4 Carrier Performance and Activity Review 19
3.4.1 Telstra 19
3.4.2 Optus 21
3.4.3 Vodafone 23
3.4.4 Hutchison 25
3.4.5 MVNOs 27
4 2007-2011 MARKET FORECAST AND OUTLOOK 28
4.1 Forecast Assumptions 28
4.2 Market Forecast 28
4.2.1 Subscriber forecast: towards 112% penetration in 2012 28
4.2.2 Revenue forecast: revenue growing twice as fast as subscribers 29
4.2.3 Technology generation forecast: 2G era is over 31
4.2.4 Billing status and user segment forecast 33
4.2.5 Voice and SMS traffic forecast: volume rises while price drops 34
4.2.6 Mobile broadband vs. wireless broadband forecast: battle is won 36
4.2.7 Five-Year Mobile Market Forecast Summary 37
4.3 Market Outlook 38
5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 41
6 RELATED RESEARCH 43
7 APPENDIX – MAJOR AUSTRALIAN MOBILE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS,
2007-1Q2008
44
Figures
Figure Page
Figure 1 – Australian Mobile Subscribers and Annual Service Revenue, 2003 – 2007 10
Figure 2 – Australian Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rates, 2003 - 2007 10
Figure 3 – Australian Mobile Annual Service Revenue, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2003 - 2007 11
Figure 4 – Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU, 2003 - 2007 11
Figure 5 – Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU By Generation, 2003 - 2007 12
Figure 6 – Australian Mobile Non-Voice Revenue by Application Type, 2007 13
Figure 7 – Australian Mobile Subscriber Market Share by Carrier, 2007 14
Figure 8 – Australian Mobile Revenue Market Share by Carrier, 2007 14
Figure 9 – Australian Mobile Subscribers by Technology Generation, 2003 - 2007 16
Figure 10 – Australian Mobile Service Revenue by Technology Generation, 2003 –2007 16
Figure 11 – Australian 3G Subscriber Share by Provider, 2007 17
Figure 12 – Australian 3G Service Revenue Share by Provider, 2007 18
Figure 13 – Australian Mobile Subscriber and Penetration Rate Forecast, 2008 - 2012 29
Figure 14 – Australian Mobile Service Subscriber and Revenue Forecast, 2008 - 2012 29
Figure 15 – Australian Mobile Service Revenue forecast, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2008 - 2012 30
Figure 16 – Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2008 - 2012 30
Figure 17 – Australian Mobile Non-Voice Service Revenue Forecast by Application Type,
2008 – 2012
31
Figure 18 – Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Technology Generation, 2008 - 2012 32
Figure 19 – Australian Mobile Revenue Forecast by Technology Generation, 2008 - 2012 32
Figure 20 – Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast by Technology Generation, 2008 - 2012 33
Figure 21 – Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Billing Status, 2008 - 2012 33
Figure 22 – Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by User Segment, 2008 - 2012 34
Figure 23 – Australian Mobile Voice Minute and Cost/Min Forecast, 2008 - 2012 35
Figure 24 – Australian Mobile SMS Traffic and Cost/SMS Forecast, 2008 - 2012 35
Figure 25 – Australian Mobile Broadband and Wireless Broadband Subscriber Forecast, 2008
– 2012
36
Figure 26 – Telstra’s Mobile Technology Evolution RoadMap, 2008-2013 38
Figure 27 – Australian Mobile Technology Evolution RoadMap, 2008-2010 39
Figure 28 – Current and Future Adoption of Business Mobile Applications, 2007 40
Tables
Table Page
Table 1 – Australian Mobile Broadband Offerings by Carrier, 1Q 2008 13
Table 2 – Australian 3G Network Deployment, 1Q 2008 15
Table 3 – Australian Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007 19
Table 4 – Telstra Mobile Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007 21
Table 5 – Optus Mobile Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007 23
Table 6 – Vodafone Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007 25
Table 7 – Hutchison 3 Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007 26
Table 8 – MVNO Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007 27
Table 9 – Australian Mobile Market Forecast, 2008 -2012 37
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