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4G Wireless - From 2008 to 2014
Visant Strategies, Inc., April 2008, Pages: 135
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 And the Winner Is?
1.2 Few Significant Contracts Yet
1.3 Critical Inflection Points
1.3.1 Sprint and Mobile WiMAX
1.3.2 UMB and 802.20
1.3.3 LTE Timeline
1.3.4 Virgin Carriers
1.3.5 China and India
1.4 More or Less Fragmentation
1.5 WiMAX Honeymoon Over
1.6 Elephants Move Slowly
1.7 Asia
1.8 Third Generation Has Been Here Yet Still Many GSM Subscribers
1.9 Femtocells
1.10 Clean Break From Circuit Switching
1.11 Key Differentiators between the Technologies
1.11.1 WiMAX
1.11.2 LTE
1.11.3 UMB
1.11.4 802.20
1.12 4G Figures and Forecasts
1.12.1 4G Subscribers
1.12.2 4G Subscriber Revenues
1.12.3 4G Devices Shipments and Revenues
1.12.4 4G Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
1.12.5 Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
1.12.6 Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
SECTION TWO
Common Trends, Definitions, Technologies
2.1 Network Upgrade Drivers (Why LTE, 802.16m or UMB)
2.2 Design Goals
2.3 Enabling Technologies
2.4 Common Challenges
2.4.1 Performance Gains over Evolved 3G
2.4.2 PAPR, Uplink Budget and Performance
2.4.3 Frequency Reuse
2.4.4 Frequency Reuse Methods/Technologies
2.4.5 Spectrum Scarcity and Cost
2.4.6 Site Acquisition
2.4.7 Intellectual Property Rights
2.5 Standards Activity
2.4.1 IMT Advanced
2.4.2 NGMN Group
2.6 4G New Spectrum Allocation
2.7 Open Network Initiatives
SECTION THREE
Long Term Evolution (LTE)
3.1 Definitions LTE and SAE
3.2 Status and Time to Market
3.3 Backers
3.4 Contract Announcements
3.5 Technical Overview
3.5.1 Air Interface
3.5.1.1 Downlink
3.5.1.2 Uplink
3.5.2 Channel sizes
3.5.3 Modulation
3.5.4 Throughout
3.5.5 MIMO, Intelligent Antenna Support
3.5.6 Spectrum
3.5.7 Latency
3.5.8 Duplexing
3.5.9 Core Network
3.5.10 Other Design Goals
3.6 Technical Issues Trends
3.6.1 Performance compared to Evolved HSPA (HSPA+)
3.6.2 Unproven Technology
3.7 LTE Market Factors
3.7.1 Timing
3.7.2 Certification of User Devices
3.7.3 Whose Standard?
3.7.4 IPR
3.7.5 Competition
3.7.6 Response to Carriers
3.7.7 Cost
3.7.8 Installed Base
3.7.9 Risk
3.7.10 Spectrum
3.8 LTE Figures and Forecasts
3.8.1 LTE Subscribers and Revenues
3.8.2 LTE Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
3.8.3 LTE Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
3.8.4 LTE Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
3.8.5 LTE Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
SECTION FOUR
Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB)
4.1 UMB Intro
4.2 Standards and Committees
4.3 Status
4.4 Time to Market
4.5 Backers
4.6 Contract Announcements
4.7 Available Opportunity and 3GPP2 Installed Base
4.8 Technical Overview
4.8.1 Air Interface
4.8.2 Handoffs
4.8.3 Legacy Support
4.8.4 Latency
4.8.5 Channel sizes and Spectrum.
4.8.6 Modulation
4.8.7 Throughout
4.8.8 MIMO, Multiple Antenna Support
4.8.9 VoIP Users Supported
4.8.10 Duplexing
4.9 Technical Issues, Trends and Considerations
4.9.1 Unproven
4.9.2 OFDM Uplink Budget
4.9.3 OFDM and N=1 Performance
4.9.4 4x4 MIMO
4.10 UMB Market Factors
4.10.1 Support
4.10.2 Loss of Major Customers
4.10.3 Time to Market
4.10.4 Qualcomm Factor
4.10.5 IEEE 802.20
4.10.6 What Happened to FLASH-OFDM
4.10.7 Installed Base
4.10.8 Intellectual Property Licensing Fees
4.10.9 Public Perception
4.11 UMB Figures and Forecasts
4.11.1 CDMA Subscribers
4.11.2 CDMA Device Shipments
4.11.2 UMB Subscribers and Revenues
4.11.3 UMB Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
4.11.4 UMB Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
4.11.5 UMB Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
4.11.6 UMB Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
SECTION FIVE
IEEE 802.20
5.1 802.20 Definitions
5.2 802.20 Lives
5.3 Time to Market
5.4 Contributors and Voters
5.5 Contract Announcements
5.6 Technical Overview
5.6.1 Work in Progress
5.6.2 Expected Attributes
5.7 802.20 Market Factors
5.7.1 Support
5.7.2 Too Late?
5.7.3 Credibility
5.7.4 The Bottom Line
5.8 802.20 Figures and Forecasts
5.8.1 802.20 Subscribers and Revenues
58.2 802.20 Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
5.8.3 802.20 Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
5.8.4 802.20 Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
5.8.5 802.20 Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
SECTION SIX
Evolved High Speed Packet Access (HSPA+)
6.1 HSPA and HSPA+ Defined
6.2 Standards and Committees
6.3 Status
6.4 Time to Market
6.5 Backers
6.6 Contract Announcements
6.7 HSPA Main Technologies (Releases 5 and 6)
6.7.1 HS-DSCH (High-Speed Shared Downlink Channel)
6.7.2 E-DCH (Enhanced Dedicated Channel)
6.7.3 Reduced Transmission Time Interval (TTI)
6.7.4 Scheduling and Link Adaptation
6.7.5 Higher Order Modulation
6.7.6 Hybrid ARQ and Soft Combining
6.8 HSPA+ Technical Attributes (Releases 7 and 8)
6.8.1 Modulation
6.8.2 Air Interface
6.8.3 Throughput
6.8.3.1 Downlink
6.8.3.2 Uplink
6.8.4 Voice Capacity
6.8.5 Handoffs
6.8.6 Latency
6.8.7 Intelligent Antenna Support
6.9 HSPA Market Factors
6.9.1 Upgrade Complexity
6.9.2 Existing Networks
6.9.3 Backwards Compatibility
6.9.4 Proven Air Interface
6.9.5 HSPA+ With MIMO
6.9.6 Economies of Scale
6.9.7 Low Risk Option
6.9.8 Recoup Investment
6.9.9 Uplink Budget
6.9.10 Evaluation
6.10 HSPA+ Figures and Forecasts
6.10.1 WCDMA Subscribers
6.10.2 WCDMA Device Shipments
6.10.3 HSPA+ Subscribers and Revenues
6.10.4 HSPA+ Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
6.10.5 HSPA+ Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
6.10.6 HSPA+ Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
6.10.7 HSPA+ Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
SECTION SEVEN
WiMAX 802.16
7.1 802.16 and WiMAX, Background
7.2 Standards and Task Groups of Note
7.2.1 802.16e (802.16e-2005)
7.2.2 802.16d (802.16-2004)
7.2.3 802.16h
7.2.4 Relay Task Group (802.16j)
7.2.5 Task Group M (802.16m)
7.3 The WiMAX Forum
7.3.1 Members
7.3.2 WiMAX Forum Role
7.3.3 Certification
7.3.4 Current Certified WiMAX Forum Product and Timelines
7.4 802.16 2004, 802.16e-2005 and WiMAX feature set
7.4.1 Channel Sizes
7.4.2 Frequency Allocations
7.4.3 Duplexing.
7.4.4 Modulation
7.4.5 FFT Size
7.4.6 Mobile WiMAX Wave 1 and 2 Profiles, Key Attributes
7.5 Technical Considerations
7.5.1 Data Rates and Spectral Efficiency
7.5.2 WiMAX Performance
7.5.2.1 Summary of Limitations
7.5.2.2 Frequency Reuse, Handoffs, and Mobility
7.5.2.3 Interference Management
7.5.2.4 Uplink (PAPR and TDD)
7.5.2.5 MIMO a Must?
7.5.3 Intelligent Antennas use for WiMAX
7.5.3.1 MIMO (Matrix A and B)
7.5.3.2 AAS
7.6 Market Considerations
7.6.1 WiMAX Base Station and CPE Pricing
7.6.2 Certification Expectations
7.6.3 Interoperability
7.6.4 Proprietary and Competing Solutions
7.6.5 WiMAX Everywhere
7.6.6 Laptop WiMAX
7.6.7 Skipping to Wave 2 Devices
7.6.8 Dual Mode Cellular/WiMAX Devices
7.6.9 WiMAX vs. CDMA/WCDMA
7.6.10 WiBro
7.6.11 WiMAX as a Hot Spot Solution
7.7 WiMAX Figures and Forecasts
7.7.1 WiMAX Fixed and Mobile Subscribers and Revenues
7.7.2 WiMAX Phone, CPE and Modem ASPs, Shipments and Revenues
7.7.3 WiMAX Base Station ASP, Deployments, Shipments and Revenues
7.7.4 WiMAX Femtocell Subscribers and Service Revenues
7.7.5 WiMAX Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
TABLES
Table 1-1
4G Subscribers
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-2
4G Subscribers by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-3
4G Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-4
4G Subscriber Revenues by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-5
4G Device Shipments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-6
4G Device Shipments by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-7
4G Device Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-8
4G Device Revenues by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-9
4G Base Stations
Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-10
4G Base Station Deployments by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-11
4G Base Station Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-12
4G Base Station Revenues by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-13
4G Femtocell
Subscribers
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-14
4G Femtocell Subscribers by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-15
4G Femtocell
Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 1-16
4G Femtocell
Subscriber Revenues by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-17
4G Femtocell
Device Shipments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-18
4G Femtocell Device Shipments by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 1-19
4G Femtocell
Device Shipment Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 1-20
4G Femtocell
Device Shipment Revenues by Technology
World Market 2014
Table 3-1
LTE Subscribers
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-2
LTE Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-3
LTE Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-4
LTE Device Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-5
LTE Base Station Deployments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-6
LTE Base Station Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-7
LTE Femtocell Subscribers
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-8
LTE Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-9
LTE Femtocell Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 3-10
LTE Femtocell Device Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-1
CDMA Subscribers (IS-95, CDMA2000, and EV-DO all Revisions)
World Market 2007-2014
Table 4-2
CDMA Device Shipments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 4-3
EV-DO Subscribers (All Revisions)
World Market 2007-2014
Table 4-4
EV-DO Device Shipments (All Revisions)
World Market 2007-2014
Table 4-5
UMB Subscribers
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-6
UMB Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-7
UMB Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-8
UMB Device Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-9
UMB Base Station Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-10
UMB Base Station Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-11
UMB Femtocell Subscribers
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-12
UMB Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-13
UMB Femtocell Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 4-14
UMB Femtocell Device Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-1
802.20 Subscribers
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-2
802.20 Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-3
802.20 Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-4
802.20 Device Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-5
802.20 Base Station Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-6
802.20 Base Station Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-7
802.20 Femtocell Subscribers
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-8
802.20 Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-9
802.20 Femtocell Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 5-10
802.20 Femtocell Device Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-1
WCDMA Subscribers
World Market 2007-2014
Table 6-2
WCDMA Device Shipments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 6-3
HSPA+ Subscribers
World Market 2009-2014
Table 6-4
HSPA+ Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-5
HSPA+ Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-6
HSPA+ Device Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-7
HSPA+ Base Station Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-8
HSPA+ Base Station Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-9
HSPA+ MIMO Enabled Base Station
Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-10
HSPA+ Femtocell
Subscribers
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-11
HSPA+ Femtocell
Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-12
HSPA+ Femtocell
Device Shipments
World Market 2008-2014
Table 6-13
HSPA+ Femtocell Device
Revenues
World Market 2008-2014
Table 7-1
WiMAX Subscribers
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-2
WiMAX
Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-3
WiMAX
Device Shipments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-4
WiMAX
Device Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-5
WiMAX Wave 2 Device
Shipments and Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-6
WiMAX
Base Station
Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-7
WiMAX
Base Station
Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-8
WiMAX
Femtocell
Subscribers
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-9
WiMAX
Femtocell
Subscriber Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-10
WiMAX
Femtocell
Shipments
World Market 2007-2014
Table 7-11
WiMAX
Femtocell
Shipment Revenues
World Market 2007-2014
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