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Defense in Mexico: A Strategic Reference, 2006
ICON Group International, July 2007, Pages: 110
How to Strategically Evaluate Mexico
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating Mexico is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance to defense are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities (e.g. a Canadian firm may have higher accessibility in Canada than a German firm).
Latent Demand and Accessibility in Mexico
This report provides a detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility for defense in Mexico. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals specific to defense. This topic is discussed in Chapter 2 using work carried out in Mexico on behalf of American firms and authored by the United States government (typically commercial attachés or similar persons in local offices of the U.S. Department of State). I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information. Latent demand only represents half of the picture. Chapter 2 also deals with micro-accessibility for defense in Mexico. I use the term “micro” since the discussion is focused specifically on defense.
Chapter 3 is a stand-alone report covering a proxy trade indicator that I have authored. Often, the amount of trade flowing into and out of a country is a strong indicator of trading partners, trade openness, and related latent demand. Chapter 3 is purely statistical in nature and covers builders’ wood carpentry and joinery. Although international trade for builders’ wood carpentry and joinery is not a direct measure of latent demand for defense, it does provide a proxy indicator of general market conditions with respect to trade flows and trade openness in Mexico in a related category. The methodology for this report is discussed in the introduction of Chapter 3.
Chapter 4 deals with macro-accessibility and covers factors that go beyond defense. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in Mexico:
Openness to Trade in Mexico
Openness to Direct Investment in Mexico
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are covered in Chapter 4, which is a general overview of investment and business conditions in Mexico. Chapter 4 is also presented from the perspective of an American firm, though is equally applicable to most firms entering Mexico. This chapter is also authored by local offices of the U.S. government, as is Chapter 2. Likewise, I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework mentioned earlier.
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