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Executive Report on Strategies in South Africa
ICON Group International, June 2007, Pages: 391
How to Strategically Evaluate South Africa
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating South Africa is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
Relative Accessibility
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities.
Latent Demand and Accessibility in South Africa
This report provides an extremely detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility in South Africa. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals. But, latent demand only represents half of the picture. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks.
Chapter 2 deals with macro-accessibility. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in South Africa:
Openness to Trade in South Africa
Openness to Direct Investment in South Africa
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are also covered in Chapter 2, which is presented from the perspective of an American firm, though it is equally applicable to most firms entering South Africa. This chapter has been authored by local offices of the U.S. Government. I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework.
In Chapter 3, I summarize the economic potential for South Africa over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories, and products. The goal of this chapter is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or latent demand, represented by South Africa when defined as an area of dominant influence. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this chapter, I report the allocation for each category for South Africa as an area of dominant influence in Africa and, potentially, the world.
The report concludes with trade indicators for South Africa. Often, the amount of trade flowing into and out of a country is a strong indicator of trading partners, trade openness, and related latent demand. Trade indicators are purely statistical in nature. Although international trade is not a direct measure of latent demand, it does provide an indicator of general market conditions with respect to trade flows and trade openness in South Africa.
As a whole, this report presents a strategic assessment of South Africa by considering an extremely broad set of factors affecting both latent demand and accessibility, as outlined in the following chapters.
MACRO-ACCESSIBILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA
Economic Fundamentals and Dynamics
South Africa enjoys easy access to other markets in Africa, has sophisticated financial institutions and capital markets, a good communication infrastructure, lower labor costs than western industrialized countries and inexpensive electrical power and raw materials. Since 1994, when the first democratically elected government came into power, South Africa has developed into a politically stable country with a more open and outwardly oriented economy.
The South African Government (SAG) also still faces many serious challenges, which it has been steadily addressing, some with more success than others, however. These include: the still huge income inequality between different race groups, ever-increasing crime, high unemployment (around one third of the labor force is unemployed), poor quality schools, skills shortages, inadequate social services, HIV/AIDS, poverty and corruption, and insufficient economic growth.
Regional Role
South Africa has, by far, the largest economy in the region and on the African continent. South Africa’s geographic position offers access to markets, not only throughout Africa, but also throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Strong linkages between the domestic and regional economy guide South Africa’s interests and objectives in the Southern African region. As the market for a large proportion of South Africa’s high value-added exports, the growth of domestic industries is inextricably linked to the growth of the region’s economies. As a member state of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), South Africa plays an important role in developing regional trade and cooperation. It also benefits from the SADC Free Trade Agreement that came into operation in September 2000. (SADC consists of 14 countries with a total population of approximately 180 million). However, South Africa’s reputation as an emerging market also suffers from its proximity to the instability and conflicts that have appeared in neighboring countries.
Regional stability and investment growth are priorities for the government. South Africa plays a leading role in the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). NEPAD is a comprehensive plan for Africa’s development and aims to create pre-conditions for sustainable development, enhance economic governance, human resource development, infrastructure provision, diversification of goods and services production, open international trade markets, increase capital flows and realign institutional arrangements. At its core are the concepts of accountability, governance, and economic growth.
South Africa is also playing a leading role in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States. South Africa and its SACU partners (Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho and Namibia) regard the proposed agreement as a significant link in a wider effort to integrate SACU economies into the global economic system to promote development in the region.
Franchising Activities
Franchising is well established in South Africa, but business-format franchising is relatively new (introduced in the 1990’s) and has accelerated growth in this sector for the past decade. The South African government believes that franchising is a powerful tool that can be utilized to develop and nurture budding entrepreneurs, particularly from historically disadvantaged communities.
The Franchise Baseline Census (2002), conducted by consulting firm, Franchising Plus, indicates that there are approximately 393 franchised branded systems, of which 10.3% are international systems. The census estimates that the franchise sector’s total turnover was US$15.6 billion including petroleum, and $9.04 billion, excluding petroleum. This sector is a significant contributor to the country’s total GDP - around 6.8% excluding petroleum.
Traditionally, franchising has been equated by the restaurant/fast food sector. Statistics certainly seems to bear this out. Approximately 16% of the systems are classified as restaurants, with another 16% for takeouts. However, this end of the market is reaching saturation point, and the focus is increasingly shifting towards service-based industries. Good growth prospects include: building retail, automotive, convenience stores, retail and direct marketing, business to business services and health and beauty
Franchising in South Africa does pose some challenges. Firstly, there is a lack of understanding of business format franchising, particularly for new entrepreneurs. In response, the South African Department of Trade and Industry’s division, Namac Trust, has developed a franchise awareness training road show, which they promote all over the country. Further, even though there is financing available through the South African banking institutions, it remains inaccessible for many new franchisors and franchisees, and the exchange rate remains a problem.
U.S. Franchisors need to be aware that the South African marketplace is very complex and fragmented, which emphasizes the need to conduct a thorough feasibility study to determine consumer behavior, staff productivity, language barriers and potential competitors. Many South African banks are increasingly looking at the willingness of international franchisors to assist the local franchisee with the feasibility study as a sign of the franchisor’s level of investment in the local market place.
U.S. Franchisors need to recruit the right master franchisee that understands local market conditions. Many concepts have failed due to the inability to secure the right person, effectively tarnishing franchising image in this country. Some franchisors consider joint ventures with a local partner, whereby both become Master franchise holders for the country. Another good strategy is to set up a pilot store with the local partner before embarking on an expansion of their product. Forming local partnerships will ensure that expert knowledge and skills are passed on, as well as reflecting the U.S. franchisor’s commitment to the South African marketplace - a win-win combination for both sides.
Spatial Development Initiatives (SDIs)
One of South Africa’s key industrial policies remains its commitment to fostering sustainable industrial development in areas where poverty and unemployment are at their highest. This objective is carried out through the Spatial Development Initiatives, which focuses high-level support in areas where socio-economic conditions require concentrated government assistance and where inherent economic potential exists.
The SDI programs focus government attention across the various national, provincial and local government spheres with the goal of ensuring that investments are fast-tracked and that synergies between the various types of investments are maximized. Eleven development initiatives, at varying stages of delivery, have been designated and have already generated around 400 investment projects valued at R83-billion.
The SDI program consists of the following 11 local SDIs and four Industrial Development Zones (IDZs):
SDIs
Maputo Development Corridor
Lubombo SD
Richards Bay SDI, including the Durban and Pietermaritzburg nodes
Wild Coast SDI
Fish River SDI
West Coast Investment Initiative
Platinum SDI
Phalaborwa SDI
Coast 2 Coast Corridor
SEZs
Gauteng Special Economic Zone (SEZ), a second generation SDI based in the province of Gauteng and focusing on high technology manufacturing, IT, telecommunications, food processing and cultural activities.
IDZs
(all based at ports)
Coega deepwater port and duty-free IDZ,
East London IDZ,
Saldanha IDZ,
Richards Bay IDZ.
The Government’s IDZ policy is designed to boost exports and jobs. The Government will put in the infrastructure while the development and the management of zones will be done by the private sector. The first IDZ to be earmarked, and one of the biggest initiatives ever undertaken in South Africa, is situated at Coega, 30 km north of Port Elizabeth in the Eastern Cape. The Coega Development Corporation (CDC) is developing the Coega Industrial Development Zone (IDZ), made up of 12,000 hectares of industrial land as well as a new deepwater port. Although the CDC is a private company, national and provincial governments are the only shareholders.
Investments committed for the Coega Project - both the IDZ and the deepwater port of Ngqura - amount to R800-million for infrastructure developed by the IDZ, R2.4-billion for the port, and R1.8-billion for the upgrade of electrical lines to the Nelson Mandela Metro by power utility Eskom. The Coega IDZ has targeted several industrial sectors for investment, including the metallurgical, automotive, leisure and agricultural sectors.
Infrastructure Development
International Trade Infrastructure
South Africa is endowed with advanced telecommunications, transport and energy provision infrastructure and all modern facilities are available throughout the country: In brief South Africa has:
Five major ports which handle 13,000 vessels and 500 million tons per year of cargo
Lowest industrial electricity rates in the world
9,000 MW surplus generation capacities
Telecommunications development that ranks 23rd in the world.
Highly efficient cellular services provided by three private companies
Cellular roaming services provide nationwide cellular access
13 million cellular (mobile) phone users
3 million people with Internet access
In the context of the developing world, South Africa’s international trade infrastructure ranks as excellent. However, reduced infrastructure spending due to budgetary constraints in the late 1990’s has stressed South Africa’s existing road network and not enough was spend on other infrastructure such as upgrading the ports.
Major shipping lines pass along the South African coastline in the South Atlantic and Indian oceans, through its commercial ports which form by far the largest, best equipped and most efficient network on the African continent. These ports are not only conduits for trade between South Africa and her partners in SADC, but also function as hubs for traffic emanating from, and destined for, Europe, Asia, the Americas and the east and west coasts of Africa. However, there has lately been serious congestion at the ports resulting from delays in carrying out the major upgrades necessary to increase handling capacity and absorb the rapid increase in commercial traffic at the ports.
Through its borders with Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Swaziland and Lesotho, well-developed road and rail links provide the platform and infrastructure for ground transportation deep into sub-Saharan Africa. The South African parastatal transportation company Transnet, is the primary provider of rolling stock and associated transportation services throughout the region. The national railway has 30,600 kilometers of rail track connecting even the smallest hamlets. Spoornet is the largest railroad and heavy haulier in Southern Africa with an annual turnover of R9 billion, generated by the transportation of 180 Mt of freight.
The phenomenal growth in airline traffic since 1994 through the three major international airports in Johannesburg, Durban and Cape Town is due to the rapid growth in trade, tourism and business travel. There are four other international airports that serve the growing eco-tourist and commercial traffic in southern Africa through well-established air-links. Johannesburg International in particular is the most important regional hub with links to all the major centers of the world. In addition there are another 700 smaller airports in South Africa.
The national road system links all the major centers in the country, as well as to neighboring countries. Outside the cities, there are 8, 000 kilometers of tarred and regularly maintained national highway, plus a thousand more kilometers of toll roads. Almost 1,500 kilometers of those routes are dual carriageway, with this number constantly rising.
Infrastructure in Rural Areas
The infrastructure in the rural areas and the former homelands (the geographic ethnic-statehoods created and imposed by the Apartheid government) varies, and most townships (urban and peri-urban residential areas of mostly economic and sub-economic housing inhabited by the Black populace) remain in need of road development and improvement. The South African government continues to look for projects in the framework of its Spatial Development Initiatives Program (SDIs), in urban and rural centers, and in partnership with other countries in the region in order to improve infrastructure.
Black Economic Empowerment (BEE)
Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) is a transformation imperative in South African society, and U.S. businesses entering the market place need to understand its scope and significance.
Since 1994 the South African Government has embarked upon a comprehensive program to provide a legislative framework for the transformation of the economy and has developed specific policy objectives around BEE. Accordingly, Government defines BEE as an integrated and coherent socio-economic process that directly contributes to the economic transformation of South Africa and brings about significant increases in the numbers of black people that manage, own and control the country’s economy, as well as significantly decreases income inequalities. Black persons is a generic term, which includes indigenous Africans, Colored and Indians of South African descent.
BEE is therefore seen as a necessary Government intervention to readdress the past systematic exclusion of the majority of South Africans from full participation in the economy. The defining feature of Apartheid was the use of race to restrict and control access to the economy by black persons. The accumulation process was one of restricted wealth creation and imposed underdevelopment on black communities to ensure they were mainly suppliers of cheap labor. The underdevelopment of black South Africans took the form of a progressive destruction of productive assets, deliberate denial of access to skills and jobs, and the undermining of self-employment and entrepreneurship. In aggregate, these policies effectively restricted and suppressed their participation in a legislatively race-based economy.
To achieve its objectives with respect to BEE, Government is utilizing a number of policy instruments. These include legislation and regulation, preferential procurement, institutional support, financial and other incentive schemes.
Partnerships and Charters
The Government also recognizes that its BEE strategy will not be effective if Government acts alone, without the support of the private sector. Partnerships between the Government and the private sector, including trade unions and community-based organizations, represent a key vehicle for the formulation and implementation of BEE programs at different levels and in different sectors of the economy. Partnerships refer to structured collaboration between Government and the private sector for the sustainable development of BEE.
Government actively seeks the establishment of innovative partnerships with the private sector, built around the specific circumstances of different sectors and enterprises. It is recognized, that the complexity of different sectors and enterprises requires a flexible approach that allows each to determine the form and manner in which it will contribute to BEE. Examples of concluded partnership agreements include the Mining Charter signed between Government and the mining industry, and the Petroleum Charter signed with the petroleum industry.
Political Risks
Economic Relationship with the United States
Since the historic, first multiracial and multiparty elections in 1994, the country has undergone a dramatic transformation from a pariah apartheid state, economically isolated by sanctions, to one with a democratically elected, multiracial government. Democracy was further consolidated with the successful completion of the country’s second national elections in June 1999, which were free and fair and held under much more peaceful circumstances than in 1994. U.S.-South Africa bilateral relations have strengthened, and bilateral trade and investment have increased markedly. In February 1998, the United States suspended debarment of several South African defense-related firms, including ARMSCOR, Denel, and Fuchs, opening the way towards normalization of bilateral defense trade relations. As a result, the Department of State is once again considering requests for licenses for the export of items on the U.S. Munitions List to South Africa.
South Africa is a member of the United Nations, the Commonwealth, the African Union, the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Customs Union, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation. South Africa served as the Chair of the Non-Aligned Movement from September 1998 until February 2003. South Africa chaired the African Union from July 2002 to July 2003.
Politics and the Business Environment
South Africa’s apartheid-era government, while preaching free-market economics, essentially practiced statism. The African National Congress (ANC) favors a market-driven economy - including greater competition. The ANC supports privatization of certain parastatal (government owned) firms. Crime is a major factor that has affected the business climate in South Africa. Although political violence has largely disappeared as a major issue, the occurrence of criminal violence is high. National and provincial governments have unveiled a number of programs aimed at targeting crime, and South Africa is working closely with donor countries to address this problem.
The Political System
The African National Congress (ANC), which originated as an anti-apartheid liberation movement, dominates South African politics at all levels. The ANC maintains an alliance with the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the trade union confederation COSATU. Representatives of the ANC’s alliance partners hold a number of senior positions in the government, but the SACP and COSATU have not succeeded in efforts to replace the ANC’s (and government’s) mainstream macroeconomic policies with more left-leaning policies.
The members of the National Assembly elect the President, who is vested with broad executive powers, including the power to appoint a cabinet. The ANC dominates a national coalition government that also includes cabinet members from the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the New National Party (NNP), and Azania Peoples Organization (AZAPO).
South Africa’s parliament has two chambers:
National Assembly
National Council of Provinces (NCOP)
The 400 seats in the National Assembly are allocated to political parties on the basis of proportional representation.
The 90-member National Council of Provinces (NCOP), which legislates on matters that have an impact on the provinces, consists of six permanent and four rotating delegates elected from each of South Africa’s nine provinces, selected by the provincial legislatures. The parties in the provincial legislature are awarded a number of NCOP seats based on their share of the provincial vote and NCOP members vote as a provincial block. The ANC easily controls the voting majority within the NCOP.
South Africa’s highest judicial courts are the Constitutional Court, which sits in Johannesburg and has the power to invalidate laws and executive actions found to violate the South African Constitution, and the High Court of the Appellate Division, seated in Bloemfontein, which hears and decides appeals from a system of provincial Supreme Courts.
Orientation of the Major Political Parties
Seventeen parties are represented in the National Assembly. By far the largest is the ANC. The party has a predominantly black membership, but all races are represented within the ANC’s party leadership, its NA membership, and in the cabinet. As the ruling party, the ANC is occupied with the critical need to provide adequate employment, education, housing, and health care (including addressing the HIV/AIDS pandemic) to the majority of South Africans whose standard of living remains poor despite the end of Apartheid.
Second in size, the Democratic Alliance (DA) is a largely white, socially liberal but economically conservative party. In the 1999 parliamentary election, the party (then called the Democratic Party) increased its share of the vote to ten-% from less than two-% in 1994. Under the leadership of Tony Leon, the DA has been outspokenly critical of ANC policy.
The third largest party, after the ANC and the DA, is the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), whose support is heavily concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal Province. The IFP made a strong appeal to Zulu ethnic pride prior to the 1994 election, which proved especially effective in rural areas of the province. While slipping from 11% to roughly 9% of the vote nationally in 1999, the IFP still managed to hold sway in KwaZulu-Natal, again sweeping most rural areas of the province. The party’s policies have long favored federalizm as a check on the powers of the central government; its economic policy is generally characterized as free-market oriented.
Marketing Strategies
Distribution Channel Options
Approximately 90% of South Africa’s population is found in areas surrounding the cities of Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth, which represent the country’s major areas of economic activity and consumer markets.
Gauteng
The Gauteng Province stretches from Pretoria, the country’s administrative capital in the North, to Vereeniging in the South, with Johannesburg and the Witwatersrand (the industrial and mining belt) straddling the center. Gauteng is the powerhouse of the South African economy, generating approximately 37% of the country’s GDP, equivalent to 26% of the aggregate GDP of the 14 countries comprising SADC, and 9% of the continent’s GDP. The service sector (including trade, finance, insurance, real estate and business services) is the main contributor to the provinces gross geographic product (GGP), followed by manufacturing.
Johannesburg
The city of Johannesburg, the commercial and financial hub of South Africa, is located in the center of Gauteng. Industries in the Johannesburg area consist of steel, petrochemicals, ICT, manufacturing and the service sectors. As the country’s transportation hub, it is the center for all rail and road connections and has the country’s major international airport. Johannesburg is 456 miles from Durban and 954 miles from Cape Town.
Durban
Bounded by the Indian Ocean to the east, the Durban Metropolitan Area (DMA) is the second largest urban area in South Africa and home of the largest and busiest port on the African continent. The triangle of Durban-Pietermaritzburg-Pinetown is the manufacturing core of Natal, and the region contributes approximately 20% to national manufacturing statistics. Key industries in the metropolitan area include: manufacturing (petrochemicals, textiles, clothing, food processing, and motor components); transport (port and airport); and commerce and services (trade, catering, financial and tourism). Emerging sectors include professional and scientific equipment and nonferrous metals. A number of multinational companies have established manufacturing operations in the region. Companies such as Dow, Rohm and Haas, Bayer, Toyota, Borregaad, Hoechst, T&N, and Tridelta have brought over $ 3.5 billion of foreign direct investment into the area. These companies view the DMA as a major center in their global sourcing operations.
Cape Town
Over the years, the importance of manufacturing and construction has declined as the region’s comparative advantages have moved towards agriculture, transport, commerce and tourism. The Western Cape has excellent road, rail and air links, and Cape Town itself has a well-equipped, modern harbor. Cape Town’s location along the coast as well as the region’s rich farmland, have led to growth in the food processing industry - notably for high value added agri-processing and niche quality food products including beverages, wine, preserved food, fruit, vegetables, ostrich meat. Cape Town is the country’s insurance capital and the home base for most multinational oil companies. Cape Town is also home to the country’s publishing and media industry. The region also enjoys the highest literacy rate in South Africa, and has excellent education and training facilities. Other strong industries include textiles, clothing and footwear (particularly sportswear, protective clothing - often in joint ventures with foreign investors), wood and furniture products, chemicals, plastics, machinery, and technology-based industries. The ICT sector has become one of the success stories of the Western Cape and is becoming increasingly global in focus - particularly for niche and software products in the industry. There is a negligible amount of hardware production, with most being imported from the Far East. Call centers are also becoming a feature of this landscape. Cape Town’s film industry has registered strong growth in recent years with many international advertising agencies and film crews taking advantage of the region’s comparatively cheap location costs, scenic beauty and ideal climate conditions.
One of the highest contributors to the Western Cape GDP is tourism - particularly for eco- and adventure tourism, incentive tourism, health and general tourism, and corporate tourism.
Port Elizabeth
The Port Elizabeth-Uitenhage Metropole holds a population of approximately 1.4 million people, and is fast gaining the reputation as the “best kept secret” in South Africa for investment. The metropolis is home to some of the largest automotive and OEM component manufactures in the country, and the stage has been set for further investment in the region with an entertainment resort earmarked for the city’s beachfront. The Port Elizabeth region is homogenous in its political profile and is thus freeing the economy of any political disruptions and labor stability has improved dramatically thus enhancing the commitment by the labor movement to sustained and viable economic growth. The region is also sufficiently supplied by a large skilled and semi skilled workforce. Crime statistics indicate that the Port Elizabeth region is the safest metropolitan area in Southern Africa.
Port Elizabeth also has a highly efficient port that operates as a national gateway to the eastern seaboard. The national harbor authorities currently rate the Port Elizabeth port as the most efficient in the Southern African sub-continent region. A major commercial development in the region is the Coega IDZ, which was the first of its kind to be established in South Africa. The Coega IDZ spans 12,000 hectares of industrial land and is situated 20 km east of Port Elizabeth. Currently, a new deepwater port is being developed on the Coega River. The IDZ is already well serviced by transportation networks and a skilled labor force. Coega holds great potential for further development and for foreign investors.
For much procurement it is increasingly important to do business directly with provincial authorities. The nine provinces of the Republic of South Africa are: Northern Transvaal, North-West Province, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, Free State, Eastern Cape, Western Cape, and Northern Cape.
Agents and Distributors
South Africa offers foreign suppliers a wide variety of methods to distribute and sell their products. These include using an agent (also known as a Commission Sales Representative or CSR) or distributor; selling through established wholesalers or dealers; selling directly to department stores or other retailers; or establishing a branch or subsidiary with its own sales force. When appointing a South African dist
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