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The 4G Era: Mobile WiMAX and Long Term Evolution: Competitors or Friends - Technology and Markets Assessment
PracTel Inc., May 2008
This report researches IEEE 802.16e and LTE 4G technologies and markets. Early prognosis that 4G will start commercialize not before 2010 are now reconsidered, and several 4G technological ingredients have been already introduced either on a commercial or trial basis. 4G characteristics include:
- Wireless data, voice and video transmission
- Packet-centric environment
- Multimedia environment
- At least several Mb/s rate of transmission (may be asymmetrical) in the mobile environment
- Up to 1 Gb/s rate of transmission in the stationary environment
- Seamless cell transmission, including in-building and outdoor communications with various technologies.
The 802.16e and LTE wireless MAN technologies have several features that allow characterizing them belonging to the 4G family.
The report goal was a detailed analysis of Mobile WiMAX and LTE technological and marketing specifics. The report consists of six major sections. In section I, we provide general considerations and introduction to the subject. Section II addresses issues connected with a timely transition from the 3G era to 4G era. Section III is dedicated to the analysis of 802.16e technology and markets.
It includes:
-Specifics of 802.16d
-Major enhancements for 802.16e
-802.16e standards, including drafts (such as 802.16m)
-802.16e certification process
-The analysis of the 802.16e networks subscribers’ base
-The analysis of the 802.16e service providers’ revenue
-The analysis of the 802.16e equipment manufacturers’ sales revenue
-The analysis of the 802.16e equipment vendors’ portfolio (more than fifty vendors).
Section IV is dedicated to the analysis of LTE specifics. It includes:
-The analysis of the 3GPP activity
-The analysis of the LTE standardization process
-The analysis of the LTE technological features
-The analysis of the industry plans to support LTE-based services and equipment manufacturing
-The analysis of the LTE addressable market.
Section V is a brief comparison 4G technologies, including Mobile WiMAX and LTE. Note that our marketing analysis reflected some uncertainty in the industry directions due to multiple candidates (with similar characteristics) for the 4G MAN family of technologies. Section VI is conclusions.
Major report’s findings are:
-The 802.16e technology is in a more “mature” state than many competing technologies
-This technology is supported by major standard organizations, such as the IEEE and ITU
-These organizations have already approved some 802.16e standards and are working on their enhancements (802.16m and other)
-The technology created a strong industrial basis. Manufacturers include chip and platform vendors; this report analyzes portfolios of more than fifty such vendors
-The 802.16e market geography shows that the North America and Asian (Korea and Taiwan, in particular) regions are the most advanced in the technology development and network deployments
-Many 802.16e products have been already certified by the Mobile WIMAX Forum
-Multiple 802.16e-based networks exist around the globe. All major vendors are involved in such networks deployments and trials
-Multiple applications, such as Public Safety Communications, Intelligent Transportation System, High-speed Internet and other are helping to create a multi-billion 802.16e market
-All factors above allow making a conclusion that the Mobil WiMAX is a promising 4G candidate. It is too early to make a prediction regarding 4G roads and turns, but this report shows a value of 802.16e, and based on the existing phase of high-speed wireless MAN technologies development projects a bright future for Mobile WiMAX.
-The recent increase of mobile data usage and emergence of new applications such as MMOG (Multimedia Online Gaming), mobile TV, Web 2.0, streaming contents have motivated the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) to work on the Long Term Evolution. LTE is the latest standard in the mobile network technology tree that previously realized the GSM/EDGE and UMTS/HSxPA network technologies that now account for over 85% of all mobile subscribers. LTE will ensure 3GPP’s competitive edge over other cellular technologies. LTE, whose radio access is called Evolved UMTS Terrestrial Radio Access Network (E-UTRAN), is expected to substantially improve end-user throughputs, sector capacity and reduce user plane latency, bringing significantly improved user experience with full mobility. With IP as the protocol of choice for carrying all types of traffic, LTE is scheduled to provide support for IP-based traffic with end-to-end QoS. Voice traffic will be supported mainly as VoIP, enabling better integration with other multimedia services. Initial deployments of LTE are expected by 2010 and commercial availability on a larger scale 1-2 years later.
-It is fair to compare LTE with 802.16m. Those two technologies have the same marketing span, are very close in features, and only near future will prove viability one technology against the other. In our opinion, both technologies will find prosperous markets, and will evolve independently as well as complimentarily (based on SDR platforms).
Target Audience
This report provides IEEE 802.16e and LTE technologies and markets analysis and assessments that are useful for service providers, vendors, network operators and managers, Enterprise IT staff, investors and end users seeking to gain a deeper understanding of 802.16e and LTE opportunities and barriers.
For systems vendors, integrators and others, the report provides an analysis and assessment of competing products currently available as well as an estimation of the overall opportunities in the coming years. The end users can gain a more thorough understanding of product’s market and capabilities as well as the economics of using 4G technologies to improve cost efficienc
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