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2008 Identity Fraud Forecast: Fraud Techniques will Evolve in Tandem with Industry Defenses
Javelin Strategy & Research, May 2008, Pages: 20
Right on the heels of the recently released 2008 Identity Fraud Survey Report, the 2008 Javelin Identity Fraud Forecast predicts how identity fraud trends will change over the next five years, projecting overall measures of impact, fraud types, and targeted channels of misuse through 2013. Leveraging longitudinal consumer data, based on a combined total of over 19,000 respondents surveyed over the past four years, the forecast builds upon the nation’s most comprehensive, nationally representative study of identity fraud.
Primary Questions
-How many consumers will become victims of identity fraud through 2013, and how will incidence rates change over the next five years?
-How will fraud average amounts, consumer costs, and resolution hours vary from 2008 to 2013?
-Which channels will be increasingly targeted by fraudsters, and how must financial institutions plan defenses accordingly?
-What future trends can be expected for existing card fraud, specifically credit and debit?
This forecast was based on five-year longitudinal identity-fraud victim data, collected in September through November, in each of the years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. Please take note that years referenced in this report refer to the year of data collection, not the year the data was originally published. For example: the data included in the 2008 Identity Fraud Survey Report (Published Feb, 2008) was collected in between September and November, 2007 and is referred to in this report as the year 2007. The survey is conducted annually using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing
(CATI) via Random-Digit-Dialing (RDD). The total number of respondents was 5,075 in 2007; 5,006 in 2006; 5,003 in 2005; 5,004 in 2004; and 4,000 in 2003.
The survey targeted respondents based on representative proportions of gender, age, and income as compared to all US adult consumers. Secondary data from public sources such as the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics were used in part of the projections.
For questions answered by all respondents, the maximum margin of sampling error is +/- 1.4% at the 95% confidence level. For questions answered by all 445 identity-fraud victims, the maximum margin of sampling error is +/- 4.7% at the 95% confidence level. For questions answered by a proportion of all identity-fraud victims, the maximum margin of sampling error varies and is greater than +/- 4.7% at the 95% confidence level.
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