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Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Algeria
Datamonitor, April 2008, Pages: 25
OUR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitors MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in the EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Algerias gas and power markets are heavily government dominated, significantly curtailing options for new entrants 7
Algeria has a one company dominated power market which serves to limit its total score 7
Like the power market, Algerias gas sector is curtailed by monopolistic control 7
Power MCI: Algeria has a one company driven market and hence the overall scenario is not very viable for new competitors 9
The market framework scores are expected to improve during the forecast period as we expect the reform process to reach a more developed stage by 2010. 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 2/10 2010: 5/10] 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 2/10 2010: 4/10] 10
Algerias Supplier Push metrics will remain low whilst Sonelgaz maintains control 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 3.5/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 0/10 2010: 2/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 10
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower range of the scale 11
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 11
Consumer Representation [2008: 2/10 2010: 2/10] 11
Propensity to Switch [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 11
Gas MCI: Like the power market, Algerias gas sector is curtailed by monopolistic control 12
Algerias gas market framework metrics score better than those currently prevailing in the power market 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 4/10 2010: 6/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 4.5/10 2010: 6/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 13
Algerias gas supplier push metrics are curtailed by the role of SONATRACH 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 1/10 2010: 1/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 13
Weak customer pull metrics reflect the concentrated nature of Algerias gas market 13
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 3/10 2010: 4/10] 13
Consumer Representation [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 14
Outlook: Commercial opportunities exist, though overcoming the threat posed by existing players is a significant challenge 15
Monopolies in both the power and gas sector leads to low MCI scores 15
Power scores 15
Gas scores 15
The dominance and formidable challenge represented by likes of Sonelgaz and Sonatrach create few opportunities in the Algerian energy sector away from the upstream 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 16
Sonatrachs dominance is the biggest threat for any new gas market entrant. 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 16
MCI Scores 17
APPENDIX 20
Definitions 20
Ask the analyst 25
List of Tables
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Algeria 2008-10 17
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 18
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 19
List of Figures
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Algeria 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Algeria 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Algeria 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 20
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 21
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 21
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 23
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 23
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 24
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 24
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