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Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Croatia
Datamonitor, April 2008, Pages: 24
OUR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitors MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 2
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Both Croatias gas and power markets have only very minor levels of competitive intensity 7
Croatias power metrics remain modest over the forecast period 7
Croatias gas market competitive intensity leads that of other markets in the region at similar stages of economic development 7
Power MCI: Both Croatias Supplier Push & Customer Pull metrics show particular weakness 9
Market framework factors show little growth over the forecast period 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 2/10 2010: 4/10] 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 2.5/10 2010: 3/10] 10
All the Supplier Push metrics remain at a low level even by the end of the forecast period 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 0/10 2010: 2/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 0/10 2010: 2.5/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0.5/10] 10
A slower pace of market opening curtails the Customer Pull metrics 10
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 10
Consumer Representation [2008: 0/10 2010: 2/10] 11
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1/10 2010: 3/10] 11
Gas MCI: Croatias gas score grows over a number of metrics though the multiplicative score remains at zero 12
Full market opening later in 2008 will help give momentum to the 2010 Market Framework metrics 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 6/10 2010: 8/10] 12
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 4/10 2010: 6/10] 13
The absence of a traded market combined with the lack of wholesale and retail fragmentation significantly constrain the Supplier Push metrics 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 2/10 2010: 3.5/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 2/10 2010: 4/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 13
Customer Pull metrics will be given renewed impetus later in 2008 when the market becomes fully open 13
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 2/10 2010: 4.5/10] 13
Consumer Representation [2008: 1/10 2010: 3/10] 13
Propensity to Switch [2008: 2/10 2010: 5/10] 14
Outlook: A lack of competitive intensity creates very few tangible commercial opportunities for new entrants 14
Despite improvements in all the metrics over the forecast period, both the gas and power multiplicative scores remain at zero 14
Power scores 14
Gas scores 15
Short term market entry options in the retail arena particularly remain limited 15
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 15
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 15
The pro-competition regulator on its own will be insufficient to overcome the other factors holding back gas market competitive intensity 15
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 15
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 15
MCI Scores 16
APPENDIX 19
Definitions 19
Ask the analyst 24
List of Tables
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 2008-10 16
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 17
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 18
List of Figures
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 14
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 19
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 20
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 20
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 21
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 21
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 22
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 22
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 23
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 23
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