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Forecast Insight: Osteoarthritis
Datamonitor, May 2008, Pages: 71
Introduction
With several recent non-approvable decisions in the osteoarthritis market since 2006, Datamonitor have updated its forecast to account for the effect on the market. Datamonitor have revised the market outlook over the next 10 years using the latest IMS data. Datamonitor expect the market to grow steadily, with a CAGR from 2007 to 2017 of 3.2%, to reach sales of nearly $5.5 billion in 2017.
Scope
This report gives a strategic analysis of the likely impact that recent events will have on the osteoarthritis market Includes osteoarthritis-specific and total brand sales forecasts for the key brands in the seven major markets to 2017 This report provides a global market snapshot by including osteoarthritis-specific sales analysis for leading brands outside the seven major markets This report includes updated forecasts of nearly 130 currently marketed products and reassesses pipeline product launch dates and sales forecasts
Highlights
After three years of decline, market sales grew by 0.8% (2006-07) to reach $4 billion in the 7MM in 2007. Driving growth was an increase in sales of COX-2, non-narcotic analgesic and corticosteroid classes. Market sales will reach $5.5 billion by 2017 (3.2% CAGR) boosted by pipeline product launches, particularly NicOxs naproxcinod. Lessened side effect concern and clever marketing contributed to the rebound in Celebrex sales. Also contributing to Celebrexs reprise was the Japanese launch in June 2007. Celebrex will remain the market leading brand for osteoarthritis treatment until patent expiry in 2014, when more than 70% first year generic erosion is forecast. Arcoxia (etoricoxib) and Prexige (lumiracoxib) will not launch in the US as previously predicted. The COX-2 pipeline has collapsed with little sign of future promise. This counters the rise in Celebrex and Arcoxia sales, which show that opportunities exist, but at present regulatory requirement generates a large barrier to entry.
Reasons to Purchase
Quantify the current size of the seven major markets and the trends in the rest of the world Understand when late-stage pipeline products will launch and what impact this will have on the market during the forecast period 2007 to 2017 Assess the impact of events, such as patent expiries, on the osteoarthritis-specific sales of key brand name products.
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