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Polish Automotive Market: Passenger Cars, Suppliers and Aftermarket 2007-2010
Globis GmbH, April 2008, Pages: 85
This Globis report, Polish Automotive Market: Passenger Cars, Suppliers and Aftermarket 2007-2010, provides a comprehensive analysis of the Polish automotive market. Poland is, with a population of almost 40 million, the largest market in Central and Eastern Europe (“CEE”). With a GDP per capita slightly over 10.000 USD in 2007, GDP growth rates between 5% and 6%, and average wages at 700 EUR / 950 USD, Poland is also a relatively prosperous market in CEE.
Poland’s car penetration is still much lower than in Western European markets and also some other CEE markets like Bulgaria are better positioned in terms of car penetration. In terms of car park however, Poland is leading the CEE countries. The car park, however, is relatively old.
Since Poland became a member of the EU in 2004, the Polish car market has been flooded with imports of used cars. These imports reached almost 1 million in 2007, mainly consisting of relatively old and hence very cheap cars.
In the course of this development, the new car market broke down to less than 50% of sales of 1999. It is only since 2007, that the new car market rebounds. We predict growth of about 7% for the years until 2010. Nevertheless, the Polish new car market is and will remain the largest in CEE and the third largest of all former communist countries (CEE and CIS together), only surpassed by Russia and Ukraine. We strongly expect the new cars market to increase further, while imports of used cars will decrease over the next years.
Dealerships had to cope with reducing sales of new cars and most of them are earning additional income with a lively trade in second-hand cars. There is still substantial room for growth of dealership-networks of the OEMs.
Financing of cars is well established, with loan financing being the preferred method by private individuals and leasing being the preferred method by corporate buyers. Financing used car purchase is also widespread, which supports the short holding cycle of Polish car owners.
Poland has no own passenger car brand. FSO was its last independent brand and is now owned by ZAZ, an Ukrainian car maker, using FSO as a production base for the Urkainian markets. FSO is manufacturing Daewoo-based models. Apart from FSO Fiat, Opel and VW are producing cars in Poland. Other OEMs are manufacturing components with engines becoming a specialty of the Polish automotive market. OEMs and other suppliers use Poland as a low-cost manufacturing base for the European market. They rarely produce for the Polish market itself. The production of cars will likely exceed 1 mio. units in 2010. Even though some OEM are considering new projects or the expansion of existing ones in Poland, the wage increase of recent years and the shortage of qualified personnel are becoming serious limitations to further growth of the industry.
Given the development of production projects, the components market will grow by 14% annually over the next years to 2010. Most of that market potential is captive through existing suppliers to the OEM.
The aftermarket is growing by over 5% over the next years to 2010. The aftermarket is one of the most attractive sectors of the Polish automotive industry over the next years. With further additions to the park, whose average age is decreasing and with more demanding consumers, better and more frequent service and better parts are needed.
There are numerous parts manufacturers present in Poland, but only few of them are still in Polish hands. As with OEMs, parts manufacturers are mostly targeting export markets and rarely cater the local aftermarket.
The Polish distribution system for spare parts is dominated by about 10 larger importers and distributors. However, there are many smaller importers active as well. It is likely, that further consolidation will reduce the number of players. For foreign parts manufacturers, the main challenge is access to service stations, to spare part shops and eventually to the end customers.
In total, the Polish market for passenger car vehicles and the Polish aftermarket are very attractive markets. For companies active internationally, a strong presence in Poland is a must. The main challenge for OEMs operating in Poland is the competition through used car markets. Convenient financing options and an aggressive sales network with good coverage are the key to success. The main challenge for parts manufacturers is to find and manage the right sales channels to ultimatively reach consumers.
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