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China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2008
Business Monitor International, May 2008, Pages: 99
The China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chinas pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
China’s US$34bn pharmaceutical market is the most attractive in BMI’s universe, primarily because of its double-digit growth rate. Over the next 12 months, we are forecasting highly impressive 20% growth, which will taper off over the next five years to reach a still very healthy 15% year-on-year (y-o-y) figure.
By 2012, we are expecting sales of pharmaceuticals - patented medicines, generic drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines - in China to reach US$74.9bn.
In Q208 BMI substantially overhauled its historical data and forecasts for Chinas trade in pharmaceuticals after confirmed 2007 figures and commentary were released by Chinese Customs Statistics and the China Chamber of Commerce. In 2007, the value of exports increased by 28.2% to US$11.69bn, while imports rose by 32.3% to US$9.37bn, resulting in a positive trade balance of US$5.62bn. Over the next five years, we are expecting both indicators to continue their upward trajectory as internal consumption of foreign medicine increases and demand for Chinese-made drugs grows abroad.
In 2012, we expect the value of exports and imports to reach US$39.66bn and US$30.33bn, respectively. Conducting clinical trials in China is becoming increasingly popular. However, taking a regional perspective reveals that India is the premier location in Asia Pacific. Demonstrating commitment to its investment, leading US clinical research organisation (CRO) Quintiles Transnational announced in January 2008 that it was expanding its Global Central Laboratories and Clinical Development Services (CDS) units in Beijing to accommodate growing business in China.
In January 2008, BMI upgraded its impression of Chinas domestic R&D sector after it was announced that a locally-developed vaccine against Helicobacter pylori will be commercialised. The vaccine follows the introduction of the worlds first gene therapy by Hubei-based Benda Pharmaceuticals and precedes a possible pandemic-preventing bird flu vaccine from Sinovac Biotech.
In Q108 it was revealed that the number of people suffering ischaemic (blood clot) strokes in China has increased in line with national wealth, according to results from a long-term epidemiological study published in the journal Stroke. However, fewer people are dying from their first stroke, resulting in increased demand for both supportive care and pharmaceuticals to prevent recurrence of the condition. BMI expects these trends to continue in the medium term as the countrys economy matures and population ages.
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