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Peru Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2008
Business Monitor International, May 2008, Pages: 52
The Peru Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Perus pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Peru’s pharmaceutical market has experienced strong growth over the past few years. From US$538mn in 2004, the market was estimated to have reached US$771mn by 2007. Although we expect the white hot growth to cool somewhat over the forecast period, mirroring a slowdown in GDP, drug expenditure should still grow by 8.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the forecast period to reach US$1154mn by 2012.
The passing of the US-Peru Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in late 2007 has led us to upgrade our forecast for the drug market. Our expectations had previously been held down by concern that Peru was failing to take a strong stance on copy drugs that lack proof of bioequivalence, commonly known as similares. Despite watered-down intellectual property (IP) provisions when compared with previous US FTAs, we believe the agreement should sustain pharmaceutical market growth over the forecast period.
The squeeze on similares should benefit the generics market, with patients gradually switched to more expensive true generics. Meanwhile, the generics market received a further boost with the announcement that, from April 2008, the Ministry of Health would introduce a system of fines for doctors that repeatedly fail to offer generic alternatives to patients. BMI expects the generics market to grow from 6.5% of the pharmaceutical market in 2007 to account for around 10% of the market by 2012 in value terms.
The over-the-counter (OTC) market makes up almost a quarter of the drug market. Poverty means that much of the population are unable to afford doctors’ consultation fees and resort to OTCs for treatment. Rising personal wealth should boost OTC spending while being offset to some extent by the increased affordability of doctors’ fees.
In BMI’s adjusted Business Environment Ratings Peru continues to score poorly as a consequence of its small market and low per capita spending. In the America’s rankings, Peru remains at the bottom of the table, one point behind Venezuela. Our upgraded growth forecast and improving regulatory environment increases the chances of Peru moving up the table in future quarters.
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