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WiMAX Explosion
Boschulte Schnee Group, July 2007, Pages: 266
WIMAX – CATALYST FOR INDUSTRY DISRUPTION WiMAX is a trigger, a catalyst for enormous potential change in telecom, including the worlds of wireless, telcos, cable, media and the Internet.
These changes, which go far beyond the market share that WiMAX will directly capture, will emanate from the U.S. market to the rest of the world.
In the U.S. these changes can challenge and may even threaten all entrenched communications companies – even ones as large as AT&T, Verizon and Comcast – legacy operators of all types, both fixed and wireless.
The impact of WiMAX rests on: 1) the timing of its arrival and 2) its interaction with several other powerful factors impinging on the future of communications and media.
There are two basic views of how significant WiMAX can be, one a more narrow perspective, the other a far broader based one. Whether WiMAX can get to the broader based impact depends on how skillfully it is marketed and on its interaction with these other major factors. WiMAX is like an accelerator, a launch system for change and eventual industry overhaul and restructuring.
To put the U.S. telecom and related industries in perspective (some of which is applicable to other advanced markets to some extent), the industry never completed the logical restructuring that began with the massive upheaval of the late '90s and 2000-2002 period. This upheaval led to hyper consolidation and formation of mega businesses – AT&T, Verizon, Comcast – that are going through a Cinderella period in which, with no direct challenger – YET – they are enjoying ascendancy and profits.
What does WiMAX add that is very important to the future? WiMAX provides Post- Convergence networking and advanced Broadband – vital pieces in transforming telecommunications.
Its ultimate importance will depend on its ability to act in conjunction with the other massive forces pressing against these legacy telecom giants. BSG believes that three of these forces will be particularly decisive.
A. The Changing Device World – which demands that value migrate from networks to devices and that is being guided by the world-class device leader, Apple. WiMAX – The BSG Business Case 2
B. The Imperatives of the IT/Internet Industry – which must fight through a war to deter legacy telecom (wireless-telco-cable), which is trying to tax, slow down and impede the wild proliferation of applications and content vital to IT/Internet's future. This charge is led by Google, Intel, Yahoo, eBay (Skype), with Microsoft laboring to catch up.
C. Consumer Electronics Mass Retailing – which is where telecom will inevitably wind up being marketed, but which requires: a simple, complete, uniform and universal type of product set – that WiMAX can begin to provide and that legacy companies cannot.
The trajectory that WiMAX takes is vitally dependent on its success in the U.S. market, which will indicate the extent of its overall potential. While many smaller WiMAX vendors may be concerned about the initial U.S.-centric nature of WiMAX, it is not a negative issue for them. The rest of the world, as we show in this study (see Chapter 9), will develop WiMAX in a more piecemeal manner allowing them the opportunity to participate and gain business. And the rest of the world will benefit from the advances in WiMAX derived from the U.S., where the WiMAX ecosystem will be built and honed.
How far WiMAX can go to fulfill its potential is already in the balance as U.S. leaders, Sprint and Clearwire, descend on the market and the U.S. prepares for the 2008 industry-changing 700 MHz auction.
In this study, culminating a multi-month project undertaken by leading industry executive and technologist Al Boschulte (former CEO of NYNEX Mobile, executive, consultant and builder of telecommunications companies worldwide) and Victor Schnee, highly acclaimed for his telecom forecasting record – BSG defines not only the key issues, but the specific critical steps WiMAX must take to put itself in position to capitalize on this opportunity.
The study addresses and articulates the opportunity – and the threat – that must be confronted by every carrier, would-be competitor, equipment provider, component maker, media, content and applications company: all of the vast array of wireless, telecom, cable/satellite, IT/Internet and media companies whose futures are vitally involved.
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