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WiMAX Explosion
Boschulte Schnee Group, July 2007, Pages: 266
- OVERVIEW
- WiMAX – Catalyst For Industry Disruption
- 'Now' Communications – WiMAX And the Beginning of Modern Communications
- WiMAX – The Key Is Addressing Business Issues
- Where WiMAX Fits Into This Era Of Major Changes
- Implications For the Industry Leaders
- This Is The Beginning of The Process
Chapter 1 – The WiMAX Explosion!
- Defining 'The WiMAX Explosion!'
- WiMAX – The Window of Opportunity: Significant Findings
- Business Strategies Are The Critical Driver
- Why Business Models Are Such An Issue For WiMAX
- The Primary Importance of The US Market – Sprint and Clearwire
- Broadband and Convergence – Issues For Traditional Wireless and Wired Worlds
- Broadband Growth Outlook
- The Big Picture – 7 Powerful Global Trends Helping WiMAX
- WiMAX and Telecom Goals of Less Developed Countries
- WiMAX and The Interests of the IT/Internet Industry
- WiMAX Positioning – Key Factors, Recent Developments, Pluses and Minuses
- Resolving the Confusion About WiMAX Business Strategy
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – Short Term Revolution vs Long Term Evolution
Chapter 2 - WiMAX – Dissecting The Technology Issues
- Broadband Technologies and Convergence
- Wireless Broadband Technologies
- Why WiMAX
- Background: RAN Standards Progression
- 3 Keys To Success For New Standards
- Radio Access Technology Evolution
- OFDMA and MIMO
- Technology Evolution in the Marketplace: The WiMAX Advantage
- WiMAX Versus Other Wireless Standards, Pros and Cons
- Overview: Meaningful Criteria For Carriers
- WiMAX Handhelds and Ecosystem
- WiMAX and Video – IPTV/WebTV
- Summary of 'Why WiMAX'
- Wired Broadband Technologies
- Wired Carriers' Potential Use of Wireless
- Summary of Wireless and Broadband – Technology Perspective
- Convergence Technologies
- How Wireless Broadband Erodes Wired Markets Faster Than Expected
- Growth of Wireless BB Versus Growth of Wireless Voice
Chapter 3 - Crucial Business Model Issue – Matching WiMAX To The Market
- Capitalizing On Broadband And Convergence
- 'Magnet' Applications of Traditional Carriers – Broadband Is Not One of Them
- Broadband The New 'Magnet' Application
- And So We Arrive At Convergence
- Convergence and Revenue Models
- Will WiMAX Business Models Be Matched To the Market Opportunity?
- WiMAX – Need For New Business Model Thinking
- 'Mobile Internet' – Only Part of the Potential
- Redefining Wireline Communications – Rather Than DSL Replacement
- Three Business Approaches Analyzed: 1) 'Mobile Internet,' 2) 'DSL Replacement,'
- 3) 'Now Communications'
- Overview of 3 Approaches
- 'Mobile Internet' Internet Approach
- DSL Replacement
- Now Communication
- Models: Four Models of Advanced Country WiMAX
- The IT/Internet Influence on the Vendor Business Model For WiMAX
- Business Model – Vendor View
Chapter 4 – WiMAX Vendor Value Chain
- Vendor Value Chain Overview
- Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)
- Components
- Intel
- Emerging Component Suppliers
- Qualcomm's Developing WiMAX Strategies
- TI & Others
- Infrastructure
- Major Global Vendors
- Smaller Vendors
- Infrastructure: Market Share Outlook and Forecast, 2006-2010
- Major Vendor Assessments
- Nokia Siemens
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Motorola
- Samsung
- Nortel
- Fujitsu
- Huawei and ZTE
- What about Ericsson?
- Early Entrants: Assessments
- Navini
- Aperto
- Airspan
- Alvarion
- Non Standard Shooting Stars – Flarion (Qualcomm), IP Wireless (NextWave)
- Handhelds
- Overview of WiMAX Handhelds
- Samsung
- Motorola and Nokia
- Handset Pricing
Chapter 5 – Clearwire – Why It Is Well-Positioned
- Introduction
- Key Aspects of Clearwire
- Clearing Up Confusion About Clearwire
- Pre-WiMAX Results
- Clearwire's Main Growth Challenge
- Other Issues For Clearwire
Chapter 6 – The Challenging Outlook For Sprint Nextel
- Sprint's Path to Becoming a WiMAX Leader
- Sprint's BB Wireless Background
- Sprint WiMAX Plans
- Sprint's Performance Issues – Putting WiMAX in Perspective
- Sprint's Uncertainties Regarding WiMAX
- Sprint WiMAX Outlook
Chapter 7 – Competitive Dynamics – The Future of US Telecom Markets
- The Entrenched Communications Structure Is Ripe To Be Jolted
- Positioning of Key Competitors – Carriers
- Wireline Segment
- Wireless Segment
- Satellite Broadcasters (DBS)
- Other WiMAX Entrants
- NextWave
- Horizon Wi-Com LLC
- Mobile Satellite Ventures
- Other Mobile Satellite Players
- Aloha Partners
- Other WiMAX Companies – Towerstream, Xanadoo (Pegasus), ValTech,
- Moline Dispatch
- Competitive Dynamics – Where WiMAX Fits In
- WiMAX and the 700 MHz Auction
- Attractiveness of 700 MHz Spectrum
- The Impending Auction – FCC Threatens To Curb Competition
- 700 Auction – Significance For WiMAX; Outlook
- Scenarios – WiMAX As a Catalyst For Industry Restructuring
- 1 Wireline – Redefining Wireline – driven by national WiMAX carriers
- 2 Wireline – Adoption by Independent Telcos
- 3 Wireline – The RBOCs
- 4 Wireless – The RBOCs
- 5 Satellite Broadcasters (DBS)
- 6 Cable (Comcast and the Sprint Possibilities)
- 7 IT/Internet – Intel, Google and others
Chapter 8 – WiMAX Business Models – 4 Cases
- Introduction: Five Cases Examine
- Summary of Model Results – Three National Rollout Strategies
- Conclusions About National Rollout Models
- Summary of Model Assumptions
- Investment Assumptions
- Optimization
- Operating Expense Assumptions
- COS
- SG&A
- Depreciation
- Penetration Rates
- Revenue Assumptions
- Model #1 – Medium Sized – Urban Suburban 500K-1M POPs
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- Model #2 – DSL Replacement-based US National Rollout
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- Model #3 – Mobile Internet US National Rollout
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- Model #4 – Now Communications US National Rollout
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- National Rollout Model Comparisons
- Assessing the Models
Chapter 9 – Global WiMAX Opportunities
- Overview
- Impact Of US WiMAX On Rest of World
- Examples – 19 Countries In 10 Regions
- Issues For Advanced vs Less Developed Countries (LDCs)
- Spectrum Overview
- Advanced Markets – EU, Advanced Asia/Pac
- EU
- Asia/Pacific Advanced Markets
- Fixed Line Carriers
- Vodafone
- LDC – BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, China, India) Asia/Pac, EEur, Lat Am, MidE
- Test Case – India
- India – Telecom Status and Overview
- India – Spectrum and WiMAX Activity
- India – WiMAX Outlook
- Major Potential Impact – OLPC (one laptop per child)
- LDC Business Model
- Differences From US/Advanced Market Models
- Demographics and Markets
- Network Investment, By Categories
- Revenue, By Categories
- Expenses, By Categories
- Profit & Loss
- ARPU, CPGA
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – US Forecast
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – Advanced Markets Forecast
- WiMAX Growth Outlook – LDCs Forecast
- WiMAX – Total Global Growth Outlook
- US Market – The Accelerant In the Global WiMAX Firestorm
List of Charts:
- Chart 1-1 Cellphones per POP & Telephone Lines per POP
- Chart 2-1 WiMAX Certification Process and Development Waves
- Chart 2-2 Average Network Latency by Technology
- Chart 2-3 Spectral Efficiency
- Chart 2-4 Mobile Wireless BB Development vs Wired Development
- Chart 2-5 Mobile Wireless BB Development
- Chart 3-1 Converged WiMAX Network Diagram
- Chart 3-2 Current Mobility Network Diagram
- Chart 3-3 MSO-Hybrid Fiber (HFC) Architecture
- Chart 3-4 FiOS Network Diagram
- Chart 4-1 Handheld Wholesale Price Trends Learning Curves
- Chart 7-1 700 Auction – FCC Economic Area Groupings (EAGs)
- Chart 7-2 700 Auction – FCC Cellular Market Areas (CMAs) and Economic Areas (EAs)
- Chart 8-1 Revenue Growth – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-2 Operating Income Growth – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-3 Oper Income As % of Investment – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-4 ARPU Comparison – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 8-5 Growth of Consumer RGUs – 3 National WiMAX Models
- Chart 9-1 Penetration of Cellphones and Telephones By Region
- Chart 9-2 Internet and Broadband Penetration By Region
- Chart 9-3 Global WiMAX Spectrum Allocations
List of Figures:
- Figure 2-1 Criteria For RAN Ascendancy
- Figure 2-2 The Evolution of The Radio Air Interface Standard
- Figure 2-3 MIMO Base Station and Handhelds Diagram
- Figure 2-4 The Wireless Broadband Access Evolution
List of Tables:
- Table 1-1 Global WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 1-2 Mobile Subscribers & 3G Subscribers, 2006
- Table 2-1 GSM/UMTS Technology Evolution
- Table 2-2 CDMA Technology Evolution
- Table 2-3 Expected Certification Dates For WiMAX Products
- Table 2-4 Radio Access Networks Standards – US Progression
- Table 2-5 MIMO Data Rates
- Table 2-6 Data Throughput (Commercially deployable) WiMAX vs Cellular 2007-2009
- Table 2-7 WiMAX Equivalency To Other Technologies – Video & Other Applications
- Table 2-8 DSL vs Cable Modems – OECD Countries
- Table 2-9 Broadband Wired vs Wireless Capabilities, Downlink Speeds 2007 & 2008-2010
- Table 3-1 Magnet Services and Add-Ons: Cable, Wireless, Telco
- Table 3-2 Telecom Network Technology Development Cycle – Pre-2000
- Table 3-3 Telecom Network Digital Media Development Cycle – Today
- Table 3-4 Wireless Network Music Development Cycle – 2001-07
- Table 3-5 Data Revenues of Leading US Mobile Carriers, 2006
- Table 3-6 Mobile Data/Content Use, By Category 1/07
- Table 3-7 Broadband Household Growth In US – 2000-2006
- Table 3-8 Summary of Three Business Approaches For WiMAX
- Table 4-1 Intel – 2006-07 WiMAX Chip Developments
- Table 4-2 Emerging Component Suppliers, WiMAX, MIMO, Handsets
- Table 4-3 Infrastructure Vendor Positioning
- Table 4-4 WiMAX Equipment Vendors Projected Global Market Shares, to 2010
- Table 4-5 WiMAX Handheld and Device Availability
- Table 4-6 Mobile WiMAX HH/Device Models as of 3/07
- Table 5-1 Clearwire Growth – No of POPs Covered, 2006-08
- Table 5-2 Clearwire Q1 2007 Operating Results
- Table 6-1 25 GHz Spectrum Holdings – Sprint & Nextel
- Table 6-2 Sprint BB Wireless Initiatives 2004-05
- Table 6-3 Sprint – WiMAX Plans as of Q1 2007
- Table 6-4 Sprint and Nextel Comparison
- Table 6-5 Sprint-Cable Developments 2006-07
- Table 7-1 US Wireline Telco Access Line Losses, 2000-2007
- Table 7-2 US Growth of Cable and Direct Broadcast Satellite, 2001-06
- Table 7-3 UHF 700 Auctions Spectrum – Original Breakdown – 60 MHz
- Table 7-4 UHF 700 Auctions Spectrum – Tentative New Breakdown – 60 MHz
- Table 8-1 Five WiMAX Business Model Cases
- Table 8-2 National Rollout Models – Year-5 Penetration Rates, By Service (RGU) & Bundle Type
- Table 8-3 National Rollout Models – Year-5 – Summary Results
- Table 8-4 National Rollout Models – Year-5 – Key Metrics
- Table 8-5 Summary of Base Station Costs, By Category
- Table 8-6 Projected End User Device Costs/Pricing 2008-2012
- Table 8-7 Estimated Costs For SME WiMAX System
- Table 8-8 Business Model Service Mix & Bundles
- Table 8-9 3 National Rollout Models – Service Pricing
- Table 8-10 Mid-Sized City Model #1 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-11 Mid-Sized City Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-12 Mid-Sized City Service Revenue Growth
- Table 8-13 Mid-Sized City Expense Growth
- Table 8-14 Mid-Sized City Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-15 Mid-Sized City ARPU & CPGA
- Table 8-16 DSL Replacement Model #2 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-17 DSL Replacement Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-18 DSL Replacement Service Revenue Growth
- Table 8-19 DSL Replacement Expense Growth
- Table 8-20 DSL Replacement Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-21 DSL Replacement ARPU & CPGA
- Table 8-22 Mobile Internet Model #3 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-23 Mobile Internet Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-24 Mobile Internet Service Revenue Growth
- Table 8-25 Mobile Internet Expense Growth
- Table 8-26 Mobile Internet Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-27 Mobile Internet ARPU & CPGA
- Table 8-28 Now Communications Model #4 – Investment Summary
- Table 8-29 Now Communications Service Pricing Structure
- Table 8-30 Now Communications Revenue Growth
- Table 8-31 Now Communications Expense Growth
- Table 8-32 Now Communications Summary P&L Statement
- Table 8-33 Now Communications ARPU & CPGA
- Table 9-1 Selected 80216-2005 Developments
- Table 9-2 Selected Countries and Regions
- Table 9-3 19 Countries – Demographic and Telecom Overview
- Table 9-4 Regions Ranked By: Cellphones/POP; Telephone Lines/POP, Internet Users/POP Broadband Users/POP
- Table 9-5 Major EU Country WiMAX Spectrum Auctions
- Table 9-6 Spectrum Frequency vs No of Cellsites – US
- Table 9-7 India – Telecom Subscribers 2005-2006 (Mil)
- Table 9-8 India – WiMAX Potential Base Stations, 2010
- Table 9-9 LDC Model #5 – Investment Summary
- Table 9-10 LDC Service Pricing Structure
- Table 9-11 LDC Service Revenue Growth
- Table 9-12 LDC Expense Growth
- Table 9-13 LDC Summary P&L Statement
- Table 9-14 US WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 9-15 Advanced Markets (Non-US) WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 9-16 LDC Markets – WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
- Table 9-17 Global WiMAX Market Forecasts, 2012
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