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European Wholesale Gas Market Development
Datamonitor, July 2008, Pages: 27
CATALYST
SUMMARY
Sources
ANALYSIS
A number of structural factors are required to catalyze the development of wholesale gas markets: 2
The development of wholesale markets tends to follow a preset pattern of distinct stage 2
The wholesale market development cycle gradually builds up enough momentum to spawn the creation of wholesale support services 3
Once sufficient structural factors are in place, the necessary support services required for wholesale market development begin to emerge 4
The market based factors supporting hub development are crucial elements in facilitating and developing traded markets 5
Wholesale gas markets are required by different players throughout the value chain for different reasons 6
Currently Europes wholesale gas markets cover the full range of developmental stages 6
Analysis of levels of churn provide an insight into levels of liquidity and wholesale market development 6
Current levels of churn in individual wholesale markets varies significantly 7
Datamonitor segments wholesale maturity and liquidity into 4 distinct categories 8
Nascent 8
Emerging 8
Established 8
Mature 8
Europes current wholesale gas markets cover the full spectrum of segmentations 9
The NBP has shown strong and consistent growth to become Europes leading wholesale gas market 10
Zeebrugge and the TTF maintain their role in the established segment of wholesale development, behind the NBP 11
Europes emerging wholesale gas markets are seeing continued expansion in both volumes and liquidity 12
Europes nascent markets are seeing renewed impetus towards development 13
Austria 13
Denmark 13
Spain 13
Price efficiency levels in the European wholesale markets show varying ranges of volatility 14
Our Deviation Days Index measures price movement ranges and gives insight into levels of price efficiency 14
Levels of volatility in the established markets have been markedly decreasing 15
The immaturity and lack of liquidity in the emerging markets means that their levels of price efficiency lag far behind the NBP 16
The polarization of the markets will reduce in the wake of market opening 17
Datamonitor forecasts future levels of wholesale liquidity by examining a range of structural factors on a weighted average basis 17
The structural factors used to predict wholesale market development produce a sliding scale of scores 18
Wholesale market development potential varies widely across the EU 27 gas markets 19
The markets in the limited progress segmentation currently lack the necessary structural factors required to catalyze wholesale activity 19
Despite showing some degree of progress over the forecast period, markets in the discernable progress segment will remain undeveloped 20
In addition to the three established markets, there are six countries in the substantial progress segment 20
APPENDIX
Summary of Scores 22
Scoring methodology for Structural Factors used to rate markets 23
The 'Impetus' metric examines the progress already made, and being made, towards the establishment of a wholesale market 23
The 'Gas Penetration' metric examines the degree to which gas has made an impact to the energy mix of a specific country 23
The 'Future Role of Gas Fired Power' metric has been used because gas fired power generators are often significant wholesale gas market users 24
The 'Demand Growth' metric is used because demand growth can, in itself, be a key catalyst to wholesale activity 24
The 'Wholesale Market Fragmentation' metric gives an indication of the potential impact on liquidity of upstream supplies and gas imports 25
The 'Retail Market Fragmentation' metric provides insight on the impact on wholesale development of retail market players needing to source gas 26
The 'Interconnectivity' metric is used to highlight current and future opportunities for wholesale liquidity to be drive by cross-border trading 27
Ask the analyst 27
Disclaimer 27
List of Tables
Table 1: Detailed breakdown of scores 22
List of Figures
Figure 1: The five distinct stages of wholesale market progression 2
Figure 2: Wholesale support services emerge as the cycle builds momentum 3
Figure 3: The interaction between structural and support factors creates a snowball effect 4
Figure 4: The key support elements to wholesale market growth 5
Figure 5: Different players engage in wholesale trading for different reasons 6
Figure 6: Europes newer, less well developed, markets lag far behind the older markets in terms of churn ratios 7
Figure 7: Market development in Europe 9
Figure 8: The NBP remains Europes most liquid traded wholesale market 10
Figure 9: Both the TTF and Zeebrugge have high levels of liquidity and churn rates 11
Figure 10: Levels of liquidity and churn rates in the emerging wholesale markets show a high degree of diversity 12
Figure 11: Levels of price movement deviation from the NBP have been decreasing in the TTF and Zeebrugge markets in the past year 15
Figure 12: The emerging markets clearly lack the levels of volatility and price efficiency seen at the NBP 16
Figure 13: Structural factors used by Datamonitor to determine wholesale liquidity 17
Figure 14: Wholesale Market Development Potential Scale 18
Figure 14: Wholesale market development potential (increasing left to right) 19
Figure 16: Scoring scale 23
Figure 17: Scoring scale 23
Figure 18: Scoring scale 24
Figure 19: Scoring scale 24
Figure 20: Scoring scale 25
Figure 21: Scoring scale 26
Figure 22: Scoring scale 27
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