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Singapore Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2008
Business Monitor International, Sep 2008, Pages: 74
The US$512mn Singaporean pharmaceutical market is characterised by modest growth, a low uptake of generic drugs and strong sales of branded products promoted by multinationals. Through to 2012, BMI is forecasting CAGR of 8.53%. Singapore is set to be the world’s third-fastest ageing country, as the proportion of those aged 65 and above will double, to 20% by 2020. The two main cause of this are a low birth rate and the high quality of healthcare.
A greying population will mean that there are fewer people contributing to the economy, which constrains GDP projections. According to UBS bank, the sharp reduction in labour growth resulting from the ageing of population will cause average GDP expansion to slow to 3.9% between 2006 and 2030, down from 6.9% from 1981 to 2005.
Sales of generic drugs are very modest in affluent Singapore. BMI calculates the value of the sector to be just US$50mn at the end of 2007, representing just 9.8% of the total pharmaceutical market (generic drugs + over-the-counter (OTC) medicines + patented preparations). However, as with most other developed countries, the city-state is increasingly becoming more cost conscious when it comes to healthcare. Accordingly, we expect the value of the generic drug segment to reach US$83mn in 2012, with growth slightly outpacing the patented drug sector.
Providing a boost to early-stage research, the Singapore Stock Exchange said in July 2008 that may consider listings of life science companies with no financial track record. The only criteria needed for inclusion would be the ability to generate revenue and attract investors. If the plan goes ahead, BMI believes that more start-up companies will be attracted to Singapore.
It is BMI's view that Singapore's US$300mn medical device market is set for a period of robust growth. The main drivers will be increased spending on healthcare and a growing medical tourism sector. Expansion of the city-state's biomedical research initiative will also boost the sector. Through to 2012, we are forecasting compound annual growth (CAGR) of 5.01%, which is marginally more than our projection for the pharmaceutical market.
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