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Czech Republic Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2008
Business Monitor International, Oct 2008, Pages: 70
The Czech Republic Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Czech Republic's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The US$3.64bn Czech drug market should continue to grow healthily over the forecast period, although we believe the days of double-digit growth have come to an end. Nevertheless by 2012 we expect the pharmaceutical sales to reach US$5.42bn. Prescription drugs will retain an 80%-plus market share, however, the over-the-counter (OTC) market should expand strongly.
Indeed based on the size of the market, forecasted growth and the Czech Republic’s sound Country Risk scores, We believe the Czech OTC market is one of the most attractive for investors in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We have also introduced a medical devices chapter into the report for Q4. The sector holds good prospects for equipment manufacturers, with the market expected to expand from US$0.75bn in 2007 to US$1.23bn in 2012. Increased private sector involvement in hospitals should help the device market outperform the pharmaceutical market through to 2012. Regulatory-wise, health fees continue to cause controversy in the sector and remain a key battleground on the political front. Shadow health minister from the senior opposition party, the Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD), recently claimed that healthcare has become 60% more expensive for patients over the past two years a point denied by the ruling coalition.
The future of the reform in the Czech Republic remains ominous. Our political risk team believes that there are roughly equal chances of the current Civic Democratic Party-led (ODS) government managing to hold on to its position into 2009 and the CSSD taking the reins after a no-confidence vote. However, if the CSSD were to take power, its outspoken views on the reforms would doubtless lead to a change in direction. Our healthcare expenditure forecasts remain based on current reforms.
However, we note that there are considerable risks to predictions, particularly concerning private expenditure. Company news has been dominated by Sanofi-Aventis’ so-far unsuccessful bid to acquire Zentiva. Sanofi initially launched its bid on June 18 2008, outbidding a rival bid from Czech financial group PPF. Despite Sanofi’s current 24.9% stake in Zentiva, the French firm has so far been unable to persuade the board to accept its bid.
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