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Indonesia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2008
Business Monitor International, Dec 2008, Pages: 85
Indonesia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Compared to the Q308 report, the value of Indonesia’s pharmaceutical market at the end of our forecast period has increased fractionally, from US$5.79bn to US$5.84bn. The reason behind the 1% rise is revised macroeconomic figures provided by BMI’s Country Risk team, which in turn influences our Drug Expenditure Forecast Model. Because we use a top-down approach, this amendment in turn reflects on the five-year projections for patented products, generic drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines. Continuing the regional trend, Indonesian drugmakers complained in August 2008 about the rising cost of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from China. In order to protect their margins, pharmaceutical firms have increased their prices marginally and say that further hikes are possible. While the solution to this problem is to engage in full-spectrum manufacturing, it is BMI’s view that this is not an option for smaller firms, due to the costs involved.
Approximately 40% of pharmaceuticals currently sold in Indonesia are counterfeits, according to estimates by the International Pharmaceutical Manufacturer Group (IPMG). This is a big increase from 2007, when imitation medicines comprised a quarter of the market. As such, the health of patients is increasingly being compromised, drugmakers are losing more money and the state is seeing even less revenue from taxes.
Indonesia’s medical device market is characterised by imports, double-digit growth and an unmet need for affordable high-end offerings. Because of these attributes, BMI believes that medical equipment producers based in developed states should target the South East Asian country over the medium term. Extrapolating data from the US Commercial Service, we estimate that the value of the sector will reach US$234mn by the end of 2008. Expansion of the medical device market will outpace that of the pharmaceutical sector, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.98% is projected through to 2012, when sales are expected to reach US$381mn.
The Health Legal Aid Institute (LBH Kesehatan) expressed objections in May 2008 towards a government plan to privatise state pharmaceutical company PT Kimia Farma through an initial public offering (IPO), arguing that it could threaten the provision of low-priced medicines for the poor. A merger was the preferred option.
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