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Greece Commercial Banking Report Q4 2008
Business Monitor International, Jan 2009, Pages: 49
The Greece Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's commercial banking industry.
The figures on the tables above provide a snapshot of the banking sector in Greece and the changes that have taken place within it over the last year. To place the figures in context, it may be useful to bear in mind certain aspects of the 59 countries whose banking sectors are currently surveyed by BMI. Across this sample the median growth in assets in local currency terms was 21.3% (in Colombia), the median loan growth was 21.6% (in India), and the median growth in deposits was 17.9% (in Brazil). On their own, the ratios of loans to deposits, assets, and GDP mean little. However, they can provide useful hints when combined with other data. Across the 59 countries, the median loan/deposit ratio is 92.3% (in Greece). The median loan/asset ratio is 56.0% (in Poland). The median loan/GDP ratio was 63.9% in India.
From Q308, we have included a section that examines the risks associated with each country’s banking sector in a new way. We have essentially sought to ask this question: to what extent will the banking sector likely need to source funding from banks in the rest of the world over the course of 2008? Given that the answer is not necessarily, on its own, meaningful, we have looked at other key issues such as the size and recent movement in the loan/deposit ratio, macro-economic developments and recent movements in financial markets.
In general, the first half of 2008 has been kind to fixed-income investors and money market participants in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Inter-bank lending rates have come down, thanks to the actions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve, among others. Benchmark bond yields have generally fallen in absolute terms and, in some cases, relative to yields in developed countries. This is in spite of the fact that, in many of the countries in the region, the statistics from the banking sector are worrying given the economic imbalances that persist. As in previous reports, we include a SWOT analysis for the Czech Republic. We suggest that the two most important strengths of the Czech banking sector remain the macroeconomic stability in a country that has one of the highest per capita GDP’s in Central and Eastern Europe, and the fact that the system is dominated by multinational banks who have exhibited discipline in lending. The main weakness is that the banking sector, which is not large in world terms, is maturing. Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits of potential returns. It does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurance potential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends on an assessment of the risks to the realization of potential returns. This reflects BMI’s assessments of overall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment. Greece’s overall CBBER is 66.9. The banking market structure elements of the limits to potential returns have a slightly higher score than the country elements (66.9 versus 64.0). The banking market structure elements of the risks to the realization of returns have a significantly higher score than the country risk rating (86.7 versus 64.5).
For all the macro-economic problems, we assess Greece having the highest CBBER in Central and Eastern Europe.
Also available
Greece Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008
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