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Serbia Food and Drink Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, Jan 2009, Pages: 69
Serbia Food Drink Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's food and drink industry.
In this revised Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings for Q109, Serbia has slipped back to occupy the bottom position within the table of 14 markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by a clear margin. Investors have reasons to be wary of unresolved political and economic issues, which include widespread corruption as well as large-scale grey economy activities. Serbia also continues to be let down by a low score for current as well as forecast food consumption per capital, held back largely by modest GDP per capital. On a positive note, per-capital consumption of beverages, both soft and alcoholic, is high, with opportunities in these sub sectors clearly being recognised by foreign players. Another factor working in favour of companies willing to risk involvement in Serbia’s food and drink market is the country’s slow but steady progress towards reintegration into the wider European community.
In terms of industry developments, Q408 has shown less dynamism than the previous parts of the year, under the cloud of the global economic crisis and resultant lowering of consumer confidence. A number of deals – or the lack of thereof – indicate troubled times ahead. For example, in October 2008, confectionery maker Bambi Banat announced a buyout of a further 3% of its shares, having previously reacquired around 6.5%. The move was prompted by the desire to stop a further slide of its stock price. Shortly prior to this, UK-based Salford Investment Fund postponed the planned sale of its share in the Serbian water producer Knjaz Miloš, quoting the global financial crisis as the reason. PepsiCo as well as The Coca-Cola Company have been rumoured to be among the list of possible buyers of the Serbian water bottler, although the latter refuted any such connection in March 2008.
Nevertheless, there are reasons for optimism. A report published by Zenith International in October 2008 revealed that the sales of water in Eastern Europe continued to rise, reaching EUR5bn in 2007. In Serbia, volume sales rose by 22% year-on-year (y-o-y), with the country recording the highest growth rate within the Eastern European region. The beer segment has also received a considerable investment in the form of a joint venture – United Serbian Breweries (USB) – between Dutch Heineken and Efes Breweries International (EBI), which is owned by Turkish beer company Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi. The two companies will close one of the three breweries and scale down manufacturing capacity at the remaining two, in order to adjust to market needs and improve profitability. Nevertheless, the new entity is to invest EUR50mn (US$67mn) over the 2008-2011 period, as well as look to increase its export business.
Economic difficulties are also not holding back investment in Serbia’s mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, with German retail operator Metro Group in November 2008 confirming that it will continue to invest in Serbia, having already ploughed EUR100mn into the country since its 2004 entry. The announcement shortly followed the news that Idea, a subsidiary of Croatian food company Agrokor already present in the Serbian MGR market with two hypermarkets, will use a loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to expand its presence in the country.
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