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Slovenia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, Feb 2009, Pages: 66
The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In the Q109 Business Environment Ranking matrix, Slovenia slightly improved its position in the matrix. The country is now ranked 12th, out of the 18 markets surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region (including Uzbekistan for the first time), having previously occupied a joint 13th position. Overall, Slovenia’s pharmaceutical market attractiveness suffers from a small market size and low forecast growth, although high per capital GDP, a mature demographic profile, and widespread health awareness represent some of the draws for drug makers’ involvement in the country.
The Slovenian drug market is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of just over 2% (in US dollar terms) over the coming five years. Consequently, the market value is expected to reach only US$776mn by 2013, up by 9.3% from the estimated 2007 figure of US$710mn, indicating its maturity and the lack of substantial longer-term opportunities. Local currency sales will post a slightly better annual average (of around 4%), reaching EUR613mn by the end of 2013. The prescription market will continue to dominate, while the generics segment volumes will benefit from cost containment, despite growing at lower rates in terms of value, due to the same factor.
In terms of domestic pharmaceutical industry, one of the two leading players, Krka, continued to expand its operations abroad, in the light of the restricted market opportunities at home. In November 2008, Krka acquired Austrian pharmaceutical company Alternova Arzneimittel GmbH, while also announcing that it will increase its workforce and raise its net profit, in spite of the global economic crisis. In the preceding months, Krka opened a new chemical development laboratory near Novo Mesto, Slovenia, made an investment in two Chinese pharmaceutical companies, which will lower its production costs, and also reported strong H108 results. While its sales in both Slovenia and South Eastern Europe increased only marginally, as expected, sales in the Western Europe and overseas region rose by almost US$50mn year-on-year (y-o-y), which is a considerable feat, given the difficult conditions across the Western European region in particular.
However, while the Slovenian economy has held up well in the face of the growing credit crisis to date, we also expect a rapid weakening of the economy in 2009, which will have a significant impact on the shape of its pharmaceutical market. More specifically, given that exports have played a crucial role in Slovenia's recent economic success, the country will feel the strain of the region-wide downturn perhaps more than any other country. Therefore, Krka, as a major exporter, will be certain to feel at least some of the pinch. Still, given that Slovenia is expected to continue growing several times the pace of the euro zone average, there are some economic positives to take out of the slowdown in activity, including the retreat of inflation with lower commodity prices and a weaker euro.
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