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Mobile Music: Videos, Streamed, Full Tracks, Ringbacks, Ringtones & Downturn Analysis 2009-2013 (Fifth Edition)
Juniper Research, March 2009, Pages: 157
Glossary of Terms
Executive Summary
Introduction
Types of Mobile Music
The Market for Mobile Music Services
Figure ES1: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table ES1: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones,
Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music
Services and Music Videos) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Figure ES2: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones,
Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music
Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.
Table ES2: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones,
Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music
Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.
Key Hurdles to the Adoption of Mobile Music Services
Table ES3: Hurdles to the Adoption of Mobile Music Services
Recommendations
Recommendations for Operators
Recommendations for Vendors
Recommendations for Aggregators
Recommendations for Publishers
1. Mobile Music Market Development
1.1 The Opportunity for Mobile Music
1.1.1 DRM Issues are Being Resolved
1.1.2 Digital is the Preferred Mode of Purchase
1.1.3 Ubiquity
1.1.4 Proven Demand for Personal Mobile Music Enjoyment
1.1.5 Low Level of Penetration of Full Track Music Services
1.1.6 Convergent Services are Increasingly Desirable
1.1.7 Data Charges Are Being Reduced
1.1.8 Technological Advances - Networks
1.1.9 Technological Advances – Handsets
1.1.10 The iPhone Has Arrived
1.1.11 Vendors are Embedding Music Content within the Handset
1.1.12 Growth of Social Networking is Encouraging Service Adoption
1.2 Mobile Music Definition
1.3 Ringtones
1.3.1 Realtones
i. KDDI’s Chaku-uta
ii. Pan European Operator Services
1.3.2 Video Ringtones
1.3.3 Karaoke Ringtones
1.4 Ringback Tones
1.5 Full Track Downloads
1.5.1 Historical Background
i. Factors Influencing The Introduction of Full Track Downloads
ii. Operators Partnering with Major Entertainment Brands
1.5.2 Delivery of Full Track Mobile Music
i. Streaming
ii. Downloading
a. MMF Guidelines on Downloading Music Content
- Authentication
- Subscription
- Payment
- Transfer of Rights
- Music Selection and Transfer
- Verification and Activation of the Music
iii. Sideloading Music
iv. Embedded Music
1.6 Music Video Download Service
1.7 Value Chain/Value Web of Mobile Music Services
Figure 1.1 Traditional Mobile Music Value Chain
Figure 1.2: Mobile Music Value Chain
1.8 Business Models
1.8.1 Pay-Per-Download
Table 1.1: Polyphonic Ringtone, Realtone and Full track Download Prices ($), Selected
Operators and Markets
1.8.2 Subscription/Rental Models
1.8.3 Mobile Advertising
i. Advertising in Mobile Content
ii. Advertising in Mobile Music
a. Deployments of Ad-Funded Mobile Music Services
b. Prospects for Ad-funded Mobile Music Services
iii. Advertising – A Mobile SWOT Analysis
a. Strengths
b. Weaknesses
c. Opportunities
d. Threats
1.9 Billing for Mobile Music Services
1.9.1 Billing Models
i. SMS-based Billing
a. Standard SMS Payment Model
b. Premium SMS Payment Model
ii. SMS MT Reverse Billing
iii. Premium Rate SMS (PRSMS)
iv. Premium Rate MMS (PRMMS)
v. WAP Billing
a. Payforit
vi. Prepaid and Postpaid Billing
2. Forecasts
2.1 Forecast Definitions and Methodology
2.1.1 Forecast Definitions
2.1.2 Forecast Methodology
Figure: 2.1 Forecast Methodology.
2.2 Ringtone Market Forecasts
2.2.1 Ringtone Market Characteristics
2.2.2 Ringtone Users
Table 2.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013
Figure 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.2.3 Ringtone Traffic
Figure 2.3 Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year by 8 Key Regions
2007-2013
Table 2.3: Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year by 8 Key
Regions 2007-2013
Figure 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year (m) by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2103
Table 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year (m) by 8 Key Regions
20072013.
2.2.4 Mobile Ringtone Revenues
Table 2.5: Average Price ($) Paid Per Ringtone by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Figure 2.5: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.2.5 Mobile Ringtone Monthly ARPU
Figure 2.6: ARPU ($) for Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.7: ARPU ($) for Mobile Ringtones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.3 Ringback Tone Market
2.3.1 Ringback Tone Users
Table 2.8: Mobile Users (%) Who Use Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013
Figure 2.7: Mobile Users (m) Who Use Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.9: Mobile Users (m) Who Use Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.3.2 Ringback Tone Usage Levels
Figure 2.8: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.10: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Figure 2.9: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.11: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) by
Key Regions 2007-2013
2.3.3 Ringback Tone Revenues
Table 2.12: Average Price ($) Paid Per Monthly Ringback Tone Subscription by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Figure 2.10: Total Revenues ($m) from Ringback Tone Subscriptions by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.13: Total Revenues ($m) from Ringback Tone Subscriptions by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.3.4 Ringback Tone Monthly ARPU
Figure 2.11: Monthly ARPU ($) for Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.14: Monthly ARPU ($) for Ringback Tones by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.4 OTA Full Track Music Downloads Market
2.4.1 OTA Full Track Music Download Users
Table 2.15: Mobile Users (%) Who Download OTA Full Track Music by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013
Figure 2.12: Mobile Users (m) Who Download OTA Full Track Music by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.16: Mobile Users (m) Who Download OTA Full Track Music by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.4.2 OTA Full Track Download Traffic
Figure 2.13: Average Number of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.17: Average Number of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Figure 2.14: Total Number (m) of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.18: Total Number (m) of OTA Full Track Music Downloads per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.4.3 OTA Full Track Music Download Revenues
Table 2.19: Average Price Paid ($) Per OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key
Regions 2007-2013
Figure 2.15: Total Revenues ($m) from OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.20: Total Revenues ($m) from OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key
Regions 2007-2013
2.4.4 OTA Full Track Music Download Monthly ARPU
Figure 2.16: ARPU ($) for OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2013
Table 2.21: ARPU ($) for OTA Full Track Music Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
2.5 Subscription-based Rental and Streamed Services
2.5.1 Subscription-based Music Service Users
Table 2.22: Mobile Users (%) Who Subscribe to Subscription/Streamed Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2006-2013
Figure 2.17: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Subscription/Streamed Music Services by 8
Key Regions 2006-2013
Table 2.23: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Subscription/Streamed Services by 8
Key Regions 2007-2013
Figure 2.18: Total Users (m) of Subscription Services split by Subscriptions/Streamed
Services and Paid-for-Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.24: Total Users (m) of Subscription Services split by Subscriptions/Streamed
Services and Paid-for-Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
2.5.2 Number of Monthly Full Track/Streamed Music Subscriptions
Figure 2.19: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.25: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year by 8
Key Regions 2007-2013.
Figure 2.20: Total Number (m) of Monthly Music Subscription Services per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.26: Total Number (m) of Monthly Music Subscriptions/Services per Year by
Key Regions 2007-2013.
2.5.3 Mobile Music Subscription Service Revenues
Table 2.27: Average Price Paid ($) Per Monthly Music Subscription by 8 Key Regions,
2007-2013.
Figure 2.21: Total Revenues ($m) from Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.28: Total Revenues ($m) from Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
2.5.4 Mobile Music Subscription Service Monthly ARPU
Figure 2.22: ARPU ($) for Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013.
Table 2.29: ARPU ($) for Subscriptions to Mobile Music Services by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013.
2.6 Music Video Market
2.6.1 Music Video Users
Table 2.30: Mobile Users (%) Who Subscribe to Music Videos by 8 Key Regions 2006- 2013
Figure 2.23: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Music Videos by 8 Key Regions 2007- 2013.
Table 2.31: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Music Videos by 8 Key Regions 2007-
2013.
2.6.2 Number of Music Video Downloads
Figure 2.24: Average Number of Music Video Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.32: Average Number of Music Video Downloads per User per Year by 8 Key
Regions 2007-2013.
Figure 2.25: Total Number (m) of Mobile Music Video Downloads per Year by 8 Key
Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.33: Total Number (m) of Mobile Music Video Downloads per Year by 8 Key
Regions 2007-2013.
2.6.3 Mobile Music Video Revenues
Table 2.34: Average Price Paid ($) Per Music Video Download by 8 Key Regions, 2007- 2013.
Figure 2.26: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.35: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
2.6.4 Mobile Music Video Monthly ARPU
Figure 2.27: ARPU ($) for Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.36: ARPU ($) for Subscriptions to Mobile Music Video Downloads by 8 Key
Regions 2007-2013.
2.7 Total Market for Mobile Music
2.7.1 End-User Generated Revenues
Figure 2.28: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones & Realtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.
Table 2.37: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones & Realtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by Product 2007-2013.
2.7.2 Advertising Revenues: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
Figure 2.29: Total Revenues ($m) from Advertising in Mobile Music. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013.
Table 2.38: Total Revenues ($m) from Advertising in Mobile Music. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2013.
Figure 2.30: Mobile Music Adspend ($m) Market Forecast Scenario Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2008-2013
Table 2.39: Mobile Music Adspend ($m) Market Forecast Scenario Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2008-2013
Figure 2.31: Mobile Music Adspend Market Growth Rate Comparison (%) (Best Case; Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.40: Mobile Music Adspend Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (%) (Best Case; Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
3. Recommendations
3.1 Recommendations for Operators
3.2 Recommendations for Vendors
3.3 Recommendations for Aggregators
3.4 Recommendations for Publishers
4. Hurdles
4.1 Macro Economic Issues
4.2 The User Interface
4.2.1 Difficulty in Discovering Services and Content
i. Awareness is Key
ii. Increased Awareness During 2008
4.2.2 Difficulty in Accessing Services and Content
1. Historical Time to Content
ii. Improvements in Time to Content in 2008
4.2.3 Difficulty in Navigating Services and Content
4.2.4 Difficulty in Utilising Multiple Applications Simultaneously
4.3 Handset Form, Capabilities
4.3.1 Form Factor
4.3.2 Capacity
4.3.3 Battery Life
4.4 Network Speed and Coverage
4.4.1 Opportunities Provided by Upgrade to 3.5G and Beyond
4.5 Service Pricing
4.5.1 Download Prices
Table 4.1: Cost of Ringtones, Full Tracks and Ringtone/Full Track Premiums of Selected Operators
i. How Price Points Have Been Sustained
4.5.2 Subscription Services
4.6 Cost of Data Services
Table 4.2: UK Operator Data Prices ($), 2008
4.7 User Confidence
4.7.1 Ringtones
4.7.2 Full track Download
4.8 Rights Management
4.9 Industry Structure
4.10 Localisation
5. Regulation and Controls
5.1 Regulations for Mobile Music
5.1.1 Anti-piracy Regulations
i. International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI)
ii. Australasian Performing Rights Association (APRA)
iii. Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA)
a. Music Compensation Agreement with NSAI & SGA
iv. Case Study: TRIPS Consultation
5.1.2 Copyrights Acts
i. Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988
ii. US Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA)
iii. European Commission - Collective Cross-border Management of Copyright and Related Rights for Legitimate Online Music Services (2005/737/EC)
5.1.3 Digital Rights Management
i. Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
a. OMA-DRM
ii. Case Study: The French Anti-piracy Law 2006
5.2 Other Regulations – Mobile Content
5.2.1 Self Regulation – The Operators’ Approach
i. Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)
ii. Internet Content Rating Association (ICRA)
5.2.2 PhonepayPlus
i. Significant Fines Levied by PhonepayPlus to December 2008
ii. Review of Mobile Premium Services
5.2.3 OFCOM
5.2.4 CTIA
5.2.5 Pan-European Legislation
i. Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy Directive 95/46/EC
ii. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)
iii. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)
iv. The E-money Directive
6. Players in Mobile Music Services
6.1 Content Providers: the Major Labels
6.1.1 EMI Music
6.1.2 Sony BMG
6.1.3 Universal Music Group
i. D2C Offerings
6.1.4 Warner Music Group
6.2 Selected Operators
6.2.1 ‘3’ UK
6.2.2 Bharti Airtel
6.2.3 China Mobile
i. Company Background
ii. Products and Services
6.2.4 KDDI
6.2.5 O2 (Telefonica Europe)
6.2.6 SK Telecom
6.2.7 Sprint Nextel
6.2.8 Telenor
6.2.9 T-Mobile
6.2.10 Verizon Wireless
6.2.11 Vodafone
6.3 Aggregators
6.3.1 Buongiorno/Blinko!
i. Company Background
ii. Products and Services
6.3.2 Hurray Holding
6.3.3 Jamba/Jamster
6.3.4 Myxer
6.4 Vendors
6.4.1 Apple
i. Company Background
a. Recent Financial Performance
Table 6.1: Apple Revenue and Net Income Growth 2003-2008 ($m, FYE September 30)
ii. Products and Services
a. iPhone
Figure 6.1: Apple iPhone
b. iPhone 3G
iii. Partners and Clients
iv. Corporate Strategy
6.4.2 Motorola
i. Handsets: SLVRs, ROKRs and RAZRs
ii. iRadio
iii. MotoMusic
6.4.3 Nokia
i. Company Background
ii. Corporate Structure
iii. Products and Services
a. Nokia Nseries
Figure 6.2: Nokia N79 and N85
ii. Nokia XpressMusic
Figure 6.3: Nokia 5800 Xpress Music
iii. Visual Radio
iv. Nokia Music Store
v. Comes With Music
6.4.4 Sony Ericsson
i. Sony Ericsson Walkman Range
Figure 6.4: Sony Ericsson W902 Walkman
ii. PlayNow plus
6.5 Applications Providers
6.5.1 LiveWire Mobile (Groove Mobile)
6.5.2 Musiwave
6.5.3 Napster
i. Company Background
ii. Products and Services
6.5.4 Omnifone
i. Company Background
ii. Products and Services
6.5.5 Oxy Systems (phling!)
i. Company Background
ii. Products and Services
6.5.6 RealNetworks
i. Company Background
ii. Products and Services
a. RBTs and Related Services
b. Streamed Services
6.5.7 Shazam
i. Company Background
6.6 Billing Providers
6.6.1 Bango
i. Company Background
ii. Products and Services
Figure 6.5: Co-existence of On and Off-Portal Models
a. Bango Analytics
6.6.2 mBlox
i. Company Background
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