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Australian Mobile Services Market, 2009 Update & 2009-2013 Forecast
Telsyte, Sep 2009, Pages: 50
This latest research into Australia’s mobile market finds that the local mobile services industry grew strongly in the first six months of 2009 as if there was no recession. 3G users outnumbering 2G, VHA officially overtaking Optus in the all-important 3G space, and a slew of new MVNOs including supermarket giant Woolworths entering the market highlighted the country’s fastest-growing telecom segment in the first half of this year.
The market continued to show no sign of abating, with one million new mobile users added, taking the total number to 24.5 million or 113% of the population. “Mobile broadband, the rapid migration of 2G to 3G, and the Apple iPhone were notable contributors that drove half-year service revenue to enjoy double-digit annual growth,” said Warren Chaisatien, Telsyte Research Director. Serving one in four mobile users, the newly formed VHA was virtually neck-and-neck with Optus in terms of revenue, and became a strong number-two player in the high-ARPU 3G segment.
Telstra boasted the industry’s highest 3G user base and non-voice revenue mix, at almost 40% of its total revenue pool, while Optus displayed its resilience through an almost 50% expansion in its 3G user number. Although diluted by Vodafone’s 2G business, VHA enjoyed an industry-leading ARPU of $47.5. “All players, including MVNOs as a group, experienced a year-on-year ARPU rise, thanks to Australians’ growing love affair with non-voice services, which now make up well over one-third of their mobile bills,” observed Mr. Chaisatien. The first half of this year also witnessed a larger role by MVNOs following a slew of non-traditional MVNOs jumping on the mobile broadband bandwagon. The most notable new entrant was Woolworths, currently focusing on prepaid voice with prepaid mobile broadband on the horizon.
With the Australian and global economies starting to show signs of recovering, the local mobile market is projected to remain very strong. Telsyte estimates the number of mobile users will reach 25.3 million by the end of 2009, 116% penetration, rising to nearly 30 million in 2013, or 129% of the population. Service revenue, meanwhile, is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.4% to reach $16.8 billion in the next four years, with non-voice revenue exceeding voice revenue in as early as 2011. Two emerging content categories are expected to make up almost one-half of all revenues from paid content services by the end of the forecast period.
These research findings are from Telsyte’s latest research report titled, “Australian Mobile Services Market, June 2009 Update & 2009-2013 Forecast.” This study comprehensively analyses the key performance indicators (KPIs), including subscriber numbers, revenue and ARPU, of Telstra, Optus, VHA and MVNOs as of June 2009. Taking into account the industry’s fast developments and rapidly-changing competitive landscape, it also provides updated 5-year forecasts from 2009 to 2013.
Produced annually as the flagship report in Telsyte’s Market Analysis and Forecast Series, this study provides a detailed investigation and comprehensive analysis of the Australian mobile market. Key findings from this study include:
- Australia had 23.6 million mobile users at year-end 2008, a 110% penetration level and year-on-year growth of 8%. Service revenue reached $11.8 billion, representing 12% annual growth.
- Mobile broadband, whose average prices have declined by 50% in the past 12 months, was the fastest-growing non-voice segment, driven by 2 million users who spent close to $1 billion on the service last year.
- Telstra remained the largest player both in the overall mobile and 3G markets. After a lukewarm performance in 2007, Optus managed to turn around and became a rising star in the 3G segment last year.
- Vodafone and Hutchison, on the other hand, lost steam in the 3G market, leading to an ARPU decline for both companies, which have announced plans to merge their Australian operations.
- Even though both 2G and 3G ARPUs will each decline, overall market ARPU will continue to rise gradually in the next five years, thanks to the rapid user migration from 2G to 3G services and strong adoptions of mobile broadband.
- Mobile broadband user number will exceed five million in five years’ time. Nonetheless, it will hardly make a dent in the fixed broadband market as mobile broadband will mostly be used as a supplementary access technology.
- Carrier network upgrades will see Australia’s HSPA networks reach 42 Mbps by year-end 2009, with LTE deployments on-track for 2010/2011, resulting in download speeds up to 100 Mbps in the next couple of years.
- To take advantage of future market opportunities, Telsyte suggests carriers move away from price-based competition as consolidation takes hold, lead the still-nascent mobile ecosystems and leverage IT providers.
- Conclusion and recommendations.
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