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Commercial Vehicles Market Report 2009
Key Note Publications Ltd, Jan 2009, Pages: 134
We estimate that the apparent UK market for commercial vehicles was worth £4.3bn in 2008 — a 2.1% decline on the figure for 2007. In common with many other areas of UK industry, the commercial-vehicle sector is being badly affected by the global credit crisis.
The commercial-vehicle market has three distinct sectors: light commercial vehicles (LCVs), heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and buses and coaches. LCVs represent the largest sector of the market, although the number of new UK registrations of these vehicles is believed to have fallen in 2008. In contrast, new registrations of HGVs and new registrations of buses and coaches are both estimated to have increased between 2007 and 2008.
According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the UK motor industry is currently experiencing the most difficult economic conditions it has faced in 17 years. In September 2008, the number of new registrations of LCVs fell for the fifth consecutive month. With the exception of August, registrations of HGVs continued to increase each month, but the growth rate fell steeply and new orders are reportedly now in decline. The cause is the global `credit crunch' and subsequent economic downturn.
The reduction in demand is likely to affect UK production of commercial vehicles. Ford, one of the leading manufacturers of commercial vehicles in the UK, has already announced plans to reduce production of the Transit van at its Southampton plant. From 2011, the plant will build only the chassis-cab version of the Transit, with other versions being produced at Ford's plant in Turkey. According to Ford, the changes are necessary to make the Transit profitable in the competitive European commercial-vehicle market.
In July 2008, the SMMT forecast that new registrations of LCVs in the UK would fall again in 2009. By December 2008, the indications were that new registrations of HGVs would also decline in 2009, while new registrations of buses and coaches would be stable at best.
Demand for new commercial vehicles between 2010 and 2013 will depend on various factors, including any ongoing impact of the `credit crunch' and the general health of the UK economy. We forecast that the number of new commercial-vehicle registrations in the UK will decline again in 2010, but it is expected to start to show some improvement after that point.
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